Credit risk

About: Credit risk is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 18595 publications have been published within this topic receiving 382866 citations.

Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Stability in the Eurozone

Abstract: This article presents evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) countries in the eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratios, and was the result of negative market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. It is argued that the systematic mispricing of sovereign risk in the eurozone intensifies macroeconomic instability, leading to bubbles in good years and excessive austerity in bad years.

Credit Default Swaps: A Survey

Abstract: Credit default swaps (CDS) have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. We review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades. We divide our survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. In the eight section, we discuss CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis.We close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.

Credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility with endogenous default and jump risk

Abstract: We propose a two-sided jump model for credit risk by extending the Leland–Toft endogenous default model based on the geometric Brownian motion. The model shows that jump risk and endogenous default can have significant impacts on credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility of equity options: (1) Jumps and endogenous default can produce a variety of non-zero credit spreads, including upward, humped, and downward shapes; interesting enough, the model can even produce, consistent with empirical findings, upward credit spreads for speculative grade bonds. (2) The jump risk leads to much lower optimal debt/equity ratio; in fact, with jump risk, highly risky firms tend to have very little debt. (3) The two-sided jumps lead to a variety of shapes for the implied volatility of equity options, even for long maturity options; although in general credit spreads and implied volatility tend to move in the same direction under exogenous default models, this may not be true in presence of endogenous default and jumps. Pricing formulae of credit default swaps and equity default swaps are also given. In terms of mathematical contribution, we give a proof of a version of the “smooth fitting” principle under the jump model, justifying a conjecture first suggested by Leland and Toft under the Brownian model.

Does Trade Credit Substitute for Bank Credit? Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Abstract: The paper examines micro data on Italian manufacturing firms` inventory behavior to test the Meltzer (1960) hypothesis according to which firms substitute trade credit for bank credit during periods of monetary tightening. It finds that their inventory investment is constrained by the availability of trade credit. As for the magnitude of the substitution effect, however, this study finds that it is not sizable. This is in line with the micro theories of trade credit and the evidence on actual firm practices, according to which credit terms display modest variations over time.

A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model

Abstract: We survey both academic and proprietary models to examine how macroeconomic and systematic risk effects are incorporated into measures of credit risk exposure. Many models consider the correlation between the probability of default (PD) and cyclical factors. Few models adjust loss rates (loss given default) to reflect cyclical effects. We find that the possibility of systematic correlation between PD and LGD is also neglected in currently available models.