Showing papers on "Developing country published in 1998"

Global Burden of Diabetes, 1995–2025: Prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections

Abstract: OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are ≥20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urban-rural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to United Nations population estimates and projections for the number of adults aged ≥20 years in all countries of the world. For developing countries, urban and rural populations were considered separately RESULTS Prevalence of diabetes in adults worldwide was estimated to be 4.0% in 1995 and to rise to 5.4% by the year 2025. It is higher in developed than in developing countries. The number of adults with diabetes in the world will rise from 135 million in 1995 to 300 million in the year 2025. The major part of this numerical increase will occur in developing countries. There will be a 42% increase, from 51 to 72 million, in the developed countries and a 170% increase, from 84 to 228 million, in the developing countries. Thus, by the year 2025, >75% of people with diabetes will reside in developing countries, as compared with 62% in 1995. The countries with the largest number of people with diabetes are, and will be in the year 2025, India, China, and the U.S. In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45–64 years. In the developed countries, the majority of people with diabetes are aged ≥65 years. This pattern will be accentuated by the year 2025. There are more women than men with diabetes, especially in developed countries. In the future, diabetes will be increasingly concentrated in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS This report supports earlier predictions of the epidemic nature of diabetes in the world during the first quarter of the 21st century. It also provides a provisional picture of the characteristics of the epidemic. Worldwide surveillance of diabetes is a necessary first step toward its prevention and control, which is now recognized as an urgent priority.

The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract: The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a large sample of developed and developing countries in 1980-94 using a multivariate logit econometric model. The results suggest that crises tend to erupt when the macroeconomic environment is weak, particularly when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates are clearly associated with systemic banking sector problems, and there is some evidence that vulnerability to balance of payments crises has played a role. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were particularly at risk, as were countries with weak law enforcement.

Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms

Abstract: Recent research uses census-type longitudinal data to establish many new facts about turnover, entry, and exit among competing firms. Mean regression fosters stable concentration levels. Entrants experience high infant mortality, but entry buys them options to expand. Changes in control resemble a job-matching process. These patterns are reconciled with traditional industrial organization based on equilibrium models to establish relative roles of random and structural determinants of concentration and the normative role of turnover in raising industry productivity and efficiency. The patterns vary little from country to country, except for less sunkenness (more mobility) in developing countries.

Are Your Wages Set in Beijing

Abstract: In the 1980s and 1990s, the demand for less-skilled workers fell in advanced countries. In the United States, this showed up primarily in falling real wages for less-educated men, although hours worked by these men also declined. In OECD-Europe, it took the form of increased unemployment for the less skilled. Over the same period, manufacturing imports from third world countries to the United States and OECD-Europe increased greatly. In 1991, the bilateral U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China was second only to its deficit with Japan. The rough concordance of falling demand for less-skilled workers with increased imports of manufacturing goods from third world countries has created a lively debate about the economic consequences of trade between advanced and developing countries. This debate differs strikingly from the debate over the benefits and costs of trade in the last few decades. In the 1960s and 1970s, many in the third world feared that trade would impoverish them, or push them to the periphery of the world economy; virtually no one in advanced countries was concerned about competition from less-developed countries. In the 1980s and 1990s, by contrast, most of the third world has embraced the global economy; whereas many in the advanced world worry over the possible

Why Most Developing Countries Should Not Try New Zealand's Reforms

Abstract: Developing and transitional countries have an understandable desire to accelerate public sector reform by adopting the most advanced innovations devised by developed countries. In many countries, interest has been stimulated by the New Zealand (NZ) model which gives public managers broad discretion to operate within an accountability framework that specifies the results to be achieved and closely monitors performance. Despite the interest and the sales efforts, only a few developed countries (such as Iceland and Singapore) have adopted selected features of the NZ system; others (such as Sweden and the United Kingdom) have embraced a managerial ethic, without subscribing to the hard-edged contractualism that differentiates New Zealand's reforms from those tried elsewhere. To the author's knowledge, however, not a single developing or transitional country has installed the full NZ model, though quite a few have been enchanted by the prospect of leapfrogging to the front ranks in the international reform sweepstakes. It is his belief there are important preconditions for successfully implementing the new public management (NPM) approach; these should not be ignored by countries striving to uplift themselves. While arguments that managerial deficiencies should be the driving factor in determining the suitability of NZ-type reforms, this article argues that they should be deterring factors. The greater the shortcomings in a country's established management practices, the less suitable the reforms are. In his view, significant progress can be made through a logical sequence of steps that diminishes the scope of informality, while building managerial capacity, confidence, and experience, and outlines some of the key steps. First, progress in the public sector requires parallel advances in the market sector. Second, modernizing the public sector means establishing reliable, workable, external controls. Third, in the process of developing skills, confidence, trust, and public-regarding values, politicians and officials must concentrate on the basic process of public management. Finally, once the basics have been mastered, the public sector should be organized according to the principles of internal control.

International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving

Abstract: A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavior is examined using data for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. Both time-series and cross sectional estimates are obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offset on private saving of changes in public saving and (for developing countries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth are important determinants of private saving rates, and that interest rates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects. Increases in per capita gross domestic product seem to increase saving at low income levels (relative to the United States) but decrease it at higher ones.

Women's Representation in National Legislatures: Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract: This note expands research on representation of women in national legislatures. Existing models are tested on newer data in advanced industrialized democracies, and these models are then applied to a sample of democracies in developing countries. There are striking differences across the two samples. While a proportional representation electoral system, women's participation in the labor force, the cultural standing of women, and the country's level of development all have positive effects on female representation in OECD democracies, none of these variables have a statistically significant and positive effect in less developed countries. These findings strongly suggest the existence of a threshold. Only after that threshold is passed do proportional representation, labor force participation, and cultural standing exert positive influences on the representation of women.

Global Epidemiology of Hemoglobin Disorders

Abstract: Thalassemias and the hemoglobinopathies such as Hemoglobins S, C and E, are now a global problem. They have spread through migration from their native areas in the Mediterranean, Africa and Asia and are now endemic throughout Europe, the Americas and Australia. Comprehensive control programs in recent years have succeeded in limiting the numbers of new births and prolonging life in affected individuals. Such programs have been successful in a minority of countries and have little global impact. Over 300,000 infants with major syndromes are born every year and the majority die undiagnosed, untreated or under-treated. Countries may be divided into three general categories according to the services available: A. Endemic Mediterranean countries. In these long-established prevention programs have succeeded in achieving 80%-100% prevention. Specialized clinics able to provide optimum treatment. B. Areas of the developed, industrialized world where prevalence is increasing because of migration. These countries have the means to provide adequate control but have problems in reaching immigrant groups with different cultural background. C. Countries of the developing world where the provision of services is hampered by economic difficulties, other health priorities due to high infant mortality from infectious diseases, and religious/cultural constraints.

Gatekeepers of Growth: The International Political Economy of Central Banking in Developing Countries

Abstract: Central banks can shape economic growth, affect income distribution, influence a country's foreign relations and determine the extent of its democracy. This study focuses on central banking in emerging market economies. Surveying the dramatic worldwide trend towards increased central bank independence in the 1990s, the book argues that global forces must be at work. These forces, the book contends, centre on the character of international financial intermediation. Going beyond an explanation of central bank independence, Maxfield posits a general framework for analyzing the impact of different types of international capital flows on the politics of economic policymaking in developing countries. The book suggests that central bank independence in emerging market countries does not spring from law but rather from politics. As long as politicians value them, central banks will enjoy independence. Historical analyses of central banks in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Thailand, and quantitative analyses of a larger sample of developing countries corroborate this investor signalling explanation of broad trends in central bank status.

Strategies for reducing maternal mortality in developing countries: what can we learn from the history of the industrialized West?

Abstract: Ten years of Safe Motherhood Initiative notwithstanding, many developing countries still experience maternal mortality levels similar to those of industrialized countries in the early 20th century. This paper analyses the conditions under which the industrialized world has reduced maternal mortality over the last 100 years. Preconditions appear to have been early awareness of the magnitude of the problem, recognition that most maternal deaths are avoidable, and mobilization of professionals and the community. Still, there were considerable differences in the timing and speed of reduction of maternal mortality between countries, related to the way professionalization of delivery care was determined: firstly, by the willingness of the decision-makers to take up their responsibility; secondly, by making modern obstetrical care available to the population (particularly by encouragement or dissuasion of midwifery care); and thirdly, by the extent to which professionals were held accountable for addressing maternal health in an effective way. Reduction of maternal mortality in developing countries today is hindered by limited awareness of the magnitude and manageability of the problem, and ill-informed professionalization strategies focusing on antenatal care and training of traditional birth attendants. These strategies have by and large been ineffective and diverted attention from development of professional first-line midwifery and second-line hospital delivery care.

Shipping Costs, Manufactured Exports, and Economic Growth

Abstract: In the Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith put great stress on the relationship between geographic location and international trade. Smith observed that a more extensive division of labor was likely to develop first along sea coasts and navigable rivers, where transport costs were especially low: As by means of water-carriage a more extensive market is opened to every sort of industry than what land-carriage alone can afford it, so it is upon the sea-coast, and along the banks of navigable rivers, that industry of every kind naturally begins to sub-divide and improve itself, and it is frequently not till a long time after that those improvements extend themselves to the inland part of the country. In this paper authors examine some empirical evidence on differences in shipping costs across developing countries, and its impact on manufactured exports and economic growth. The authors find that geographical considerations, specifically access to the sea and distance to major markets, have a strong impact on shipping costs, which in turn influence success in manufactured exports and long-run economic growth. Countries with lower shipping costs have had faster manufactured export growth and overall economic growth during the past thirty years than country’s with higher shipping costs. The evidence suggests that high-shipping cost countries will find it more difficult to promote export-led development, even if they reduce tariff rates, remove quantitative restrictions, and follow prudent macroeconomic policies. At a minimum, firms in such countries will be forced to pay lower wages to compensate for higher transport costs in order to be able to compete on world markets for manufactures. The required offset in wages might be quite substantial in the usual case for developing countries in which imported inputs constitute a high proportion of the value of exports. In such sectors, high transport costs can easily wipe out export profitability even if wage levels were to fall to zero. As a result, geographically remote countries such as Mongolia, Rwanda, Burundi, Bolivia may not realistically be able to replicate the East Asian model of rapid growth based on the export of labor-intensive manufactes.

Educational Homogamy in 65 Countries: An Explanation of Differences in Openness Using Country-Level Explanatory Variables

Abstract: Loglinear analysis is used to assess the degree of educational homogamy in 65 countries. Differences in educational homogamy among these countries are then explained in terms of level of economic development, degree of political democracy, the dominant religion, and the technological background of developing countries. An inverted U-curve relationship is found between level of economic development and educational homogamy. Furthermore, cultural characteristics are found to be important explanatory variables. Grouping countries into "families of nations" according to dominant religion and technological background helps explain the differences among countries. Catholic, Muslim, Confucian, and mixed Catholic/Protestant countries show significantly more educational homogamy than do Protestant countries, and industrializing societies with a horticultural background show significantly less educational homogamy than do industrializing societies with an agrarian background.

Reasons why women have induced abortions: evidence from 27 countries.

Abstract: This study examined abortion motivation among women. Analysis was based on published findings from 27 countries an analysis of 3 countries and representative surveys from 52 countries. Popline Medline and Population Index databases bibliographies and unpublished sources were also used. Womens desire to postpone or stop childbearing ranged from 39% in the Central African Republic to 89% in Japan. In 23 countries women chose abortion for many reasons. In 4 developing Asian countries and 3 developed countries women commonly desired a postponement or stop to childbearing. In 10 out of 20 countries 50% of women gave birth timing and family size control reasons for abortion. A second key reason was poverty and economic concerns. Being young and unmarried was a key reason in some countries. Risk to maternal health was less important in Latin America and developed countries. African women tended to report socioeconomic reasons followed by postponement or limiting of births. Asian women favored family size control reasons. Latin American women chose socioeconomic and relationship reasons. Developed countries favored family size control and timing reasons. In 10 countries education was not associated age was moderately associated and marital status was associated with reasons. Married women tended to give socioeconomic and family size control reasons. Unmarried women cited socioeconomic factors and youth or parental objections. In the US abortion reasons were similar to reasons for stopping childbearing. Research affirms that improved contraceptive practice is an important way to reduce abortion.

A comparative cost analysis of newborn screening for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia in Texas

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection associated with injecting drug use has been reported in at least 98 countries and territories worldwide There is evidence that new epidemics are emerging in different regions, including Eastern Europe, Latin American, and the eastern Mediterranean The authors provide a global overview of the situation of HIV infection associated with injecting drug use and responses that have been implemented in various developing and transitional countries METHODS: Although there has been extensive documentation of the extent and nature of of HIV infection associated with injecting drug use in many developed countries and the various interventions implemented in those countries, there is very limited information on the situation in developing and transitional countries This chapter brings together information from a broad range of sources, including published literature; "gray" or "fugitive" literature; data collected by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations International Drug Control Programme (UNDCP); personal communications; and direct observation by the authors The authors have traveled extensively to a wide range of developing and transitional countries and have accessed information not readily available to the international research community RESULTS: A wide range of HIV prevention strategies targeting injecting drug users (IDUs) has been implemented in developing countries and countries in transition Interventions include opioid substitution pharmacotherapy, needle syringe exchange and distribution, condom and bleach distribution, outreach to IDUs, peer education programs, and social network interventions In some communities, completely new models of intervention and service delivery have developed in response to specific local needs and limitations CONCLUSIONS: Although empirical data may currently be lacking to demonstrate the effectiveness of may HIV prevention programs targeting IDUs in developing and transitional countries, there is evidence that innovative HIV prevention initiatives are being implemented and sustained in a wide range of sociocultural settings

Initial Conditions, Social Capital and Growth in Africa

Abstract: Observable variables capturing initial conditions can account for well over half of the variation in developing country growth rates. This paper investigates their role in explaining Africa's recent economic history. Should the origins of slow growth be traced to Africa's social arrangements, high inequality and ethnic diversity? Based on cross-country empirical work, this paper argues that the best answers are yes, no and maybe.

Globalization and construction industry development: implications of recent developments in the construction sector in Asia

Abstract: Recent developments in the construction sector in the Asian region demonstrate three trends: (1) larger private sector participation in infrastructure projects, (2) increasing vertical integration in the packaging of construction projects, and (3) increased foreign participation in domestic construction. This paper attributes the trends to the globalization and deregulation of markets necessitated by fiscal, technological and managerial constraints. Although these trends present intra-Asian opportunities, there are also areas of concern. The trends have helped polarize the financial and technical superiority of the developed countries and the corresponding inferiority of the developed countries in the region of the developing ones. In the long term, this gap could be filled through technology transfer. In the short term, however, there are concerns that imported construction services could grow at the expense of the indigenous sectors of the developing countries. This paper illustrates this dilemma with t...

The Political Economy of Reform

Abstract: In this book, Federico Sturzenegger and Mariano Tommasi propose formal models to answer some of the questions raised by the recent reform experience of many Latin American and East European countries. They apply common standards of analytical rigor to the study of economic and political behavior, assuming political agents to be rational and forward-looking, with expectations consistent with the properties of the underlying model. The book is organized around three basic questions: first, why do reforms take place? Second, how are reforms implemented? And third, which candidates are most likely to undertake reform? Although most of the chapters deal with policy issues in developing economies, the findings also apply to areas such as social security and health care reform in industrialized countries.

An overview of cancer survival in developing countries.

Abstract: This paper presents an overview of cancer survival in 10 populations in China Cuba India Philippines and Thailand. It compares results for 10 developing country cancer registries on a site-by-site basis between the registries themselves and also between developing and developed countries in general. Three broad categories of results obtained from the comparison of survival in developed and developing country registries are shown. The magnitude of differences is then plotted against the three major elements of cancer control: primary prevention early detection and treatment. It is noted that the differences in survival were even more striking for cancer sites such as testis leukemia and lymphoma in which improved multimodality treatment has increased long-term survival. The survival estimates reported from the 10 developing country registries probably include some of the best survival results in the Third World. Based on the findings four types of approaches in the development of cancer control measures are recommended: population-based cancer registries for many developing countries high-resolution studies community-based intervention trials and balanced investment in the development of adequate diagnostic and treatment facilities.

The evolution of tourism planning in Third-World countries: a critique

Abstract: The trend in tourism development has been to use comprehensive, flexible, community driven and systematic planning approaches. These approaches seek to sustain tourism as an agent for socio-cultural and economic development. Contemporary planning approaches were developed by taking into account the socio-economic, political and human resources conditions in developed rather than in developing countries. Therefore, these planning approaches may not be transferable to and implementable in developing countries without considerable adaptations. © 1998 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multinationals and the Developing Countries

Abstract: In Multinational Enterprise and Economic Analysis Caves provides a summary of economic research on multinationals and developing countries. Yet, for policy makers major questions remain unanswered. The gaps can be grouped into four categories: the impact of the widespread change in development strategies on multinationals, the net impact of foreign direct investment on host countries, the causes of declining tensions between developing countries and foreign investors, and links between our economic knowledge and the decisions that face private and government managers.

The Political Economy of Reform

Abstract: In this book, Federico Sturzenegger and Mariano Tommasi propose formal models to answer some of the questions raised by the recent reform experience of many Latin American and East European countries. They apply common standards of analytical rigor to the study of economic and political behavior, assuming political agents to be rational and forward-looking, with expectations consistent with the properties of the underlying model. The book is organized around three basic questions: first, why do reforms take place? Second, how are reforms implemented? And third, which candidates are most likely to undertake reform? Although most of the chapters deal with policy issues in developing economies, the findings also apply to areas such as social security and health care reform in industrialized countries.

Household Work as a Deterrent to Schooling: An Analysis of Adolescent Girls in Peru

Abstract: Why have microeconomic development studies overlooked the possibility that household work is a primary deterrent to girls' schooling? Most developing countries have sought to increase educational attainment as a development tool. This policy prescription has been prompted by the many studies indicating that education increases productivity, health, and living standards, and is an important component of economic development. In particular, researchers have documented the extraordinary benefits yielded by the education of women and girls. According to Lawrence Summers, edtcation of women and girls yields the highest return investment possible in the developing world.' Despite this evidence, women's education lags significantly behind that of men in many developing countries.2 Researchers have conducted numerous studies to investigate the microeconomic factors that affect the educational attainment of children in less developed countries. Many researchers and policymakers implicitly assume that the major deterrent to schooling is market work. According to Mark Rosenzweig, the major cost of education in less developed countries is the opportunity cost of attending school.3 He argues that the primary alternative to schooling in low-income countries is labor market employment. Household work, however, may present a more significant barrier to schooling for girls than for boys. For example, in Brazil, a teenage girl is more likely than her teenage brother to take over family domestic chores when there is a young.child at home and their mother is working.4

Research in Developing Countries: Taking `Benefit' Seriously

Abstract: An April 1998 New York Times Magazine article described Ronald Munger's efforts to obtain blood samples from a group of extremely impoverished people in the Philippine island of Cebu.[1] Munger sought the blood to study whether there was a genetic cause for this group's unusually high incidence of cleft lip and palate. One of many obstacles to the research project was the need to obtain the cooperation of the local health officer. It was not clear to Munger, or the reader, whether the health officer had a bona fide interest in protecting the populace or was looking for a bribe. The health officer asked Munger a few perfunctory questions about informed consent and the study's ethical review in the United States, which Munger answered. Munger also explained the benefits that mothers and children would derive from participating in the research. The mothers would learn their blood types (which they apparently desired) and whether they were anemic. If they were anemic, they would be given iron pills. Lunch would be served, and raffles arranged so that families could win simple toys and other small items. Munger told the health officer that if his hypotheses were correct, the research would benefit the population of Cebu: if the research shows that increased folate and vitamin B6 reduces the risk of cleft lip and palate, families could reduce the risk of facial deformities in their future offspring. The reporter noted that the health officer "laughs aloud at the suggestion that much of what is being discovered in American laboratories will make it back to Cebu any time soon." Reflecting on his experience with another simple intervention, iodized salt, the health officer said that when salt was iodized, the price rose threefold "so those who need it couldn't afford it and those who didn't need it are the only ones who could afford it." The simple blood collecting mission to Cebu illustrates almost all the issues presented by research in developing countries. First is the threshold question of the goal of the research and its importance to the population represented by the research subjects. Next is the quality of informed consent, including whether the potential subjects thought that participation in the research was related to free surgical care that was offered in the same facility (although it clearly was not) and whether one could adequately explain genetic hypotheses to an uneducated populace. Finally, there is the question whether the population from which subjects were drawn could benefit from the research. This research intervention is very low risk--the collection of 10 drops of blood from affected people and their family members. The risk of job or insurance discrimination that genetic research poses in this country did not exist for the Cebu population; ironically, they were protected from the risk of economic discrimination by the profound poverty in which they lived. Even this simple study raises the most fundamental question: "Why is it acceptable for researchers in developed countries to use citizens of developing countries as research subjects?" A cautionary approach to permitting research with human subjects in underdeveloped countries has been recommended because of the risk of their inadvertent or deliberate exploitation by researchers from developed countries. This cautionary approach generally is invoked when researchers propose to use what are considered "vulnerable populations," such as prisoners and children, as research subjects.[2] Vulnerable populations are those that are less able to protect themselves, either because they are not capable of making their own decisions or because they are particularly susceptible to mistreatment.[3] For example, children may be incapable of giving informed consent or of standing up to adult authority, while prisoners are especially vulnerable to being coerced into becoming subjects. Citizens of developing countries are often in vulnerable situations because of their lack of political power, lack of education, unfamiliarity with medical interventions, extreme poverty, or dire need for health care and nutrition. …