Credit risk

About: Credit risk is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 18595 publications have been published within this topic receiving 382866 citations.

Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks’ risk classification policies

Abstract: This paper aims at improving our understanding of internal risk rating systems (IRS) at large banks, of the way in which they are implemented, and at verifying if IRS produce consistent estimates of banks’ loan portfolio credit risk. An important property of our work is that the size of our data set allows us to derive measures of credit risk without making any assumptions about correlations between loans, by applying Carey’s [Carey, Mark, 1998. Credit risk in private debt portfolios. Journal of Finance LIII (4), 1363–1387] non-parametric Monte Carlo re-sampling method. We find substantial differences between the implied loss distributions of two banks with equal “regulatory” risk profiles; both expected losses and the credit loss rates at a wide range of loss distribution percentiles vary considerably. Such variation will translate into different levels of required economic capital. Our results also confirm the quantitative importance of size for portfolio credit risk: for common parameter values, we find that tail risk can be reduced by up to 40% by doubling portfolio size. Our analysis makes clear that not only the formal design of a rating system, but also the way in which it is implemented (e.g. a rating grade composition; the degree of homogeneity within rating classes) can be quantitatively important for the shape of credit loss distributions and thus for banks’ required capital structure. The evidence of differences between lenders also hints at the presence of differentiated market equilibria, that are more complex than might otherwise be supposed: different lending or risk management “styles” may emerge and banks strike their own balance between risk-taking and (the cost of) monitoring (that risk).

Bank/Sovereign Risk Spillovers in the European Debt Crisis

Abstract: This paper investigates contagion between bank risk and sovereign risk in Europe over the period 2006-2011. Since this period covers various stages of the banking and sovereign crisis, it offers a fertile ground to analyze bank/sovereign risk spillovers. We define contagion as excess correlation, i.e. correlation between banks and sovereigns over and above what is explained by common factors, using CDS spreads at the bank and at the sovereign level. Moreover, we investigate the determinants of contagion by analyzing bank-specific as well as country-specific variables and their interaction. We provide empirical evidence that various contagion channels are at work, including a strong home bias in bank bond portfolios, using the EBA's disclosure of sovereign exposures of banks. We find that banks with a weak capital and/or funding position are particularly vulnerable to risk spillovers. At the country level, the debt ratio is the most important driver of contagion.

When Do Firms Default? A Study of the Default Boundary

Abstract: In structural models of risky debt default is triggered when the market value of the firm's assets falls below a certain solvency boundary. Based on market values of defaulting firms, I estimate the default boundary to be 66% of the face value of debt, and find support for models in which the default timing is chosen endogenously to maximize the value of equity. But although default predictions based on the value of assets can match observed average default frequencies, they misclassify a substantial number of firms in cross-section, affecting the accuracy of boundary-based models. I show that using empirical specifications for the boundary can noticeably improve the models' ability to explain observed credit spreads.

Improving Credit Information, Bank Regulation and Supervision: On the Role and Design of Public Credit Registries

Abstract: The authors analyze how data in public credit registries can be used both to strengthen bank supervision and to improve the quality of credit analysis by financial institutions. Empirical tests using public credit registry (PCR) data were performed in collaboration with the central banks in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The results of the empirical tests confirm the value of the data for credit risk evaluation and provide insights regarding its use in supervision, including in calculations of credit risk for capital and provisioning requirements, or as a check on a bank's internal ratings for the Basel II's internal rating-based approach. The authors also define a set of critical design parameters and use the results to comment on appropriate public registry design. Finally, they discuss the relationship between the different objectives of a PCR and how they influence the registry's design.