Showing papers on "Credit risk published in 2013"

Risk in Islamic Banking

Abstract: This paper investigates risk and stability features of Islamic banking using a sample of 553 banks from 24 countries between 1999 and 2009. Small Islamic banks that are leveraged or based in countries with predominantly Muslim populations have lower credit risk than conventional banks. In terms of insolvency risk, small Islamic banks also appear more stable. Moreover, we find little evidence that Islamic banks charge rents to their customers for offering Sharia compliant financial products. Our results also show that loan quality of Islamic banks is less responsive to domestic interest rates compared to conventional banks.

Non-Core Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability ∗

Abstract: A lending boom is reflected in the composition of bank liabilities when traditional retail deposits (core liabilities) cannot keep pace with asset growth and banks turn to other funding sources (non-core liabilities) to finance their lending. We formulate a model of credit supply as the flip side of a credit risk model where a large stock of non-core liabilities serves as an indicator of the erosion of risk premiums and hence of vulnerability to a crisis. We find supporting empirical evidence in a panel probit study of emerging and developing economies.

Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions

Abstract: We present a model of sovereign debt in which, contrary to conventional wisdom, government defaults are costly because they destroy the balance sheets of domestic banks. In our model, better financial institutions allow banks to be more leveraged, thereby making them more vulnerable to sovereign defaults. Our predictions: government defaults should lead to declines in private credit, and these declines should be larger in countries where financial institutions are more developed and banks hold more government bonds. In these same countries, government defaults should be less likely. Using a large panel of countries, we find evidence consistent with these predictions.

Credit Supply During a Sovereign Debt Crisis

Abstract: We study the effect of the increase in Italian sovereign debt risk on credit supply on a sample of 670,000 bank-firm relationships between December 2010 and December 2011, drawn from the Italian Central Credit Register. To identify a causal link, we exploit the lower impact of sovereign risk on foreign banks operating in Italy than on domestic banks. We study firms borrowing from at least two banks and include firm x period fixed effects in all regressions to controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We find that Italian banks tightened credit supply: the lending of Italian banks grew by about 3 percentage points less than that of foreign banks, and their interest rates were 15-20 basis points higher, after the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis. We test robustness by splitting foreign banks into branches and subsidiaries, and then examine whether selected bank characteristics may have amplified or mitigated the impact. We also study the extensive margin of credit, analyzing banks' propensity to terminate existing relationships and to grant new loan applications. Finally, we test whether firms were able to compensate for the reduction of credit from Italian banks by borrowing more from foreign banks. We find that this was not the case, so that the sovereign crisis had an aggregate impact on credit supply.

Classification situations: : Life-chances in the neoliberal era

Abstract: This article examines the stratifying effects of economic classifications. We argue that in the neoliberal era market institutions increasingly use actuarial techniques to split and sort individuals into classification situations that shape life-chances. While this is a general and increasingly pervasive process, our main empirical illustration comes from the transformation of the credit market in the United States. This market works as both as a leveling force and as a condenser of new forms of social difference. The U.S. banking and credit system has greatly broadened its scope over the past twenty years to incorporate previously excluded groups. We observe this leveling tendency in the expansion of credit amongst lower-income households, the systematization of overdraft protections, and the unexpected and rapid growth of the fringe banking sector. But while access to credit has democratized, it has also differentiated. Scoring technologies classify and price people according to credit risk. This has allowed multiple new distinctions to be made amongst the creditworthy, as scores get attached to different interest rates and loan structures. Scores have also expanded into markets beyond consumer credit, such as insurance, real estate, employment, and elsewhere. The result is a cumulative pattern of advantage and disadvantage with both objectively measured and subjectively experienced aspects. We argue these private classificatory tools are increasingly central to the generation of ‘‘market-situations’’, and thus an important and overlooked force that structures individual life-chances. In short, classification situations may have become the engine of modern class situations. 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

Abstract: We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs faced by low quality firms, so the debt issuance of low quality firms is particularly useful for forecasting bond returns We show that a significant decline in issuer quality is a more reliable signal of credit market overheating than rapid aggregate credit growth We use these findings to investigate the forces driving time-variation in expected corporate bond returns

Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability

Abstract: This article analyses the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a ‘sovereign risk channel’ through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy cannot offset increased credit spreads because it is constrained by the zero lower bound or otherwise, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk may amplify the effects of cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even bolster economic activity.

Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Interbank Markets: Evidence from the Subprime Crisis

Abstract: We study the liquidity demand of large settlement banks in the UK and its effect on the money markets before and during the subprime crisis of 2007-08. We find that the liquidity demand of large settlement banks experienced a 30% increase in the period immediately following August 9 2007, the day when money markets froze, igniting the crisis. Following this shift, liquidity demand had a precautionary nature in that it rose on days of high payment activity and for banks with greater credit risk. This caused over- night interbank rates to rise, an effect virtually absent in the precrisis period.

Counterparty Credit Risk, Collateral and Funding: With Pricing Cases For All Asset Classes

Abstract: The book’s content is focused on rigorous and advanced quantitative methods for the pricing and hedging of counterparty credit and funding risk The new general theory that is required for this methodology is developed from scratch, leading to a consistent and comprehensive framework for counterparty credit and funding risk, inclusive of collateral, netting rules, possible debit valuation adjustments, re-hypothecation and closeout rules The book however also looks at quite practical problems, linking particular models to particular ‘concrete’ financial situations across asset classes, including interest rates, FX, commodities, equity, credit itself, and the emerging asset class of longevity The authors also aim to help quantitative analysts, traders, and anyone else needing to frame and price counterparty credit and funding risk, to develop a ‘feel’ for applying sophisticated mathematics and stochastic calculus to solve practical problems The main models are illustrated from theoretical formulation to final implementation with calibration to market data, always keeping in mind the concrete questions being dealt with The authors stress that each model is suited to different situations and products, pointing out that there does not exist a single model which is uniformly better than all the others, although the problems originated by counterparty credit and funding risk point in the direction of global valuation Finally, proposals for restructuring counterparty credit risk, ranging from contingent credit default swaps to margin lending, are considered

Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis ☆

Abstract: This paper investigates contagion between bank risk and sovereign risk in Europe over the period 2006-2011. Since this period covers various stages of the banking and sovereign crisis, it oers a fertile ground to analyze bank/sovereign risk spillovers. We de…ne contagion as excess correlation, i.e. correlation between banks and sovereigns over and above what is explained by common factors, using CDS spreads at the bank and at the sovereign level. Moreover, we investigate the determinants of contagion by analyzing bank-speci…c as well as country-speci…c variables and their interaction. We provide empirical evidence that various contagion channels are at work, including a strong home bias in bank bond portfolios, using the EBA's disclosure of sovereign exposures of banks. We …nd that banks with a weak capital and/or funding position are particularly vulnerable to risk spillovers. At the country level, the debt ratio is the most important driver of contagion.

Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity

Abstract: We present a model of financial crises that stem from endogenous complexity. We conceptualize complexity as banks' uncertainty about the financial network of cross exposures. As conditions deteriorate, cross exposures generate the possibility of a domino effect of bankruptcies. As this happens, banks face an increasingly complex environment since they need to understand a greater fraction of the financial network to assess their own financial health. Complexity dramatically amplifies banks' perceived counterparty risk, and makes relatively healthy banks reluctant to buy risky assets. The model also features a novel complexity externality.

Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk

Abstract: We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavytailed changes in the price of CDS protection against sovereign default, as well as dynamic volatilities and correlations that ensure that uncertainty and risk dependence can increase in times of stress. We apply the framework to euro area sovereign CDS spreads during the euro area debt crisis. Our results reveal significant time-variation in distress dependence and spill-over effects for sovereign default risk. We investigate market perceptions of joint and conditional sovereign risk around announcements of Eurosystem asset purchases programs, and document a strong impact on joint risk.

Sovereign ceilings ''lite''? The impact of sovereign ratings on corporate ratings

Abstract: Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a corporation above the sovereign (the ‘sovereign ceiling’), it appears that sovereign credit ratings remain a significant determinant of corporate credit ratings. We examine this link using data for advanced and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2009. Our main result is that a sovereign ceiling continues to affect the rating of corporations. The results also suggest that the influence of a sovereign ceiling on corporate ratings remains particularly significant in countries where capital account restrictions are still in place and with high political risk.

Financial statement comparability and credit risk

Abstract: Prior research shows that firms’ financial statement comparability improves the accuracy of market participants’ valuation judgments and thus may reduce firms’ costs of capital. Distinct from prior research focusing on the equity market, we develop measures of comparability relevant to debt market participants based on the within-industry variability of Moody’s adjustments to reported accounting numbers for the purposes of credit rating. We examine two sets of adjustments: (1) to the interest coverage ratio and (2) to non-recurring income items. We validate these comparability measures by providing evidence that greater comparability is associated with lower frequency and magnitude of split ratings by credit rating agencies. We predict and find that greater comparability is associated with (1) lower estimated bid-ask spreads for traded bonds, (2) lower credit spreads for both bonds and five-year credit default swaps, and (3) a steeper one- to five-year credit default swap term structure. Our results are consistent with financial statement comparability reducing debt market participants’ uncertainty about and pricing of firms’ credit risk.

Consumer credit risk: Individual probability estimates using machine learning

Abstract: Consumer credit scoring is often considered a classification task where clients receive either a good or a bad credit status. Default probabilities provide more detailed information about the creditworthiness of consumers, and they are usually estimated by logistic regression. Here, we present a general framework for estimating individual consumer credit risks by use of machine learning methods. Since a probability is an expected value, all nonparametric regression approaches which are consistent for the mean are consistent for the probability estimation problem. Among others, random forests (RF), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), and bagged k-nearest neighbors (bNN) belong to this class of consistent nonparametric regression approaches. We apply the machine learning methods and an optimized logistic regression to a large dataset of complete payment histories of short-termed installment credits. We demonstrate probability estimation in Random Jungle, an RF package written in C++ with a generalized framework for fast tree growing, probability estimation, and classification. We also describe an algorithm for tuning the terminal node size for probability estimation. We demonstrate that regression RF outperforms the optimized logistic regression model, kNN, and bNN on the test data of the short-term installment credits.

Can Investor-Paid Credit Rating Agencies Improve the Information Quality of Issuer-Paid Rating Agencies?

Abstract: This paper examines how the information quality of ratings from an issuer-paid rating agency (Standard and Poor’s) responds to the entry of an investor-paid rating agency, the Egan-Jones Rating Company (EJR). By comparing S&P’s ratings quality before and after EJR initiates coverage of each firm, we find a significant improvement in S&P’s ratings quality following EJR’s coverage initiation. S&P’s ratings become more responsive to credit risk and its rating changes incorporate higher information content. These results differ from the existing literature documenting a deterioration in the incumbents’ ratings quality following the entry of a third issuer-paid agency. We further show that the issuer-paid agency does not simply improve its ratings quality because it learns (mimics) EJR’s information. Rather, it seems to improve the ratings quality because EJR’s coverage has elevated its reputational concerns.

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

Abstract: We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign-currency-denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross-country correlations, and lower sensitivity to global risk factors. We discuss several major sources of credit spread differentials, including positively correlated credit and currency risk, selective default, capital controls, and various financial market frictions.

Estimating the Costs of Issuer-Paid Credit Ratings

Abstract: We compare the stability and timeliness of credit ratings produced by a traditional issuer-paid rating agency (Moody’s Investors Service) and a subscriber-paid rater (Rapid Ratings). Moody’s ratings exhibit less volatility but are slower to identify default risk. We control for Moody’s aversion to ratings volatility and still find its ratings lag Rapid Ratings’. More importantly, accuracy ratios indicate that Rapid Ratings provides a better ordinal ranking of credit risk. We quantify the loss avoidance associated with Rapid Ratings’ signals to estimate costs associated with regulatory and contractual systems based on issuer-paid ratings.

Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting

Abstract: Although portfolio management didn’t change much during the 40 years after the seminal works of Markowitz and Sharpe, the development of risk budgeting techniques marked an important milestone in the deepening of the relationship between risk and asset management. Risk parity then became a popular financial model of investment after the global financial crisis in 2008. Today, pension funds and institutional investors are using this approach in the development of smart indexing and the redefinition of long-term investment policies. Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting provides an up-to-date treatment of this alternative method to Markowitz optimization. It builds financial exposure to equities and commodities, considers credit risk in the management of bond portfolios, and designs long-term investment policy. This book contains the solutions of tutorial exercices which are included in Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting.

How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment

Abstract: Weather is a key source of income risk, especially in emerging market economies. This paper uses a randomized controlled trial involving Indian farmers to study how an innovative rainfall insurance product affects production decisions. The authors find that insurance provision induces farmers to invest more in higher-return but rainfall-sensitive cash crops, particularly among educated farmers. This shift in behavior occurs ex ante, when realized monsoon rainfall is still uncertain. The results suggest that financial innovation can mitigate the real effects of uninsured production risk.