Economic stagnation

About: Economic stagnation is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 1348 publications have been published within this topic receiving 23769 citations.

Natural selection and the origin of economic growth

Abstract: This research develops an evolutionary growth theory that captures the interplay between the evolution of mankind and economic growth since the emergence of the human species. This unified theory encompasses the observed evolution of population, technology and income per capita in the long transition from an epoch of Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth. The theory suggests that prolonged economic stagnation prior to the transition to sustained growth stimulated natural selection that shaped the evolution of the human species, whereas the evolution of the human species was the origin of the take-off from an epoch of stagnation to sustained growth.

An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions

Abstract: When India became independent in 1947 after two centuries of colonial rule, it immediately adopted a firmly democratic political system, with multiple parties, freedom of speech, and extensive political rights The famines of the British era disappeared, and steady economic growth replaced the economic stagnation of the Raj The growth of the Indian economy quickened further over the last three decades and became the second fastest among large economies Despite a recent dip, it is still one of the highest in the world Maintaining rapid as well as environmentally sustainable growth remains an important and achievable goal for India In An Uncertain Glory, two of India's leading economists argue that the country's main problems lie in the lack of attention paid to the essential needs of the people, especially of the poor, and often of women There have been major failures both to foster participatory growth and to make good use of the public resources generated by economic growth to enhance people's living conditions There is also a continued inadequacy of social services such as schooling and medical care as well as of physical services such as safe water, electricity, drainage, transportation, and sanitation In the long run, even the feasibility of high economic growth is threatened by the underdevelopment of social and physical infrastructure and the neglect of human capabilities, in contrast with the Asian approach of simultaneous pursuit of economic growth and human development, as pioneered by Japan, South Korea, and China In a democratic system, which India has great reason to value, addressing these failures requires not only significant policy rethinking by the government, but also a clearer public understanding of the abysmal extent of social and economic deprivations in the country The deep inequalities in Indian society tend to constrict public discussion, confining it largely to the lives and concerns of the relatively affluent Dreze and Sen present a powerful analysis of these deprivations and inequalities as well as the possibility of change through democratic practice

The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980–1998

Abstract: I document in this paper a puzzle thathas not received previous attention in the literature. In 1980–98,median per capita income growth in developing countries was 0.0percent, as compared to 2.5 percent in 1960–79. Yet I documentin this paper that variables that are standard in growth regressions—policieslike financial depth and real overvaluation, and initial conditionslike health, education, fertility, and infrastructure generallyimproved from 1960–79 to 1980–98. Developing countrygrowth should have increased instead of decreased according tothe standard growth regression determinants of growth. The stagnationseems to represent a disappointing outcome to the movement towardsthe ``Washington Consensus'' by developing countries. I speculatethat worldwide factors like the increase in world interest rates,the increased debt burden of developing countries, the growthslowdown in the industrial world, and skill-biased technicalchange may have contributed to the developing countries' stagnation,although I am not able to establish decisive evidence for thesehypotheses. I also document that many growth regressions aremis-specified in a way similar to the Jones (1995) critique thata stationary variable (growth) is being regressed on non-stationaryvariables like policies and initial conditions. It may be thatthe 1960–1979 period was the unusual period for LDC growth,and the 1980–98 stagnation of poor countries representsa return to the historical pattern of divergence between richand poor countries.

The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War

Abstract: In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, home appliances, motor vehicles, air travel, air conditioning, and television transformed households and workplaces. With medical advances, life expectancy between 1870 and 1970 grew from forty-five to seventy-two years. Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth provides an in-depth account of this momentous era. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Gordon challenges the view that economic growth can or will continue unabated, and he demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 can't be repeated. He contends that the nation's productivity growth, which has already slowed to a crawl, will be further held back by the vexing headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government. Gordon warns that the younger generation may be the first in American history that fails to exceed their parents' standard of living, and that rather than depend on the great advances of the past, we must find new solutions to overcome the challenges facing us. A critical voice in the debates over economic stagnation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.