Showing papers on "Currency published in 1998"

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises

Abstract: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks

Abstract: Even though self-fulfilling currency attacks lead to multiple equilibria when fundamentals are common knowledge, we demonstrate the uniqueness of equilibrium when speculators face a small amount of noise in their signals about the fundamentals. This unique equilibrium depends not only on the fundamentals, but also on financial variables, such as the quantity of hot money in circulation and the costs of speculative trading. In contrast to multiple equilibrium models, our model allows analysis of policy proposals directed at curtailing currency attacks.

The Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives and Firm Market Value

Abstract: This paper examines the use of foreign currency derivatives (FCDs) by a sample of 720 large U.S. nonfinancial firms between 1990 and 1995 and its potential impact on firm value. Using Tobin's Q as an approximation of a firm's market valuation, we find a positive relationship between firm value and the use of FCDs. The hedging premium is statistically and economically significant mostly after 1993 and is on average 5.7\% of firm value. This result is robust to a) controls for size, profitability, leverage, growth opportunities, ability to access financial markets, industrial and geographical diversification, credit quality, industry classification (4-digit SIC), year-dummies and firm fixed-effects; b) the use of a weight-adjusted industry Tobin's Q and other measures of value, such as the market to book and the market to sales ratios; and, c) alternative estimation techniques that handle the potential impact of outliers. Using the ratio of foreign currency derivatives to foreign sales as a proxy for the percentage of exposure that a firm hedges, we observe a significant dispersion in our measure of the hedge ratio. In univariate tests we find a nonlinear relationship between Q and our proxy. However, firm-specific factors explain this relationship in multivariate tests and it appears that firms are hedging optimally.

Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis

Abstract: This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to increase significantly during the crisis period, whereas the equity market correlations offer mixed evidence. A set of dummy variables using daily news is constructed to capture the impact of own-country and cross-border news on the markets. After controlling for own-country news and other fundamentals, the paper shows evidence of cross-border contagion in the currency and equity markets.

Tourism and economic development: A survey

Abstract: This article surveys the literature on tourism and economic development, identifying the contribution that tourism can make to development, including foreign currency, income and employment, and the costs that it entails. Single equation and system of equations models for estimating tourism demand are provided, indicating developing countries’ potential to benefit from increasing expenditure on tourism but their susceptibility to deterioration in price competitiveness. The main sectors of tourism supply ‐transportation, tour operators, travel agents and accommodation ‐are examined and the importance of cross‐country integration between firms is highlighted. The article argues that many of the problems associated with the use of environmental resources for tourism stem from market failure, and it considers methods for increasing, sustainably, the returns from them.

Mixed Signals: Central Bank Independence, Coordinated Wage Bargaining, and European Monetary Union

Abstract: Plans for the European Monetary Union (EMU) are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When signaling problems between the central bank and other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater central bank independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it can bring higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is less coordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage. They will have costs as well as benefits, and these will be unevenly distributed among and within the member nations, depending on the changes they induce in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.

What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview

Abstract: The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even if market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices, and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The first part of the paper provides an overview of economic fundamentals in Asia on the eve of the crisis, with emphasis on current account imbalances, quantity and quality of financial overlending,' banking problems, and composition, maturity and size of capital inflows.

The geography of money

Abstract: The traditional assumption holds that the territory of money coincides precisely with the political frontiers of each nation state: France has the franc, the United Kingdom has the pound, the United States has the dollar. But the disparity between that simple mental landscape and the actual organization of currency spaces has grown in recent years, as territorial boundaries of individual states limit currency circulation less and less. Many currencies are used outside their "home" country for transactions either between nations or within foreign states. In this book, Benjamin J. Cohen asks what this new geography of money reveals about financial and political power. Cohen shows how recent changes in the geography of money challenge state sovereignty. He examines the role of money and the scope of cross-border currency competition in today's world. Drawing on new work in geography and network theory to explain the new spatial organization of monetary relations, Cohen suggests that international relations, political as well as economic, are being dramatically reshaped by the increasing interpenetration of national monetary spaces. This process, he explains, generates tensions and insecurities as well as opportunities for cooperation.

Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises; Empirical Regularities

Abstract: This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature

Abstract: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we provide some perspective on this work and relate it to earlier research in the area. Then we derive the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and propose a common framework for analyzing currency crises that draws from both the early first-generation work and the more recent second-generation approach. The cross-generational framework stresses the important role of speculators and also recognizes that the government's commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. In the final section we study the crisis prediction literature and find that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities

Abstract: This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds that both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade and high interest rates in industrial countries, trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; indeed, current account imbalances are not sharply reduced in the years following a currency crisis. Economic performance around these events is also quite different. An exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversal events there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model

Abstract: We present a simple model that can account for the main features of recent financial crises in emerging markets. The international illiquidity of the domestic financial system is at the center of the problem. Illiquid banks are a necessary and a sufficient condition for financial crises to occur. Domestic financial liberalization and capital flows from abroad (especially if short-term) can aggravate the illiquidity of banks and increase their vulnerability to exogenous shocks and shifts in expectations. A bank collapse multiplies the harmful effects of an initial shock, as a credit squeeze and costly liquidation of investment projects cause real output drops and collapses in asset prices. Under fixed exchange rates, a run on banks becomes a run on the currency if the central bank attempts to act as a lender of last resort.

Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy

Abstract: Asymmetric shocks Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy How will countries handle idiosyncratic macroeconomic shocks under the single currency? Since the regional adjustment patterns currently prevailing within European currency unions are likely to prevail at the national level under the single currency, looking at the ways in which European countries react to internally asymmetric shocks today provides a good preview for the answer to that question. In this paper, we compare the USA with Germany, Italy and the UK, and with Canada, which is closer to Europe than the USA in its labour market and fiscal institutions. Europe's (and to some extent Canada's) model of regional response differs from that of the USA. Changes in regional real exchange rates are small in all countries. Outside of the USA, however, there is more reliance on interregional transfer payments, less on labour migration, and the pace of regional adjustment appears to be slower. If EMU aims at the same degree of economic and social cohesion that its constituent nations enjoy today, this suggests that its members may find it hard to resist the eventual extension of existing EU mechanisms of income redistribution - a transfer union. We propose an alternative strategy based on a relaxed Stability Pact, further strictures against central EU borrowing, labour market and fiscal reform, and the issuance by individual member states of debt indexed to nominal GDP. — Maurice Obstfeld and Giovanni Peri

Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?

Abstract: In September 1997, at its Hong Kong meeting, the Interim Committee of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adopted a statement on the liberalization of international capital movements. It asked the executive boeard of the Fund to complete work on an amendment to the IMF's Articles of Agreement that would make the liberalization of capital movements one of the purposes of the Fund and would extend the Fund's jurisdiction by requiring member governments to assume "carefully defined and consistently applied obligations" with regard to capital-account liberalization. In effect, the Interim Committee was recommending that the definition of currency convertibility in the Fund's Articles, which is currently limited to current-account transactions, be extended to capital-account transactions as well.

What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview

Abstract: The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even if market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices, and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The first part of the paper provides an overview of economic fundamentals in Asia on the eve of the crisis, with emphasis on current account imbalances, quantity and quality of financial overlending,' banking problems, and composition, maturity and size of capital inflows.

Financial Crises in Emerging Markets

Abstract: We present a simple model that can account for the main features of recent financial crises in emerging markets. The international illiquidity of the domestic financial system is at the center of the problem. Illiquid banks are a necessary and a sufficient condition for financial crises to occur. Domestic financial liberalization and capital flows from abroad (especially if short term) can aggravate the illiquidity of banks and increase their vulnerability to exogenous shocks and shifts in expectations. A bank collapse multiplies the harmful effects of an initial shock, as a credit squeeze and costly liquidation of investment projects cause real output drops and collapses in asset prices. Under fixed exchange rates, a run on banks becomes a run on the currency if the Central Bank attempts to act as a lender of last resort.

The Asian liquidity crisis

Abstract: A country's financial system is internationally illiquid if its potential short term obligations in foreign currency exceed the amount of foreign currency it can have access to in short notice. This condition may be crucial for the existence of financial crises and/or exchange rate collapses (Chang and Velasco 1998a, b). In this paper we argue that the 1997-98 crises in Asia were in fact a consequence of international illiquidity. This follows from an analysis of empirical indicators of illiquidity as well as other macroeconomic statistics. We trace the emergence of illiquidity to financial liberalization, the shortening of the foreign debt structure, and the currency denomination of assets versus liabilities. We explain how financial crises became exchange rate collapses due to a government policy of both fixing exchange rates and acting as lender of last resort. Finally, we outline the policy implications of our view for both preventing crises and dealing with them.

Financial Markets and Economic Growth

Abstract: The current economic problems in Southeast Asia can be attributed not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little. Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies do not have welldeveloped capital markets and so remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth. For all its benefits, banking is “not only basically 19th-century technology, but disaster-prone technology.” The extreme maturity (and, in some cases, currency) mismatch on banks' balance sheets plus the first-come, first-served nature of the deposit obligations mean that banks are inherently vulnerable to massive runs by depositors—and that their economies are subjected to periodic credit crunches. And, as the author says, “in the summer of 1997 a banking-driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history.” In this century, In this century, the U.S. economy has steadily reduced its dependence on banks by developing “dispersed and decentralized” financial markets. In so doing, it has increased the efficiency of the U.S. capital allocation process and reduced its susceptibility to the credit crunches that have occurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems have served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or complement bank products and services.

The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency

Abstract: The European Union will enter Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The development of euro financial markets and thickness externalities in the use of the euro as a means of payment will be the major factors determining the importance of the euro as an international currency. As euro securities markets become deeper and more liquid and transactions costs fall, euro assets will become more attractive, and the use of the euro as a vehicle currency will expand; the two effects interact, as we demonstrate. We use a three-region world model as a framework for alternative steady-state scenarios. With forex and securities market data, we access the plausibility of those scenarios and the implications for economic efficiency (welfare). We find that the euro may take on some of the current roles of the dollar, but the extent to which it does will depend on policy decisions and on the beliefs of market participants. The welfare analysis reveals potential quantitatively significant benefits for the euro area, at the cost of the US and (to a lesser degree) Japan. During the transition to the new equilibrium, the main effect of the introduction of the euro will come through portfolio shifts that are likely to favour an appreciation of the new currency vis-O-vis the dollar (and the yen). Whatever the likely long-run outcome, the dollar will remain quantitatively dominant for some time because of inertia and hysteresis u with multiple equilibria and likely threshold effects, we would not expect a quick transition to a new equilibrium. The early period could see considerable instability associated with the emergence of the euro, especially if the United States were to resist any decline in the international status of the dollar.

Method and apparatus for localizing currency valuation independent of the original and objective currencies

Abstract: The present invention is a currency translation system that provides for the dynamic translation of a first currency value into a target currency value for the purpose of aiding localization and globalization of financial transactions. The system may be used as a standalone translation system or it may be embedded in a larger application such as a financial analysis program, a spreadsheet, a compound or object-loaded document, dynamic Web pages and other dynamically-generated content, databases or stored procedures, or a Web commerce program. The system takes as input the starting currency, a target currency, and transaction rules. The system maintains a database of currency rates, currency histories, conversion rules and currency representation data. Optimization and backtracking techniques are used to deal with partial rate information and in order to find optimal valuations involving a chain of currency translations. The system can produce a single result or a matrix of results from which the user can choose an optimal valuation. The system also provides for the formatting of a numerical currency value into a presentation specific to the locale of the translation request.

Firm Strategy and Economic Exposure to Foreign Exchange Rate Movements

Abstract: This study examines the implications of differences in strategy and industry structure for firms' economic exposures to foreign exchange rate movements. In contrast with previous research using a single currency proxy, this study estimates firms' exposures using a multiple currency model. The empirical evidence from U.S. manufacturing firms indicates that 13 to 17 percent of firms are exposed to foreign exchange rate movements. Results from cross-sectional analyses reveal that foreign direct investment reduces economic exposure to foreign exchange rate movements.

Blessing or curse? Foreign and underground demand for euro notes

Abstract: Public finance solutions to the European unemployment problem? Developing countries may hold as much as 25-30% of the $1.3 trillion OECD currency supply. Although dollar holdings appear to exceed DM holdings by a factor of four, the advent of the euro may change this balance. Indeed, by issuing large-denomination notes of 100, 200 and 500, the European Central Bank appears to be well poised to challenge the dominance of the ubiquitous US $100 note. However, large-denomination notes are also extremely popular in the OECD underground economy, which appears to hold at least 50% of the currency supply. As a result, the seigniorage revenues obtained by issuing large-denomination notes may be an accounting illusion, substantially or fully offset by losses due to increased tax evasion. Hence, the new European Central Bank may wish to consider policies that discourage underground use of currency, even at the expense of losing out on foreign demand. — Kenneth Rogoff

Multiple wage-bargaining systems in the single european currency area

Abstract: Little attention in the EMU literature has been paid to the interaction between central bank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining. Analytically and empirically, coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraint to non-accommodating monetary policy. Since wage determination is dominated by collective bargaining in all the EMU member states and wage coordination within the member states has grown since 1980, this is a topic of potential importance. In particular, the replacement of the Bundesbank, directly targeting German inflation, by an ECB targeting European inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in Germany. The consequences of this for EMU are worked out under two scenarios, that inflation expectations will be generated by ECB monetary policy and that they will reflect German inflation outcomes. Possible institutional developments are discussed including government-union bargains. The Bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in Germany: again its replacement by the ECB — targeting (if at all) European rather than German fiscal policy — loosens fiscal constraints. For underlying structural reasons therefore, it is possible that Germany and other EMU countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations.

What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate

Abstract: The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even if market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices, and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The second part of the paper presents a reconstruction of the Asian meltdown -- from the antecedents in 1995-96 to the recent developments in the summer of 1998 -- in parallel with a survey of the debate on the strategies to recover from the crisis, the role of international intervention, and the costs and benefits of capital controls.

The Asian liquidity crisis

Abstract: A country's financial system is internationally illiquid if its potential short-term obligations in foreign currency exceed the amount of foreign currency it can have access to in short notice. This condition may be necessary and sufficient for financial crises and/or exchange rate collapses (Chang and Velasco 1998a, b). In this paper we argue that the 1997-98 crises in Asia were in fact a consequence of international illiquidity. This follows from an analysis of empirical indicators of illiquidity as well as other macroeconomic statistics. We trace the emergence of illiquidity to financial liberalization, the shortening of the foreign debt structure, and the currency denomination of assets versus liabilities. We explain how financial crises became exchange rate collapses due to a government policy of both fixing exchange rates and acting as lender of last resort. Finally, we outline the policy implications of our view for preventing crises and for dealing with them.

Currency and Interest-Rate Derivatives Use in US Firms

Abstract: This study examines derivatives use in samples of 451 Fortune 500/S&P 500 (FSP) firms and 461 randomly selected firms. We find that over 61% of the FSP firms and 36% of the random firms use derivatives. In both samples, swaps are the most often used interest-rate contract, and forwards and futures the most often used currency contract. The determinants of derivatives use differ across samples and definitions of derivatives use, and are largely consistent with theory. One exception is that the random firms' derivatives use and the theoretical determinants are not strongly related.

Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises; Empirical Regularities

Abstract: This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds that both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavourable terms of trade and high interest rates in industrial countries, trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; indeed, current account imbalances are not sharply reduced in the years following a currency crisis. Economic performance around these events is also quite different. An exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversal events there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.