Topic
Decision analysis
About: Decision analysis is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 14916 publications have been published within this topic receiving 497922 citations. The topic is also known as: Decision aids.
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Book•
01 Jan 1976TL;DR: In this article, a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Abstract: Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.
8,895 citations
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TL;DR: This approach seems to be of fundamental importance to artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive sciences, especially in the areas of machine learning, knowledge acquisition, decision analysis, knowledge discovery from databases, expert systems, decision support systems, inductive reasoning, and pattern recognition.
Abstract: Rough set theory, introduced by Zdzislaw Pawlak in the early 1980s [11, 12], is a new mathematical tool to deal with vagueness and uncertainty. This approach seems to be of fundamental importance to artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive sciences, especially in the areas of machine learning, knowledge acquisition, decision analysis, knowledge discovery from databases, expert systems, decision support systems, inductive reasoning, and pattern recognition.
7,185 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze a sequential decision model in which each decision maker looks at the decisions made by previous decision makers in taking her own decision, and they show that the decision rules that are chosen by optimizing individuals will be characterized by herd behavior.
Abstract: We analyze a sequential decision model in which each decision maker looks at the decisions made by previous decision makers in taking her own decision. This is rational for her because these other decision makers may have some information that is important for her. We then show that the decision rules that are chosen by optimizing individuals will be characterized by herd behavior; i.e., people will be doing what others are doing rather than using their information. We then show that the resulting equilibrium is inefficient.
5,956 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1993TL;DR: The adaptive decision maker: a look backward and a look forward Appendix Footnotes Bibliography.
Abstract: Preface 1. Adaptive decision behaviour: an introduction 2. Contingencies in decision making 3. Deciding how to decide: an effort/accuracy framework 4. Studying contingent decisions: an integrated methodology 5. Constructive processes in decision making 6. Why may adaptivity fail? 7. Improving decisions and other practical matters 8. The adaptive decision maker: a look backward and a look forward Appendix Footnotes Bibliography.
4,056 citations