Showing papers on "Currency published in 2017"

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?

Abstract: Detailed country-by-country chronologies are an informative companion piece to our paper “Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” which provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. The individual country chronologies are also a central component of our approach to classifying regimes. These country histories date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between pre-announced pegs, crawling pegs, and bands from their de facto counterparts. We think it is important to distinguish between say, de facto pegs or bands from announced pegs or bands, because their properties are potentially different. The chronologies also flag the dates for important turning points, such as when the exchange rate first floated, or when the anchor currency was changed. We extend our chronologies as far back as possible, even though we only classify regimes from 1946 onwards.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Current Trends in Sustainability of Bitcoins and Related Blockchain Technology

Abstract: Bitcoin is a digital currency based on a peer-to-peer payment system managed by an open source software and characterized by lower transaction costs, greater security and scalability than fiat money and no need of a central bank. Despite criticisms about illegal uses and social consequences, it is attracting the interest of the scientific community. The purpose of this work is to define and evaluate the current trends of the literature concerned with the sustainability of bitcoin, considering the environmental impacts, social issues and economic aspects. From the analysis it emerges that the transition of the whole monetary system in the new cryptocurrency will result in an unacceptable amount of energy consumed to mine new bitcoins and to maintain the entire virtual monetary system, and probably bitcoin will remain a niche currency. Blockchain, which is the base for a distributed and democratically-sustained public ledger of the transactions, could foster new and challenging opportunities. Sharing the framework of medical data, energy generation and distribution in micro-grids at the citizen level, block-stack and new state-driven cryptocurrencies, may benefit from the wide spread of blockchain-based transactions. Under the perspective of its being a driver of social change, bitcoins and related blockchain technologies may overcome the issues highlighted by numerous detractors.

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?

Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. We find that the often-cited post-Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Our central finding is that the US dollar scores (by a wide margin) as the world’s dominant anchor currency and, by some metrics, its use is far wider today than 70 years ago. In contrast, the global role of the euro appears to have stalled in recent years. While the incidence of capital account restrictions has been trending lower for decades, an important wave toward capital market integration dates as recently as the mid-1990s. We suggest that record accumulation of reserves post 2002 has much to do with many countries’ desire to stabilize exchange rates in an environment of markedly greater capital mobility. Indeed, the continuing desire to manage exchange rates despite increased capital mobility post-2003 may be a key factor underpinning the modern-day Triffin dilemma that some have recently pointed to.

Federal Reserve Policy in an International Context

Abstract: In the postcrisis period, some foreign policymakers accused the Federal Reserve of engaging in “currency wars” and inadvertently creating “financial spillovers,” arguing that these were especially consequential given the dominant role of the U.S. dollar in international trade and finance. This lecture analyzes these critiques, and argues: (1) little support exists, either theoretical or empirical, for the currency wars claim; (2) the United States and its trading partners should use nonmonetary tools for dealing with spillovers; and (3) the benefits of the dollar standard to the United States and the world are considerably more symmetric than in the Bretton Woods era.

Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model

Abstract: Bitcoin, the most innovate digital currency as of now, created since 2008, even through experienced its ups and downs, still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society. It relies on peer-to-peer network, achieved decentralization, anonymous and transparent. As the most representative digital currency, people curious to study how Bitcoin’ price changes in the past. In this paper, we use monthly data from 2011 to 2016 to build a VEC model to exam how economic factors such as Custom price index, US dollar index, Dow jones industry average, Federal Funds Rate and gold price influence Bitcoin price. From empirical analysis we find that all these variables do have a long-term influence. US dollar index is the biggest influence on Bitcoin price while gold price influence the least. From our result, we conclude that for now Bitcoin can be treated as a speculative asset, however, it is far from being a proper credit currency.

Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound

Abstract: Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to finesse the zero bound without affecting how most ordinary people live. Surprisingly, this question gets little attention compared to the massive number of articles that take the zero bound as given and look for out-of-the-box solutions for dealing with it. In an inversion of the old joke, it is a bit as if the economics literature has insisted on positing "assume we don't have a can opener," without considering the possibility that we might be able to devise one. It makes sense not to wait until the next financial crisis to develop plans. Fundamentally, there is no practical obstacle to paying negative (or positive) interest rates on electronic currency and, as we shall see, effective negative rate policy does not require eliminating paper currency.

Keynes at the periphery: Currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies

Abstract: While the post Keynesian literature offers a rather clear concept for growth-oriented policies, it is necessary to adapt them for peripheral emerging economies. We base our analysis of an appropriate Keynesian policy mix for these countries on the concept of currency hierarchy, where the currencies of peripheral emerging economies have a lower liquidity premium than the currencies of advanced economies. The international asymmetry related to the currency hierarchy, amplified by financial globalization, imposes major constraints to the adoption of Keynesian policies for these economies. Under these conditions, we argue that domestic economic policy coordination should lay a major focus on a low policy rate and, especially, a competitive exchange rate for obtaining, at least, a balanced current account, in order to prevent capital flows boom-bust-cycles with subsequent financial crises. We conclude that it is a rather ambitious and long-term goal to climb up the currency hierarchy, especially under ...

Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: a Tale of Two Countries

Abstract: Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability “Commodity currencies” offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods In the model domestic production insulates commodity-producing countries from global productivity shocks, forcing final-good producers to absorb them Commodity-currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions These predictions are strongly supported in the data This article is protected by copyright All rights reserved

The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity: Understanding the Euro Experiment

Abstract: Creating the European monetary union between diverse and unequal nation states is arguably one of the biggest social experiments in history. This book offers an explanation of how the euro experiment came about and was sustained despite a severe crisis, and provides a comparison with the monetary-financial history of the US. The euro experiment can be understood as risk-sharing through a currency that is issued by a supranational central bank. A single currency shares liquidity risks by creating larger markets for all financial assets. A single monetary policy responds to business cycles in the currency area as a whole rather than managing the path of one dominant economy. Mechanisms of risk-sharing become institutions of monetary solidarity if they are consciously maintained, but they will periodically face opposition in member states. This book argues that diversity of membership is not an economic obstacle to the success of the euro, as diversity increases the potential gains from risk sharing. But political cooperation is needed to realize this potential, and such cooperation is up against collective action problems which become more intractable as the parties become more diverse. Hence, risk-sharing usually comes about as a collective by-product of national incentives. This political-economic tension can explain why the gains from risk-sharing are not more fully exploited, both in the euro area and in the US dollar area. This approach to monetary integration is based on the theory of collective action when hierarchy is not available as a solution to inter-state cooperation. The theory originates with Keohane and Ostrom (1995) and it is applied in this book, taking into account the latest research on the inherent instability of financial market integration.

RMBI or RMBR: Is the Renminbi Destined to Become a Global or Regional Currency?

Abstract: Previous studies have focused on when the renminbi will play a significant role as an international currency, but less attention has been paid to where. We fill this gap by contrasting two ...

The Market Efficiency of Bitcoin: A Weekly Anomaly Perspective

Abstract: Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It is not a legal currency but a private monetary system that manages itself and does not depend on central banks or governments. Since the development of Bitcoin, its trading volume has been increasing largely and rapidly. Some fear the increase in Bitcoin usage as it is quite different from traditional currencies; however, its use is spreading all over the world. This paper examines empirically whether or not weekly price anomalies exist by checking the market efficiency of Bitcoin. The empirical results show that the Bitcoin market is not efficient. However, the empirical results show that Bitcoin transactions are becoming and can become more efficient. The results suggest that Bitcoin returns will be random in the future.JEL classification numbers: E42, E44, E51Keywords: Anomaly, Bitcoin, efficient market

The impact of DDoS and other security shocks on Bitcoin currency exchanges: evidence from Mt. Gox

Abstract: We investigate how distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks and other disruptions affect the Bitcoin ecosystem. In particular, we investigate the impact of shocks on trading activity at the leading Mt. Gox exchange between April 2011 and November 2013. We find that following DDoS attacks on Mt. Gox, the number of large trades on the exchange fell sharply. In particular, the distribution of the daily trading volume becomes less skewed (fewer big trades) and had smaller kurtosis on days following DDoS attacks. The results are robust to alternative specifications, as well as to restricting the data to activity prior to March 2013, i.e., the period before the first large appreciation in the price of and attention paid to Bitcoin.

Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System

Abstract: This book provides an analysis of the global monetary system and the necessary reforms that it should undergo to play an active role in the twenty-first century. As its title indicates, its basic diagnosis is that it is an ad hoc framework rather than a coherent system—a ‘non-system’—which evolved after the breakdown of the original Bretton Woods arrangement in the early 1970s. The book places a special focus on the asymmetries that emerging and developing countries face within the current system, and therefore on the development dimensions of the global monetary system and of global monetary reform. The book proposes a comprehensive yet evolutionary reform of the system that includes: (i) provision of international liquidity through a system that mixes the multi-currency arrangement with a more active use of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), the only true global currency that has been created; (ii) stronger mechanisms of macroeconomic policy cooperation, including greater cooperation in exchange rate management, and freedom to manage capital flows as a complement to counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy and other instruments of financial regulation; (iii) additional automatic balance-of-payments financing facilities, and the complementary use of swap and regional arrangements; (iv) a multilateral sovereign debt workout mechanism; and (v) major reforms of the system’s governance, based on a more representative apex organization, more equitable participation of emerging and developing countries in decision-making, and a network of global, regional, inter-regional, and sub-regional organizations.

How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future

Abstract: A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the modern history of the global economic system seems to support the long-held view that the leading world power’s currency—the British pound, the U.S. dollar, and perhaps someday the Chinese yuan—invariably dominates international trade and finance. In How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists provide a reassessment of this history and the theories behind the conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries, and marshaling extensive new data to test established theories of how global currencies work, Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chit¸u argue for a new view, in which several national monies can share international currency status, and their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and in the structure of international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. They show that multiple international and reserve currencies have in fact coexisted in the pastupending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance prior to 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s dominance more recently. Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, from whether the euro and the Chinese yuan might address their respective challenges and perhaps rival the dollar, to how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.

When Bitcoin encounters information in an online forum: Using text mining to analyse user opinions and predict value fluctuation.

Abstract: Bitcoin is an online currency that is used worldwide to make online payments. It has consequently become an investment vehicle in itself and is traded in a way similar to other open currencies. The ability to predict the price fluctuation of Bitcoin would therefore facilitate future investment and payment decisions. In order to predict the price fluctuation of Bitcoin, we analyse the comments posted in the Bitcoin online forum. Unlike most research on Bitcoin-related online forums, which is limited to simple sentiment analysis and does not pay sufficient attention to note-worthy user comments, our approach involved extracting keywords from Bitcoin-related user comments posted on the online forum with the aim of analytically predicting the price and extent of transaction fluctuation of the currency. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated based on Bitcoin online forum data ranging over a period of 2.8 years from December 2013 to September 2016.

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?

Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. We find that the often-cited post-Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Our central finding is that the US dollar scores (by a wide margin) as the world's dominant anchor currency and, by some metrics, its use is far wider today than 70 years ago. In contrast, the global role of the euro appears to have stalled in recent years. While the incidence of capital account restrictions has been trending lower for decades, an important wave toward capital market integration dates as recently as the mid-1990s. We suggest that record accumulation of reserves post 2002 has much to do with many countries' desire to stabilize exchange rates in an environment of markedly greater capital mobility. Indeed, the continuing desire to manage exchange rates despite increased capital mobility post-2003 may be a key factor underpinning the modern-day Triffin dilemma that some have recently pointed to.

Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage

Abstract: This paper studies the violation of the most basic no-arbitrage condition in international finance - Covered Interest Parity (CIP). To understand the CIP conundrum, it is key to (i) account for funding frictions in U.S. dollar money markets, and (ii) to study the challenges of swap intermediaries when funding liquidity evolves differently across major currency areas. We find that CIP holds remarkably well for most potential arbitrageurs when applying their marginal funding rates. With severe funding liquidity differences, however, it becomes impossible for dealers to quote prices such that CIP holds across the full rate spectrum. A narrow set of global top-tier banks enjoys risk-less arbitrage opportunities as dealers set quotes to avert order flow imbalances. We show how a situation with persistent arbitrage profits arises as an equilibrium outcome due to the constellation of market segmentation, the abundance of excess reserves and their remuneration in central banks' deposit facilities.

Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multi-Country Economy

Abstract: Focusing on the ten countries with the most-traded currencies, we provide novel empirical evidence about the existence of significant heterogenous exposure to global growth news shocks. We incorporate this empirical fact in a frictionless risk-sharing model with recursive preferences, multiple countries, and multiple consumption goods whose supply is subject to both global and local short- and long-run shocks. Since news shocks are priced, heterogenous exposure to global long-run growth shocks results in both a relevant reallocation of international resources and currency adjustments. Our unified framework replicates the properties of the HML-FX and HML-NFA carry trade strategies studied by Lustig et al. (2011) and Della Corte et al. (2013).

Gross capital flows by banks, corporates, and sovereigns

Abstract: We construct a new data set for gross capital inflows during 1996-2014 for 85 countries at a quarterly frequency. We decompose debt inflows by borrower type: banks, corporates and sovereigns. Using our new data, we present dynamic and cross sectional patterns in capital inflows as a function of global push factors and countries' own business cycles. This exercise reveals that patterns evident in aggregate capital flows data do not hold up consistently across different borrower types. When global risk appetite is low, as proxied by high VIX, capital flows into banks and corporates decline both in advanced economies (AE) and in emerging markets (EM). This is also true for EM sovereigns but not for AE, whose sovereign borrowing does not respond to VIX. Banks' and corporates' borrowing, both in EM and in AE are procyclical, whereas EM's sovereigns exhibit counter-cyclical borrowing. Capital inflows are procyclical in all assets classes except for portfolio debt inflows to EM, which exhibit a countercyclical pattern driven mainly by EM sovereigns and to some extent by EM corporates. Our results highlight the importance of separating capital flows by borrower type for understanding potential systemic risks related to capital flows, and show the difficulty of establishing robust stylized facts about capital flows' dynamics in a mixed sample of emerging and advanced countries.

ValueShuffle: Mixing Confidential Transactions for Comprehensive Transaction Privacy in Bitcoin

Abstract: The public nature of the blockchain has been shown to be a severe threat for the privacy of Bitcoin users. Even worse, since funds can be tracked and tainted, no two coins are equal, and fungibility, a fundamental property required in every currency, is at risk. With these threats in mind, several privacy-enhancing technologies have been proposed to improve transaction privacy in Bitcoin. However, they either require a deep redesign of the currency, breaking many currently deployed features, or they address only specific privacy issues and consequently provide only very limited guarantees when deployed separately.

Blockchain-based payment collection supervision system using pervasive Bitcoin digital wallet

Abstract: After years of tremendous development and research in digital currency, the most famous Bitcoin industry chain has been gradually completed including mining, exchange, currency exchange, ATM, pervasive digital wallet design and so on. Especially, its blockchain technology has become FinTech organizations' emerging business and research directions, also been applied in the interdisciplinary medical science, supply chain and Internet of things. Digitizing currency can solve many problems in physical currency, such as the rampant counterfeit banknotes. Thus, not only the transparency can be cost-effectively preserved in store's ledger, but also customer's rights and interests can be protected while using the digital wallet. For the government, the regulation and auditing of financial transaction can be made simpler and more convenient for tax collection issue. Digitized transaction details can be much easier to audit by any computing device than manually audit the conventional ledger books. Furthermore, to make merchandise store to use digitized currency much easier, in this paper, we propose and deploy a Bitcoin collection supervision system called BPCSS based on blockchain technology with cloud databases for customers and merchandise stores. The preliminary experimental results via the well-known pervasive digital wallet of Testnet Bitcoin demonstrate the proposed BPCSS can cost-effectively collect payment and supervise the transactions between customer and merchandise store running the implemented NFC-enabled Android Apps.

Can Bitcoin Become a Viable Alternative to Fiat Currencies? An Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin’s Volatility Based on a GARCH Model

Abstract: This study examines whether Bitcoin, a digital decentralized currency, can become a viable alternative to fiat currencies. Bitcoin currently does not fulfill the criteria of being a currency because it does not function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Bitcoin’s biggest obstacle from fulfilling these functions is the price volatility. A GARCH (1,1) model is used to analyze Bitcoin’s volatility in respect to the macroeconomic variables of countries where Bitcoin is being traded the most. Bitcoin already behaves similarly to fiat currencies in China, the U.S. and the European Union but not in Japan. There is also evidence that Bitcoin acts as a safe-haven asset in China. The volatility of Bitcoin has been steadily decreasing throughout its lifetime. If it follows the trend of its six years of existence, it will reach the volatility levels of fiat currencies in 2019-2020 and become a functioning alternative to fiat currencies.

Cryptocurrency Framework Diagnostics from Islamic Finance Perspective: A New Insight of Bitcoin System Transaction

Abstract: This paper analyses the operation of cryptocurrency system in perspective of Islamic finance. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cryptocurrency framework whether it is meet the Islamic Finance rule. In addition, this study performed in providing the Islamic minded investor a proper information regarding investment in Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency is a digital currency in which encryption techniques that implement to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of a central bank. A transaction is a transfer of Bitcoin value that is broadcast to the network and collected into blocks. A transaction typically references previous transaction outputs as new transaction inputs and dedicates all input Bitcoin values to new outputs. This cryptocurrency has no physical form and exists only in the network. Bitcoin also has no intrinsic value in that it is not redeemable for another commodity, namely gold. Then, this study evaluates the framework according to Islamic Finance rule. The bitcoin account holder is anonymous. Therefore, it is difficult to track the real account holder if any suspicious activity occurs. In addition, the value of Bitcoin is unstable because of high volatility. Bitcoin also suffers variance in perceptions of Bitcoin’s store of value and method of value. All of these three conditions contribute to uncertainty in transaction framework of Bitcoin. As a conclusion, Bitcoin transaction is classified as a transaction with high uncertainty (gharar).