Credit risk

About: Credit risk is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 18595 publications have been published within this topic receiving 382866 citations.

Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: A survey and new results

Abstract: The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability. This work presents two contributions. First we review the topic of bankruptcy prediction, with emphasis on neural-network (NN) models. Second, we develop an NN bankruptcy prediction model. Inspired by one of the traditional credit risk models developed by Merton (1974), we propose novel indicators for the NN system. We show that the use of these indicators in addition to traditional financial ratio indicators provides a significant improvement in the (out-of-sample) prediction accuracy (from 81.46% to 85.5% for a three-year-ahead forecast).

Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract: The relative financial strength of Islamic banks is assessed empirically based on evidence covering individual Islamic and commercial banks in 18 banking systems with a substantial presence of Islamic banking. We find that (i) small Islamic banks tend to be financially stronger than small commercial banks; (ii) large commercial banks tend to be financially stronger than large Islamic banks; and (iii) small Islamic banks tend to be financially stronger than large Islamic banks, which may reflect challenges of credit risk management in large Islamic banks. We also find that the market share of Islamic banks does not have a significant impact on the financial strength of other banks.

In-Kind Finance: A Theory of Trade Credit

Abstract: It is typically less profitable for an opportunistic borrower to divert inputs than to divert cash. Therefore, suppliers may lend more liberally than banks. This simple argument is at the core of our contract theoretic model of trade credit in competitive markets. The model implies that trade credit and bank credit can be either complements or substitutes. Among other things, the model explains why trade credit has short maturity, why trade credit is more prevalent in less developed credit markets, and why accounts payable of large unrated firms are more countercyclical than those of small firms.

System and method to performing on-line credit reviews and approvals

Abstract: A user-friendly on-line computerized system operates in real-time thus streamlining the processing of applications for products and services offered by a financial institution The system automates many steps in the credit and liability review and approval process, performs background credit worthiness evaluations based upon a applicant's credit score, financial information and new or existing relationship with the financial institution, recommends to those applicants who exceed the initial criteria for credit consideration specific credit products with predetermined credit qualified offer amounts, and ensures the required operating (credit/liability) policies are appropriately completed The system immediately analyzes an applicant's credit bureau history and automated credit scoring, and provides these results to the LBR The system also takes into account information relating to the applicant's new or existing relationship with the financial institution, if any, into the credit decision request This enables the system to provide applicants with an up-front conditional approval (based on systematic evaluation of credit bureau history, credit score, debt burden, and applicant's new or existing relationship deposits), subject to required verifications

Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing

Abstract: Some individuals borrow extensively on their credit cards. This paper tests whether present-biased time preferences correlate with credit card borrowing. In a field study, we elicit individual time preferences with incentivized choice experiments, and match resulting time preference measures to individual credit reports and annual tax returns. The results indicate that present-biased individuals are more likely to have credit card debt, and have significantly higher amounts of credit card debt, controlling for disposable income, other socio-demographics, and credit constraints.