Showing papers on "Damages published in 2020"

Resilience metrics and measurement methods for transportation infrastructure: the state of the art

Abstract: Transportation infrastructure plays an important role in supporting the national economy and social well-being. Extreme events have caused terrible physical damages to the transportation infrastruc...

COVID-19 as a catalyst for educational change.

Abstract: The massive damages of COVID-19 may be incalculable. But in the spirit of never wasting a good crisis, COVID-19 represents an opportunity to rethink education. The rethinking should not be about improving schooling, but should focus on the what, how, and where of learning. This article highlights some of the questions that schools can ask as they reimagine post-COVID education.

Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test.

Abstract: The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an inter-temporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century’s climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly. Relative economic benefits of achieving temperature targets have not properly accounted for damages at higher temperatures. Here the authors integrate dynamic cost-benefit analysis with a damage-cost curve and show that the Paris Climate Agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the future.

The Role of Technological Innovation in a Dynamic Model of the Environmental Supply Chain Curve: Evidence from a Panel of 102 Countries

Abstract: Advancing smart production systems for green production remains a crucial priority for manufacturers, while the vision to achieve green supply chain management process (GSCMP) remains obstructed due to using less fuel-efficient technologies. This study suggested an intelligent logistics design that infused technological indicators with logistics performance indices (LPIs) to minimize carbon damages in a panel of 102 countries. The study used patent applications and trademark applications to analyze the technological progress, whereas LPIs—i.e., LPI-1 for assessing quality and competence services, and LPI-2 for trade and transport infrastructure—are used to determine supply chain management process across countries. The results show that carbon damages follow a U-shaped structure with technology-induced LPIs (TI-LPIs) and GDP per capita. The country’s GDP per capita and TI-LPIs decrease carbon damages up to US$15,000,000, while the moderation of patents application (and trademark applications) with LPI1 and LPI2 substantially decreases carbon damages up to US$13,800,000 (US$34,100,000) and US$6,100,000 (US$20,200,000), respectively. The causality estimates confirmed the growth-led carbon damages, technology-led carbon damages, growth-led logistics indices, and technology-led growth across countries. The results emphasized the need to move forward by adopting fuel-efficient technologies to minimize carbon damages across countries.

The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change

Abstract: Hurricane Harvey is one of the costliest tropical cyclones in history. In this paper, we use a probabilistic event attribution framework to estimate the costs associated with Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influence on the climate system. Results indicate that the “fraction of attributable risk” for the rainfall from Harvey was likely about at least a third with a preferable/best estimate of three quarters. With an average estimate of damages from Harvey assessed at about US$90bn, applying this fraction gives a best estimate of US$67bn, with a likely lower bound of at least US$30bn, of these damages that are attributable to the human influence on climate. This “bottom-up” event-based estimate of climate change damages contrasts sharply with the more “top-down” approach using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or global macroeconometric estimates: one IAM estimates annual climate change damages in the USA to be in the region of US$21.3bn. While the two approaches are not easily comparable, it is noteworthy that our “bottom-up” results estimate that one single extreme weather event contributes more to climate change damages in the USA than an entire year by the “top-down” method. Given that the “top-down” approach, at best, parameterizes but does not resolve the effects of extreme weather events, our findings suggest that the “bottom-up” approach is a useful avenue to pursue in future attempts to refine estimates of climate change damages.

Social inequalities and collateral damages of the COVID-19 pandemic: when basic needs challenge mental health care.

Abstract: Never before has there been such a high level of mobilization around mental health during an epidemic (Pappa et al. 2020). International agencies, with the UN General Secretary at the forefront, the Director of the World Health Organization, as well as researchers, policy makers and civil society leaders have all drawn attention to the need for mental health care for people affected by COVID-19. In the so-called developed countries, many training courses and guidelines have been developed to help mental health professionals to offer telepsychotherapy in order to comply with the physical distancing measures taken to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In many lowand middle-income countries (LMICs), a mental health commission has been implemented within the response committees to fight the pandemic. These measures have been part of unprecedented efforts to raise awareness on mental health issues. However, despite these efforts, many concerns rapidly arose about mental health care during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these measures solely target mental health symptoms (emotional and behavioral), rather than the overall well-being of individuals, families and communities. Typically formulated in high-income countries (HIC), these programs often assume that basic needs are met, and operate under the assumption that survival is not threatened. However, programs that address social inequalities and the non-fulfillment of basic needs are urgently needed, both in HIC and in LMICs. Indeed, beyond the fear of the virus or the isolation of confinement, an increasing number of people go to bed hungry and worried about what their family will eat the next day. Others are preoccupied by their unpaid rent and the risk of being thrown out of their apartments. In the USA, while more than 30 million people applied for unemployment benefits in April, two large surveys have shown that around 20% of children do not have access to enough food (Bauer 2020). In India, more than 120 million lost their jobs or economic activities, among them, some of the most vulnerable. Queues spanning more than five miles in the USA, where recently unemployed individuals are seeking food assistance, or images of the millions in India trying to reach their hometown by bus and on foot revealed the extent of social inequalities in the face of COVID-19. In some countries, confinement measures were deemed impossible to follow, because the risk of being infected was nothing compared to starving to death. The WHO’s definition of mental health and well-being of individuals includes the fulfillment of basic human needs and rights and recommends interventions that are based on an ecosystemic approach targeting a wide range of social and psychological determinants, including social inequalities, poverty and precariousness. In the current social crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, those most in need of mental health care are those whose livelihoods have been made even more precarious because of social disparities. Yet, few of them will seek help because their basic needs are not met and our mental healthcare systems not only fail to address these inequalities but tend to individualize psychological distress (Murali and Oyebode 2004). Proposing online support and tool kits to address anxiety and depression symptoms may be very helpful when culturally appropriate. However, if survival is at stake and if this is not acknowledged as the most & Jude Mary Cénat jcenat@uottawa.ca

A benefit–cost analysis of floodplain land acquisition for US flood damage reduction

Abstract: Flooding is the costliest form of natural disaster and impacts are expected to increase, in part, due to exposure of new development to flooding. However, these costs could be reduced through the acquisition and conservation of natural land in floodplains. Here we quantify the benefits and costs of reducing future flood damages in the United States by avoiding development in floodplains. We find that by 2070, cumulative avoided future flood damages exceed the costs of land acquisition for more than one-third of the unprotected natural lands in the 100-yr floodplain (areas with a 1% chance of flooding annually). Large areas have an even higher benefit–cost ratio: for 54,433 km2 of floodplain, avoided damages exceed land acquisition costs by a factor of at least five to one. Strategic conservation of floodplains would avoid unnecessarily increasing the economic and human costs of flooding while simultaneously providing multiple ecosystem services. Flooding is the costliest natural disaster. Focusing on the United States, this analysis finds that by 2070 avoided damages exceed land acquisition costs for more than one-third of unprotected natural lands in the 100-year floodplain.

Decompositions and Policy Consequences of an Extraordinary Decline in Air Pollution from Electricity Generation

Abstract: We determine the change in air pollution damages from U.S. power plant emissions over 2010 to 2017. Annual damages fell from $245 billion to $133 billion over this period, with most of the decline occurring in the East. Decomposition shows that changes in emissions rates reduced damages by $63 billion, changes in generation shares reduced damages by $60 billion, and a reduction in fossil generation reduced damages by $25 billion. However, changes in damage valuations per ton of emissions increased damages by $35 billion. We estimate that marginal damages declined in the East from about 9¢ per kWh in 2010 to 6¢ in 2017. This decrease is slower than the decrease in total damages. Despite little or no change in total damages in the West and Texas, marginal damages increased. The environmental benefit of electric vehicles increased so that they are now cleaner than gasoline vehicles on average, though substantial heterogeneity remains. The environmental benefit of solar panels decreased in the East but increased elsewhere.

Transfer Learning-based Road Damage Detection for Multiple Countries.

Abstract: Many municipalities and road authorities seek to implement automated evaluation of road damage. However, they often lack technology, know-how, and funds to afford state-of-the-art equipment for data collection and analysis of road damages. Although some countries, like Japan, have developed less expensive and readily available Smartphone-based methods for automatic road condition monitoring, other countries still struggle to find efficient solutions. This work makes the following contributions in this context. Firstly, it assesses the usability of the Japanese model for other countries. Secondly, it proposes a large-scale heterogeneous road damage dataset comprising 26620 images collected from multiple countries using smartphones. Thirdly, we propose generalized models capable of detecting and classifying road damages in more than one country. Lastly, we provide recommendations for readers, local agencies, and municipalities of other countries when one other country publishes its data and model for automatic road damage detection and classification. Our dataset is available at (this https URL).

Causation in Competition Law Damages Actions

Abstract: Competition law damages actions are often characterized by the uncertainty of the causal connection between the infringement and the harm. The damage consists in a pure economic loss flowing from an anticompetitive conduct. In such cases, the complexity of the markets structures, combined with the interdependence of individuals' assets, fuel this causal uncertainty. In this work, Claudio Lombardi elucidates the concept of causation in competition law damages actions and outlines its practical implications in competition litigation through the comparative analysis of the relevant statutory and case law, primarily in the European Union. This book should be read by practitioners, scholars, and graduate students with experience in competition law, as well as those interested in analyzing economic torts and causation in general.

Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries

Abstract: Climate change affects inequalities between countries in two ways. On the one hand, rising temperatures from greenhouse gas accumulation cause impacts that fall more heavily on low-income countries. On the other hand, the costs of mitigating climate change through reduced emissions could slow down the economic catch-up of poor countries. Whether, and how much the recent decline in between-country inequalities will continue in the twenty-first century is uncertain, and the existing projections rarely account for climate factors. In this study, we build scenarios that account for the joint effects of mitigation costs and climate damages on inequality. We compute the evolution of country-by-country GDP, considering uncertainty in socioeconomic assumptions, emission pathways, mitigation costs, temperature response, and climate damages. We analyze the resulting 3408 scenarios using exploratory analysis tools. We show that the uncertainties associated with socioeconomic assumptions and damage estimates are the main drivers of future inequalities. We investigate under which conditions the cascading effects of these uncertainties can counterbalance the projected convergence of countries’ incomes. We also compare inequality levels across emission pathways and analyze when the effect of climate damages on inequality outweigh that of mitigation costs. We stress the divide between IAM- and econometrics-based damage functions in terms of their effect on inequality. If climate damages are as regressive as the latter suggest, climate mitigation policies are key to limit the rise of future inequalities between countries.

Adjust urban and rural road pricing for fair mobility

Abstract: Synergistically addressing local and global environmental damages rather than optimizing a specific aspect of the policy conundrum helps to effectively foster climate action in road transport while maintaining public acceptance and socially fair outcomes.

When does corporate social irresponsibility become news? Evidence from more than 1,000 brand transgressions across five countries

Abstract: Companies are increasingly held accountable for their corporate social irresponsibility (CSI). However, the extent to which a CSI event damages the firm largely depends on the coverage of this even...

Escalation of Scrutiny: The Gains from Dynamic Enforcement of Environmental Regulations

Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses a dynamic approach to enforcing air pollution regulations, with repeat offenders subject to high fines and designation as high priority violators (HPV). We estimate the value of dynamic enforcement by developing and estimating a dynamic model of a plant and regulator, where plants decide when to invest in pollution abatement technologies. We use a fixed grid approach to estimate random coefficient specifications. Investment, fines, and HPV designation are costly to most plants. Eliminating dynamic enforcement would raise pollution damages by 164% with constant fines or raise fines by 519% with constant pollution damages.

Spatial targeting of floodplain restoration to equitably mitigate flood risk

Abstract: Floodplain restoration offers an opportunity to enhance communities’ resilience to flooding. However, the degree to which these interventions mitigate damages is often unknown, and identifying the best locations for implementation is a challenge. Further, the extent to which the benefits of flood mitigation are equitably distributed within communities is rarely considered in restoration projects. Here, we develop a novel framework to optimize investments in floodplain restoration that maximizes the utility of avoided damages from flood inundation for a range of budgetary constraints. We estimate the expected reduction in flood damages from restoration interventions by integrating a hydraulic flood model and an economic damage cost model. Using equity-weighted utility functions, we explicitly evaluate how the value of reduction in flood damages varies for different property owners. We demonstrate the potential of this approach in the Lewis Creek watershed, located in Vermont, USA. Under all optimal scenarios, the benefits of avoided flood damages over a 100-year time period outweigh the costs of restoration by at least 5-to-1. Floodplain restoration has the potential to reduce the present value of damages by up to $400,000, a 5% decrease from the baseline, at a cost of only $75,000. We also show that the equity-weighted utility of flood mitigation increase when restoration interventions protect the lowest-income property owners, particularly those who live in mobile homes. Together, our results illuminate the importance of evaluating the distribution of benefits and costs associated with alternative restoration strategies, as well as underscore the capacity for floodplain restoration to build resilience to flooding.

A high-resolution wind damage model for Europe.

Abstract: Extreme wind events are among the costliest natural disasters in Europe, causing severe damages every year. Despite the significant impact, damages related to windstorms are an understudied topic in academia. For damage estimates, the community mostly relies on post-disaster insurance data, which is often not publicly available. Few studies offer more generic tools, but again these are often based on non-disclosed insurance data. To offer a generic, high-resolution, reproducible, and publicly accessible tool, this study presents a wind damage model that is built around publicly available hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data. We apply the model to assess building damages related to extratropical storms in Europe, but the methodology is applicable globally, given data availability, and to other hazards for which similar risk frameworks can be applied. The results show that for Europe, coastal regions are affected the most, with the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark as most affected countries. We find that the modelled damage estimates are in line with reported damages for a series of historical storms. The model is distributed as an open-source model to offer a transparent and useable windstorm damage model to a broad audience.

Making sense of the politics in the climate change loss & damage debate.

Abstract: The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (LD ii) coordination and iii) support to address losses and damages under the UNFCCC. So far, the work undertaken by the WIM Executive Committee (ExCom) has focused on enhancing understanding and awareness of the issue and promoting collaboration with relevant stakeholders. Delivering on the WIM’s third function on action and support has lagged behind, and ‘the political’ nature of LD yet we have very little insight into how the politics are understood within the realm of international LD conflicts on the legitimacy of LD tensions between the technical and political dimension of the debate; debates over accountability for losses and damages incurred; and the connection of L&D with other unresolved issues under the Convention.

COVID-19: the critical balance between appropriate governmental restrictions and expected economic, psychological and social consequences in Italy. Are we going in the right direction?

Abstract: Since the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic infection by the World Health Organization, many governmental restrictions have been differently applied in the involved countries in order to contain the spread of the infection; Italy applied severe restrictive, public measures actually confining the entire population to an almost complete lockdown for several weeks; the restrictive quarantine can be considered controversial when excessively prolonged over time, due to many possible economic, psychologic and social consequences with a remarkable impact on the population. In this article we analyze possible collateral damages related to the prolonged quarantine.

Novel Framework for the Quantification of Pavement Damages in the Overload Corridors

Abstract: Recent traffic trends and permit issuance show significant mobility demands in the energy sectors across the nation. The increase in the axle loads and frequency of operations of over-weight (OW) t...

The economic effects of financial relief delays following a natural disaster

Abstract: In the U.S. the economic damages of natural disasters have increased substantially over time. While private insurance payouts tend to arrive relatively quickly, federal recovery monies are often al...

Economic impact of floods in the Indian states

Abstract: We examine the impact of economic development and the role of political alignment on the fatalities and damages due to floods using state-level panel data for 19 Indian states over the period 1980–2011. The empirical results confirm that economic development leads to a decline in flood fatalities and damages due to floods across Indian states. This study also examines the role of politics in the prevention of flood fatalities. We find that both state election years and political alignment influence the extent of flood fatalities. The results suggest that not only economic development but also healthy political coordination between the central government and the states is essential to mitigate the impact of floods.

The economic loss of health effect damages from PM2.5 pollution in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration.

Abstract: The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration is an important growth pole of China's economy, but the rapid economic growth is accompanied by serious air pollution problems. In this paper, the latest available PM2.5 monitoring data in 2015-2017 and exposure-response relationship model are used to quantitatively analyze the health effect damages due to PM2.5 pollution. The way of disease cost, adjusted human capital, and willingness to pay were adopted to estimate the economic loss of health effect damages. The results show that health effect damages of PM2.5 pollution in 2015-2017 were 11.9251 million, 11.4292 million, and 11.1012 million, respectively, accounting for 7.41%, 7.05%, and 6.94% of the total population of this area. The health effect economic loss was 97.398 billion RMB, 93.516 billion RMB, and 94.485 billion RMB, accounting for 1.73%, 1.53%, and 1.41% of the GDP. Chronic bronchitis and premature death due to PM2.5 are the main sources of health effect economic loss. Elderly people and infants are vulnerable groups of PM2.5 pollution. Affected by economic growth level, population density, and economic structure, Heze, Zhengzhou, Handan, and Liaocheng were greatly affected by PM2.5 pollution, and their health effect damages was larger. The health effect damages and health effect economic loss due to PM2.5 pollution in this area show a downward trend, indicating that air pollution reduction measures have played a positive role. However, the whole effect is still large. According to the results, this paper puts forward the policies.

Antitrust Divestiture in Network Industries

Abstract: The landmark Microsoft case raises challenging questions concerning antitrust remedies. In this Article, we propose a framework for assessing the costs and benefits of different remedies, particularly divestiture, in monopolization cases involving network industries. Our approach can assist a court or enforcement agency not only in analyzing the welfare effects of divestiture, but also in choosing more generally among alternative kinds of remedies. The framework would, for example, apply to a court's choice between damages and injunctive remedies or between behavioral injunctions and structural injunctions. After developing our framework, we apply it to the divestiture proposals made by the government and others in the Microsoft case. We argue that those proposals leave open important questions that must be answered before divestiture can be shown to be either the best remedial alternative or to create likely net gains in economic welfare.