Showing papers on "Earnings published in 2017"

Learning by working in big cities

Abstract: Individual earnings are higher in bigger cities. We consider three reasons: spatial sorting of initially more productive workers, static advantages from workers' current location, and learning by working in bigger cities. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we find that workers in bigger cities do not have higher initial ability as reflected in fixed-effects. Instead, they obtain an immediate static premium and accumulate more valuable experience. The additional value of experi- ence in bigger cities persists after leaving and is stronger for those with higher initial ability. This explains both the higher mean and greater dispersion of earnings in bigger cities.

It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News

Abstract: We propose a direct measure of abnormal institutional investor attention (AIA) using news searching and news reading activity for specific stocks on Bloomberg terminals. AIA is highly correlated with institutional trading measures and related to, but different from, other investor attention proxies. Contrasting AIA with retail attention measured by Google search activity, we find that institutional attention responds more quickly to major news events, leads retail attention, and facilitates permanent price adjustment. The well-documented price drifts following both earnings announcements and analyst recommendation changes are driven by announcements to which institutional investors fail to pay sufficient attention.Received February 24, 2016; editorial decision December 29, 2016 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?

Abstract: We disaggregate the self-employed into incorporated and unincorporated to distinguish between “entrepreneurs” and other business owners. We show that the incorporated self-employed and their businesses engage in activities that demand comparatively strong nonroutine cognitive abilities, while the unincorporated and their firms perform tasks demanding relatively strong manual skills. People who become incorporated business owners tend to be more educated and— as teenagers—score higher on learning aptitude tests, exhibit greater self-esteem, and engage in more illicit activities than others. The combination of “smart” and “illicit” tendencies as youths accounts for both entry into entrepreneurship and the comparative earnings of entrepreneurs. Individuals tend to experience a material increase in earnings when becoming entrepreneurs, and this increase occurs at each decile of the distribution.

CEO age and stock price crash risk

Abstract: We show that firms with younger CEOs are more likely to experience stock price crashes, including crashes caused by revelation of negative news in the form of breaks in strings of consecutive earnings increases. Such strings are accompanied by large increases in CEO compensation that do not dissipate with crashes. These findings suggest that CEOs have financial incentives to hoard bad news earlier in their career, which increases future crashes. This negative impact of CEO age effect is strongest in the presence of managerial discretion. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of CEO age for firm policies and outcomes.

Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration

Abstract: We analyze the secular decline in gross interstate migration in the United States from 1991 to 2011. We argue that migration fell because of a decline in the geographic specificity of returns to occupations, together with an increase in workers' ability to learn about other locations before moving. Micro data on earnings and occupations across space provide evidence for lower geographic specificity. Other explanations do not fit the data. A calibrated model formalizes the geographic specificity and information mechanisms and is consistent with cross-sectional and time-series evidence. Our mechanisms can explain at least half of the decline in migration.

Beyond gender diversity: How specific attributes of female directors affect earnings management

Abstract: We apply the system GMM regression estimation approach to a matched sample of French firms listed on Euronext Paris during the period 2001–2010 in order to investigate the relationship between female directors and earnings management by considering their specific (statutory and demographic) attributes. We first find that the presence of female directors deters managers from managing earnings. However, this finding does not hold when the statutory and demographic attributes of female directors are taken into account, thus showing that the detection and the correction of earnings management require particular competencies and skills. Interestingly, we find that business expertise and audit committee membership are key attributes of female directors that promote the effective monitoring of earnings management. An important implication of our findings is that the decision to appoint women on corporate boards should be based more on their statutory and demographic attributes than on blind implementation of gender quotas. Finally, our supplementary analysis reveals that female CEOs and CFOs are strongly inclined to reduce earnings management.

Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labour Market Expectations: Shrinking the Black Box of Gender

Abstract: Standard observed characteristics explain only part of the differences between men and women in education choices and labor market trajectories. Using an experiment to derive students’ levels of overconfidence, and preferences for competitiveness and risk, this paper investigates whether these behavioral biases and preferences explain gender differences in college major choices and expected future earnings. In a sample of high ability undergraduates, we find that competitiveness and overconfidence, but not risk aversion, is systematically related with expectations about future earnings: individuals who are overconfident and overly competitive have significantly higher earnings expectations. Moreover, gender differences in overconfidence and competitiveness explain about 18% of the gender gap in earnings expectations. These experimental measures explain as much of the gender gap in earnings expectations as a rich set of control variables, including test scores and family background, and they are poorly proxied by these same control variables, underscoring that they represent independent variation. While expected earnings are related to college major choices, the experimental measures are not related with college major choice.

Why Should Women Get Less? Evidence on the Gender Pay Gap from Multifactorial Survey Experiments:

Abstract: Gender pay gaps likely persist in Western societies because both men and women consider somewhat lower earnings for female employees than for otherwise similar male employees to be fair. Two different theoretical approaches explain “legitimate” wage gaps: same-gender referent theory and reward expectations theory. The first approach states that women compare their lower earnings primarily with that of other underpaid women; the second approach argues that both men and women value gender as a status variable that yields lower expectations about how much each gender should be paid for otherwise equal work. This article is the first to analyze hypotheses contrasting the two theories using an experimental factorial survey design. In 2009, approximately 1,600 German residents rated more than 26,000 descriptions of fictitious employees. The labor market characteristics of each employee and the amount of information given about them were experimentally varied across all descriptions. The results primarily suppor...

Mining corporate annual reports for intelligent detection of financial statement fraud A comparative study of machine learning methods

Abstract: We combine features derived from financial information and managerial comments.We employ feature selection and classification using a wide range of machine learning methods.Analysts forecasts of revenues and earnings are necessary to detect fraudulent firms.Misclassification cost ratio of 1:2 is based on the loss attributable to financial statement fraud and audit fees.Interpretable Nave Bayes-based models outperform remaining methods in terms of misclassification costs. Financial statement fraud has been serious concern for investors, audit firms, government regulators, and other capital market stakeholders. Intelligent financial statement fraud detection systems have therefore been developed to support decision-making of the stakeholders. Fraudulent misrepresentation of financial statements in managerial comments has been noticed in recent studies. As such, the purpose of this study was to examine whether an improved financial fraud detection system could be developed by combining specific features derived from financial information and managerial comments in corporate annual reports. To develop this system, we employed both intelligent feature selection and classification using a wide range of machine learning methods. We found that ensemble methods outperformed the remaining methods in terms of true positive rate (fraudulent firms correctly classified as fraudulent). In contrast, Bayesian belief networks (BBN) performed best on non-fraudulent firms (true negative rate). This finding is important because interpretable ``green flag values (for which fraud is likely absent) could be derived, providing potential decision support to auditors during client selection or audit planning. We also observe that both financial statements and text in annual reports can be utilised to detect non-fraudulent firms. However, non-annual report data (analysts forecasts of revenues and earnings) are necessary to detect fraudulent firms. This finding has important implications for selecting variables when developing early warning systems of financial statement fraud.

The Effect of Wealth on Individual and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Swedish Lotteries†

Abstract: We study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of Swedish lottery players. Winning a lottery prize modestly reduces earnings, with the reduction being immediate, persistent, and quite similar by age, education, and sex. A calibrated dynamic model implies lifetime marginal propensities to earn out of unearned income from −0.17 at age 20 to −0.04 at age 60, and labor supply elasticities in the lower range of previously reported estimates. The earnings response is stronger for winners than their spouses, which is inconsistent with unitary household labor supply models. (JEL D14, J22, J31)

Income, Earnings, and Poverty Data From the 2007 American Community Survey

Abstract: This report presents data on income, earnings, and poverty by detailed socioeconomic characteristics for the United States, states, and lower levels of geography based on information collected in the 2006 and 2007 American Community Surveys (ACS). A description of the ACS is provided in the text box “What Is the American Community Survey?” The U.S. Census Bureau also reports income, earnings, and poverty data based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC). Following the standard specified by the Offi ce of Management and Budget (OMB) in Statistical Policy Directive 14, the Census Bureau computes offi cial national poverty rates using the CPS ASEC and reports the 2007 data in the publication Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007. The 2007 ACS is the second year of the survey’s implementation including both housing units and group quarters in its sample.2 The ACS is designed to provide detailed estimates of housing, demographic, social, and economic characteristics for the states, counties, places, and other localities. This report makes state-level comparisons over the 2006 to 2007 time period. Such comparisons should be interpreted with caution because of overlapping income reference periods.

Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise

Abstract: Foreign producer services can provide substantial benefits for domestic firms. We build on earlier monopolistic-competition models of intermediate producer services in this paper. Results show that: (1) while foreign services are partial-equilibrium substitutes for domestic skilled labour, they may he general-equilibrium complements, (2) service trade can provide crucial missing inputs that reverse comparative advantage in final goods, (3) the ‘optimal’ tax on imported services may be a subsidy, and (4) in our dynamic formulation, there may be earnings losses for immobile workers along a transition path that suggest potentially important equity consequences of reform.

How effective are active labor market policies in developing countries ? a critical review of recent evidence

Abstract: Jobs are the number one policy concern of policy makers in many countries. The global financial crisis, rising demographic pressures, high unemployment rates, and concerns over automation all make it seem imperative that policy makers employ increasingly more active labor market policies. This paper critically examines recent evaluations of labor market policies that have provided vocational training, wage subsidies, job search assistance, and assistance moving to argue that many active labor market policies are much less effective than policymakers typically assume. Many of these evaluations find no significant impacts on either employment or earnings. One reason is that urban labor markets appear to work reasonably well in many cases, with fewer market failures than is often thought. As a result, there is less of a role for many traditional active labor market policies than is common practice. The review then discusses examples of job creation policies that do seem to offer promise, and concludes with lessons for impact evaluation and policy is this area.

Impact of intellectual capital on corporate performance: evidence from the Arab region

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to fill a gap in the intellectual capital (IC) literature by providing insights into the relationship between IC and corporate performance among Arab companies and second, to challenge the validity of the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient (VAIC) as a measure of IC’s contribution to performance. Design/methodology/approach The research sample included 100 publicly traded Arab companies selected by Forbes Middle East and ranked as top performers in terms of sales, profits, assets, and market value. The methodology included assessing the impact of IC components on company earnings, profitability, efficiency, and market performance for the period between 2011 and 2015. Research hypotheses were tested through the presentation of descriptive statistics, normality tests, correlation matrix, and multiple regression models. Findings The research yielded ambiguous results. Earnings and profitability were significantly affected by structural and physical capital; efficiency was determined primarily by physical capital; and market performance was mainly influenced by human capital. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of the research comes from disadvantages of VAIC as the measure of IC’s contributions to performance. Originality/value The paper fills a void in the study of IC and corporate performance among Arab companies.

The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries

Abstract: We draw lessons from existing work and our own analysis on the effects of parental leave and other interventions aimed at aiding families. The outcomes of interest are female employment, gender gaps in earnings and fertility. We begin with a discussion of the historical introduction of family policies ever since the end of the nineteenth century and then turn to the details regarding family policies currently in effect across high-income nations. We sketch a framework concerning the effects of family policy to motivate our country- and micro-level evidence on the impact of family policies on gender outcomes. Most estimates of the impact of parental leave entitlement on female labor market outcomes range from negligible to weakly positive. The verdict is far more positive for the beneficial impact of spending on early education and childcare.

Equity Vesting and Investment

Abstract: This paper links the CEO’s concerns for the current stock price to reductions in real investment. These concerns depend on the amount of equity he intends to sell in the short-term, but actual equity sales are an endogenous decision. We use the amount of stock and options scheduled to vest in a given year as an instrument for equity sales. Such vesting is determined by equity grants made several years prior, and thus unlikely driven by current investment opportunities. An interquartile increase in instrumented equity sales is associated with a decline of 0.25% in the growth of R&D/assets, 4.6% of the average R&D/assets ratio. Vesting-induced equity sales also increase the likelihood of meeting or marginally beating analyst earnings forecasts, and are associated with higher returns to earnings announcements. More broadly, by introducing a measure of incentives that is not driven by the current contracting environment – vesting-induced equity sales – our paper suggests that CEO contracts affect real outcomes.

Economic impacts of child marriage : global synthesis report

Abstract: The international community is increasingly aware of the negative impacts of child marriage on a wide range of development outcomes. Ending child marriage is now part of the Sustainable Development Goals. Yet investments to end the practice remain limited across the globe and more could be done. In order to inspire greater commitments towards ending child marriage, this study demonstrates the negative impacts of the practice and their associated economic costs. The study looks at five domains of impacts: (i) fertility and population growth; (ii) health, nutrition, and violence; (iii) educational attainment and learning; (iv) labor force participation and earnings; and (v) participation, decision-making, and investments. Economic costs associated with the impacts are estimated for several of the impacts. When taken together across countries, the costs of child marriage are very high. They suggest that investing to end child marriage is not only the right thing to do, but also makes sense economically.

Product Market Competition and Managerial Disclosure of Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Import Tariff Rate Reductions

Abstract: This study examines the effect of product market competition on managerial disclosure of earnings forecasts using large reductions in U.S. import tariff rates to identify an exogenous inc...

The Expanding Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the LEHD-2000 Census

Abstract: The gender earnings gap is an expanding statistic over the lifecycle. We use the LEHD Census 2000 to understand the roles of industry, occupation, and establishment 14 years after leaving school. The gap for college graduates 26 to 39 years old expands by 34 log points, most occurring in the first 7 years. About 44 percent is due to disproportionate shifts by men into higher-earning positions, industries, and firms and about 56 percent to differential advances by gender within firms. Widening is greater for married individuals and for those in certain sectors. Non-college graduates experience less widening but with similar patterns.

Do Weather-Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?

Abstract: We investigate whether unpleasant environmental conditions affect stock market participants’ responses to information events. We draw from psychology research to develop a new prediction that weather-induced negative moods reduce market participants’ activity levels. Exploiting geographic variation in equity analysts’ locations, we find compelling evidence that analysts experiencing unpleasant weather are slower or less likely to respond to an earnings announcement relative to analysts responding to the same announcement but experiencing pleasant weather. Price association tests find evidence consistent with reduced activity due to weather-induced moods delaying equilibrium price adjustments following earnings announcements. We also use our analyst-based research design to re-examine an existing prediction that unpleasant weather induces investor pessimism, and find evidence of both analyst pessimism and reduced activity in the presence of unpleasant weather. Together, our study provides new evidence that both extends and reaffirms findings of a relation between unpleasant weather and market activities, and contributes to the broader psychology and economics literature on the impact of weather-induced mood on labor productivity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

General Equilibrium Effects of (Improving) Public Employment Programs: Experimental Evidence from India

Abstract: Public employment programs may affect poverty through both the income they provide and their effects on private labor markets. We estimate both effects, exploiting a large-scale experiment randomized across 157 sub-districts (with an average population of 62,500 each) that improved the implementation of India's national rural employment guarantee scheme. The reform raised low-income households' earnings by 13%, with 90% of this gain coming from non-program earnings, driven by increases in both market wages and private-sector employment. Workers' reservation wages increased and their employment gains were higher in treated areas with more concentrated landholdings, consistent with monopsonistic labor markets. We also find increases in credit, private assets, and longer-term enterprise counts and non-agricultural employment, underscoring the far-reaching market impacts of the initial reform. Overall the results suggest that public employment programs can effectively reduce poverty in developing countries, and may also improve economic efficiency.

Is the U.S. public corporation in trouble

Abstract: We examine the current state of the U.S. public corporation and how it has evolved over the last 40 years. After falling by 50 percent since its peak in 1997, the number of public corporations is now smaller than 40 years ago. These corporations are now much larger and over the last twenty years have become much older; they invest differently, as the average firm invests more in RD and compared to the 1990s, the ratio of investment to assets is lower, especially for large firms. Public firms have record high cash holdings and, in most recent years, the average firm has more cash than long-term debt. Measuring profitability by the ratio of earnings to assets, the average firm is less profitable, but that is driven by smaller firms. Earnings of public firms have become more concentrated--the top 200 firms in profits earn as much as all public firms combined. Firms' total payouts to shareholders as a percent of earnings are at record levels. Possible explanations for the current state of the public corporation include a decrease in the net benefits of being a public company, changes in financial intermediation, technological change, globalization, and consolidation through mergers.

Specialization Then and Now: Marriage, Children, and the Gender Earnings Gap across Cohorts

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the evolution of the gender gap associated with marriage and parental status, comparing cohorts born between 1936 and 1985. The model of household specialization and division of labor introduced by Becker posits that when forming households, couples will exploit the gains from trade by having one spouse specialize in market work while the other specializes in household work. Given the historical advantage of men in the labor market, the model predicts specialization by gender and therefore an earnings advantage for married men and an earnings disadvantage for married women. Is this model of specialization useful for understanding the evolution of the gender gap across generations of women? And what about children? Academic papers have shown that wages of mothers are significantly lower than those of non-mothers with similar human capital characteristics. We do not attempt to build a structural model here, but rather document how changing associations between marriage and earnings, and between children and earnings, have contributed to the gender gap in an "accounting" sense.

Exploring the Impact of Internal Corporate Governance on the Relation Between Disclosure Quality and Earnings Management in the UK Listed Companies

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of internal corporate governance on the relation between disclosure quality and earnings management in the UK listed companies, in particular whether governance mechanisms have deterrent effect on earnings management similar to firms’ disclosure quality. Unlike prior literature, we measure a number of board and audit committee-related governance instruments, three disclosure quality proxies (i.e. Investor Relation Magazine Award, Forward-Looking Disclosure and Analyst Forecast Accuracy) and the Modified Jones Model to test the hypotheses of the study on a matched-pair sample data of Investor Relation Magazine Award winning and non-winning firms. Our findings in the OLS and sensitivity analyses using Heckman Procedure and 2SLS regressions consistently report a significant negative association between earnings management and disclosure quality for all proxies in restraining earnings management. In contrast, corporate governance variables are mostly insignificantly related to earnings management. This provides an emerging trend of the outperformance of disclosure quality over internal governance mechanisms in lessening earnings management. These findings warrant due attention of the policy makers, investors, corporate firms and other stakeholders in shaping a high-quality disclosure and governance regime in corporate settings to mitigate managerial manipulations of earnings across the countries in the world.

The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation

Abstract: We draw lessons from existing work and our own analysis on the effects of parental leave and other interventions aimed at aiding families. The outcomes of interest are female employment, gender gaps in earnings and fertility. We begin with a discussion of the historical introduction of family policies ever since the end of the nineteenth century and then turn to the details regarding family policies currently in effect across high-income nations. We sketch a framework concerning the effects of family policy to motivate our country- and micro-level evidence on the impact of family policies on gender outcomes. Most estimates of the impact of parental leave entitlement on female labor market outcomes range from negligible to weakly positive. The verdict is far more positive for the beneficial impact of spending on early education and childcare.

The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries

Abstract: This paper assesses the current state of evidence on how international trade shapes inequality and poverty through its influence on earnings and employment opportunities. While the focus is mainly on developing countries, in part because we have more evidence in that context, the discussion draws parallels to the empirical evidence from developed countries. The paper also discusses perceptions about international trade in over 40 countries at different levels of development, including perceptions on trade’s overall benefits for the economy, trade’s effect on the livelihood of workers through wages and jobs, and trade’s contribution to inequality. The paper concludes with a survey of evidence on several policies that could mitigate the adverse effects of import competition.