Credibility

About: Credibility is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 13730 publications have been published within this topic receiving 331944 citations. The topic is also known as: believability & plausibility.

Credible threats in extortion

Abstract: There is a fundamental credibility problem in the extortion business: will the gang retaliate if I refuse to pay? Unlike reputation models, we emphasize the up-front investment choice by the gang of which potential victims are uncertain. For small numbers of victims only a no-extortion equilibrium exists. However, as the number of potential victims becomes large, this equilibrium disappears. The only subgame-perfect equilibria have extortion and expected loss from violence. We justify and examine the properties of one particular set of equilibria. The model can also shed light on credibility problems in settings other than extortion.

A longitudinal data analysis interpretation of credibility models

Abstract: In this paper, we develop links between credibility theory in actuarial science and longitudinal data models in statistics. Our primary contribution to actuarial science is to demonstrate that many additive credibility models can be expressed as special cases of the longitudinal data model. We, thereby, unify the many existing credibility models with this framework. In addition, a longitudinal data interpretation suggests additional models and techniques that actuaries can use in credibility ratemaking. We also apply standard statistical software, which has been developed to analyze longitudinal data models, to the private passenger automobile data of Hachemeister [Hachemeister, C.A., 1975. Credibility for regression models with applications to trend. In: Kahn, P.M. (Ed.), Credibility: Theory and Applications. Academic Press, New York, pp. 129–163].

Factors of Information Credibility for an Internet Advice Site

Abstract: Information credibility is important to Internet advice site vendors because they primarily build a revenue stream based on how credible consumers consider the information on the website. Unless consumers believe the website’s information is credible, they are not likely to be willing to act on the advice. This paper reports on an empirical study of how individual differences and initial site impressions affect perceptions of website information credibility. Results confirm that most of the proposed individual difference and initial impression variables play an important role in how consumers view the credibility of an unfamiliar website. Implications are included regarding adapting websites to take into account initial site impressions and individual differences.

The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con Out of Econometrics

Abstract: This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer's (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice. As we see it, the credibility revolution in empirical work can be traced to the rise of a design-based approach that emphasizes the identification of causal effects. Design-based studies typically feature either real or natural experiments and are distinguished by their prima facie credibility and by the attention investigators devote to making the case for a causal interpretation of the findings their designs generate. Design-based studies are most often found in the microeconomic fields of Development, Education, Environment, Labor, Health, and Public Finance, but are still rare in Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics. We explain why IO and Macro would do well to embrace a design-based approach. Finally, we respond to the charge that the design-based revolution has overreached.