Showing papers on "Currency published in 2013"

Systemic banking crises database

Abstract: The paper presents a comprehensive database on systemic banking crises during 1970–2011. It proposes a methodology to date banking crises based on policy indices, and examines the robustness of this approach. The paper also presents information on the costs and policy responses associated with banking crises. The database on banking crises episodes is further complemented with dates for sovereign debt and currency crises during the same period. The paper contrasts output losses across different crises and finds that sovereign debt crises tend to be more costly than banking crises, and these in turn tend to be more costly than currency crises. The data also point to significant differences in policy responses between advanced and emerging economies.

Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between low interests maintained by advanced economy central banks and credit booms in emerging economies. In a model with crossborder banking, low funding rates increase credit supply, but the initial shock is amplified through the risk-taking channel of monetary policy where greater risk-taking interacts with dampened measured risks that are driven by currency appreciation to create a feedback loop. In an empirical investigation using VAR analysis, we find that expectations of lower short-term rates dampen measured risks and stimulate cross-border banking sector capital flows.

BitCoin meets Google Trends and Wikipedia: Quantifying the relationship between phenomena of the Internet era

Abstract: Digital currencies have emerged as a new fascinating phenomenon in the financial markets. Recent events on the most popular of the digital currencies – BitCoin – have risen crucial questions about behavior of its exchange rates and they offer a field to study dynamics of the market which consists practically only of speculative traders with no fundamentalists as there is no fundamental value to the currency. In the paper, we connect two phenomena of the latest years – digital currencies, namely BitCoin, and search queries on Google Trends and Wikipedia – and study their relationship. We show that not only are the search queries and the prices connected but there also exists a pronounced asymmetry between the effect of an increased interest in the currency while being above or below its trend value.

Beware the Middleman: Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin-Exchange Risk

Abstract: Bitcoin has enjoyed wider adoption than any previous crypto- currency; yet its success has also attracted the attention of fraudsters who have taken advantage of operational insecurity and transaction irreversibility. We study the risk investors face from Bitcoin exchanges, which convert between Bitcoins and hard currency. We examine the track record of 40 Bitcoin exchanges established over the past three years, and find that 18 have since closed, with customer account balances often wiped out. Fraudsters are sometimes to blame, but not always. Using a proportional hazards model, we find that an exchange’s transaction volume indicates whether or not it is likely to close. Less popular exchanges are more likely to be shut than popular ones. We also present a logistic regression showing that popular exchanges are more likely to suffer a security breach.

An inquiry into money laundering tools in the Bitcoin ecosystem

Abstract: We provide a first systematic account of opportunities and limitations of anti-money laundering (AML) in Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptographic currency proliferating on the Internet. Our starting point is the observation that Bitcoin attracts criminal activity as many say it is an anonymous transaction system. While this claim does not stand up to scrutiny, several services offering increased transaction anonymization have emerged in the Bitcoin ecosystem - such as Bitcoin Fog, BitLaundry, and the Send Shared functionality of Blockchain.info. Some of these services routinely handle the equivalent of 6-digit dollar amounts. In a series of experiments, we use reverse-engineering methods to understand the mode of operation and try to trace anonymized transactions back to our probe accounts. While Bitcoin Fog and Blockchain.info successfully anonymize our test transactions, we can link the input and output transactions of BitLaundry. Against the backdrop of these findings, it appears unlikely that a Know-Your-Customer principle can be enforced in the Bitcoin system. Hence, we sketch alternative AML strategies accounting for imperfect knowledge of true identities but exploiting public information in the transaction graph, and discuss the implications for Bitcoin as a decentralized currency.

Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal

Abstract: A bona fide currency functions as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account, but bitcoin largely fails to satisfy these criteria. Bitcoin has achieved only scant consumer transaction volume, with an average well below one daily transaction for the few merchants who accept it. Its volatility is greatly higher than the volatilities of widely used currencies, imposing large short-term risk upon users. Bitcoin’s daily exchange rates exhibit virtually zero correlation with widely used currencies and with gold, making bitcoin useless for risk management and exceedingly difficult for its owners to hedge. Bitcoin prices of consumer goods require many decimal places with leading zeros, which is disconcerting to retail market participants. Bitcoin faces daily hacking and theft risks, lacks access to a banking system with deposit insurance, and is not used to denominate consumer credit or loan contracts. Bitcoin appears to behave more like a speculative investment than a currency.

Crash-Neutral Currency Carry Trades

Abstract: Currency carry trades exploiting violations of uncovered interest rate parity in G10 currencies deliver significant excess returns with annualized Sharpe equal to or greater than those of equity market factors (1990-2012). Using data on out-of-the-money foreign exchange options, I compute returns to crash-hedged portfolios and demonstrate that the high returns to carry trades are not due to peso problems. A comparison of the returns to hedged and unhedged trades indicates crash risk premia account for at most one-third of the excess return to currency carry trades.

A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets

Abstract: We show that bond risk premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a long-run risks model with timevarying volatilities of expected growth and inflation The model simultaneously accounts for bond return predictability and violations of uncovered interest parity in currency markets We find that preference for early resolution of uncertainty, time-varying volatilities, and non-neutral effects of inflation on growth are important to account for these aspects of asset markets The Author 2012 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies All rights reserved For Permissions, please e-mail: journalspermissions@oupcom, Oxford University Press

Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006:

Abstract: The article estimates the size of shadow economy for 111 countries for the years 1984–2006 based on the currency demand approach. An important innovation is our use of dynamic panel data methods, which allows us to make several important contributions. First, we estimate the shadow economy for a range of heterogeneous countries that previously could not be included in the same regression. Second, we include variables that measure institutional quality in countries, including a variable that measures enforcement efforts. Third, we account for the persistence of currency demand as it evolves over time. Our results indicate a substantial shadow economy across countries, ranging from 10 to 86 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), with some tendency to grow over time. We also find that the shadow economy varies significantly by country income group. The mean shadow economy is 17 percent of GDP for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, 24 percent for non-OECD high-income co...

The Changing Role of Central Banks

Abstract: 1. Queen Elisabeth II and the Economists 2. Money 3. Monetary Policy 4. Currency Exchange in a Globalized World 5. Preserving the Value of Money 6. Central Banks Are Reserve Institutions

Securing the World Economy: The Reinvention of the League of Nations, 1920-1946

Abstract: Introduction 1. The Multiverse of the League, 1920-1929 2. From Boom to Bust, 1929-1933 3. Conferences and their (Dis)contents, 1933-34 4. All Things Trade and Currency, All Nations Great and Small, 1933-36 5. Society and Economy in Global Partnership, 1935-38 6. Scrutiny and Strategy: Contesting Economic Depressions, 1937-39 7. The League at War and in Pieces, 1939-40 8. Made in the USA, 1941-43 9. The Architecture of a New World Order, 1944-45 Conclusion Sources and Bibliography

Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal

Abstract: A bona fide currency functions as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account, but bitcoin largely fails to satisfy these criteria. Bitcoin has achieved only scant consumer transaction volume, with an average well below one daily transaction for the few merchants who accept it. Its volatility is greatly higher than the volatilities of widely used currencies, imposing large short-term risk upon users. Bitcoin's daily exchange rates exhibit virtually zero correlation with widely used currencies and with gold, making bitcoin useless for risk management and exceedingly difficult for its owners to hedge. Bitcoin prices of consumer goods require many decimal places with leading zeros, which is disconcerting to retail market participants. Bitcoin faces daily hacking and theft risks, lacks access to a banking system with deposit insurance, and it is not used to denominate consumer credit or loan contracts. Bitcoin appears to behave more like a speculative investment than a currency.

Financial liberalisation, stock markets and economic development

Abstract: The paper concentrates on the role of the stock markets in the liberalisation process in DCs in the 1980s and 1990s, and explores, among other things, their effects on the financing of corporate growth. The observed financing patterns will be seen to contradict the predictions of most economic models, and are therefore surprising not just for the M.S, but also for other economists. At the macro-economic level, the paper considers foreign portfolio f1ows, the interactions between the stock and the currency markets, and their implications for the stability of the real economy and its long-term growth.

The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?

Abstract: A country’s rise to economic dominance tends to be accompanied by its currency becoming a reference point, with other currencies tracking it implicitly or explicitly. For a sample comprising emerging-market economies, we show that in the last three years, the renminbi (RMB) has increasingly become a reference currency, which we define as one that exhibits a high degree of co-movement with other currencies. In East Asia, there is already a RMB bloc, because the RMB has become the dominant reference currency, eclipsing the US dollar, which is a historic development. In this region, 7 currencies out of 10 co-move more closely with the RMB than with the dollar, with the average value of the co-movement coefficient relative to the RMB being about 60 percent greater than that for the dollar. We find that co-movements with a reference currency, especially for the RMB, are associated with trade integration. We draw some lessons for the prospects for the RMB bloc to move beyond Asia based on a comparison of the RMB’s situation today and that of the Japanese yen in the early 1990s. If trade were the sole driver, a more global RMB bloc could emerge by the mid-2030s, but complementary reforms of the financial and external sectors could considerably expedite the process.

Regulating Digital Currencies: Bringing Bitcoin within the Reach of the IMF

Abstract: This paper examines the potentially destabilizing effects of emerging digital currencies on the international foreign currency exchange. Specifically, it examines “Bitcoin,” a decentralized, partially anonymous, and largely unregulated digital currency that has become particularly popular in the last few years. The paper argues that the International Monetary Fund, the institution responsible for coordinating the stability of foreign exchange rates, is ill-equipped to handle the widespread use of Bitcoins into the foreign exchange market. It highlights the inability of the Fund to intervene in the event of a speculative attack on a currency by Bitcoin users. The paper concludes by suggesting two interpretations of the Fund’s incorporating document, the Articles of Agreement, which would allow it to intervene in the event of such an attack.

Bitcoin: A Primer

Abstract: Bitcoin is a digital currency that was launched in 2009, and it has attracted much attention recently. This article reviews the mechanics of the currency and offers some thoughts on its characteristics.

Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract: Foreign currency loans represent an important feature of recent financial developments in CEECs. This might pose a serious challenge for macroeconomic stability. Against this background, we study the determinants of foreign currency loans of households, using data on the behavior of households in nine CEECs. Our results reveal that foreign currency loans are driven by households’ lack of trust in the stability of the local currency and in domestic financial institutions. Moreover, special factors including remittances and expectations of euro adoption play an important role in selected regions. The financial crisis reduced foreign currency borrowing, but there is some indication this effect might be only temporary.

The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review

Abstract: This paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between currencies and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade flows. The extent of this effect depends on a number of factors, including the existence of hedging instruments, the structure of production (e.g. the prevalence of small firms), and the degree of economic integration across countries. The second issue involves exchange rate misalignments, which are predicted to have short- run effects in models with price rigidities. However, the exact impact depends on a number of features, such as the pricing strategy of firms engaging in international trade and the importance of global production networks. This effect is predicted to disappear in the long- run, unless some other distortion characterizes the economy. Empirical results confirm that short-run effects can exist, but their size and persistence over time are not consistent across different studies. JEL-Code: F100, F310, F550.

The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets

Abstract: This paper examines the relative importance of the global and regional markets for financial markets in developing countries, particularly during the US financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. We examine the way in which the degree of regional (seven African markets combined), global (China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US), commodity (gold and petroleum), and nominal effective exchange rate (Euro and US dollar) spillovers to individual African countries evolve during the two crises through the econometric method introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). We find that African markets are most severely affected by spillovers from global markets and modestly from commodity and currency markets. Conversely, the regional spillovers within Africa are smaller than the global ones and are insulated from the global crises. We also find that the aggregated spillover effects of European countries to the African markets exceeded that of the US even at the wake of the US financial crisis.

Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns

Abstract: Differences in real interest rates across developed economies are puzzlingly large and persistent. I propose a simple explanation: bonds issued in the currencies of larger economies are expensive because they insure against shocks that affect a larger fraction of the world economy. I show that, indeed, differences in the size of economies explain a large fraction of the cross-sectional variation in currency returns. The data also support additional implications of the model: the introduction of a currency union lowers interest rates in participating countries, and stocks in the nontraded sector of larger economies pay lower expected returns.

The Shadow Economy

Abstract: Illicit work, social security fraud, economic crime and other shadow economy activities are fast becoming an international problem. This second edition uses new data to reassess currency demand and the model approach to estimate the size of the shadow economy in 151 developing, transition, and OECD countries. This updated edition argues that during the 2000s the average size of the shadow economy varied from 19 per cent of GDP for OECD countries, to 30 per cent for transition countries, to 45 per cent for developing countries. It examines the causes and consequences of this development using an integrated approach to explain deviant behaviour that combines findings from economic, sociological, and psychological research. The authors suggest that increasing taxation and social security contributions, rising state regulatory activities, and the decline of the tax morale are all driving forces behind this growth, and they propose a reform of state public institutions in order to improve the dynamics of the official economy.

Money Isn’t Everything, but It Helps If It Doesn’t Look Used: How the Physical Appearance of Money Influences Spending

Abstract: Despite evidence that currency denomination can influence spending, researchers have yet to examine whether the physical appearance of money can do the same. This is important because smaller denomination bills tend to suffer greater wear than larger denomination bills. Using real money in the context of real purchases, this article demonstrates that the physical appearance of money can override the influence of denomination. The reason being, people want to rid themselves of worn bills because they are disgusted by the contamination from others, whereas people put a premium on crisp currency because they take pride in owning bills that can be spent around others. This suggests that the physical appearance of money matters more than traditionally thought, and like most things in life, it too is inextricably linked to the social context. The results suggest that money may be less fungible than people think.