Showing papers on "Empirical research published in 1980"

Macroeconomics and reality

Abstract: Existing strategies for econometric analysis related to macroeconomics are subject to a number of serious objections, some recently formulated, some old. These objections are summarized in this paper, and it is argued that taken together they make it unlikely that macroeconomic models are in fact over identified, as the existing statistical theory usually assumes. The implications of this conclusion are explored, and an example of econometric work in a non-standard style, taking account of the objections to the standard style, is presented. THE STUDY OF THE BUSINESS cycle, fluctuations in aggregate measures of economic activity and prices over periods from one to ten years or so, constitutes or motivates a large part of what we call macroeconomics. Most economists would agree that there are many macroeconomic variables whose cyclical fluctuations are of interest, and would agree further that fluctuations in these series are interrelated. It would seem to follow almost tautologically that statistical models involving large numbers of macroeconomic variables ought to be the arena within which macroeconomic theories confront reality and thereby each other. Instead, though large-scale statistical macroeconomic models exist and are by some criteria successful, a deep vein of skepticism about the value of these models runs through that part of the economics profession not actively engaged in constructing or using them. It is still rare for empirical research in macroeconomics to be planned and executed within the framework of one of the large models. In this lecture I intend to discuss some aspects of this situation, attempting both to offer some explanations and to suggest some means for improvement. I will argue that the style in which their builders construct claims for a connection between these models and reality-the style in which "identification" is achieved for these models-is inappropriate, to the point at which claims for identification in these models cannot be taken seriously. This is a venerable assertion; and there are some good old reasons for believing it;2 but there are also some reasons which have been more recently put forth. After developing the conclusion that the identification claimed for existing large-scale models is incredible, I will discuss what ought to be done in consequence. The line of argument is: large-scale models do perform useful forecasting and policy-analysis functions despite their incredible identification; the restrictions imposed in the usual style of identification are neither essential to constructing a model which can perform these functions nor innocuous; an alternative style of identification is available and practical. Finally we will look at some empirical work based on an alternative style of macroeconometrics. A six-variable dynamic system is estimated without using 1 Research for this paper was supported by NSF Grant Soc-76-02482. Lars Hansen executed the computations. The paper has benefited from comments by many people, especially Thomas J. Sargent

The Social Psychology of Leisure and Recreation

Abstract: PrefaceThis book is a direct outgrowth of two social psychological courses I havenbeen teaching at The University of Iowa since the Fall of 1976. One ofnthese courses is an undergraduate class entitled qIntroduction to SocialnPsychology of Leisure,q and the other is a graduate class bearing the title qAdvanced Theory and Methods of Social Psychology of Leisure.q The contentnand approach taken in these courses are a result of my strong dissatisfactionnwith past attempts to explain leisure and recreation behaviornby sociological approaches using such variables as occupation, income,nand social class. The book is based upon the lectures of both classes andntherefore represents a combination of introductory and advanced material.When starting this project, my goal was to write a book which wouldnbe sufficiently simple to be comprehended by students with little or nonknowledge of social psychology and research, and sufficiently complexnto interest students familiar with the approach and concepts of this area.nTo the degree that this objective is achieved, the book can serve as antextbook for undergraduate and graduate students taking introductoryncourses in the psychological and social psychological aspects of leisurenand recreation. The book can also be used as a supplement to otherntextbooks and journal articles for advanced undergraduate and graduatenstudents. While the book was written with students of recreation in mind, Inbelieve that it is also applicable to courses in related fields such asnpsychology and physical education.In addition to college and university students, the book is intendednfor recreation practitioners. While it contains some material irrelevant tonthe actual delivery of leisure and recreation services, the work presentsnessential information to practitioners. For example, research reviewed onnchildren's play clearly condemns the present practice of furnishing playgroundsnwith standard equipment such as swings and slides. Furthermore,nbased upon theoretical and empirical research, I developed the point thatnLittle League baseball players should be randomly divided into teams before the season, and no recruitment should be allowed. Research reviewednin the chapter on leisure needs and motives shows that socialninteraction is as important as (if not more important than) equipment andnphysical areas where recreational participation takes place. Yet, attentionnis typically centered on the physical aspects of recreational activitiesnwhen delivering leisure services. On the other hand, this is hardly surprisingnin light of the fact that recreation curricula throughout the country arenorganized around such courses as parks and recreation facility management.nTo state it bluntly, it seems to be more important to know wherenvolleyball nets are put after a game than to know how to best facilitatensocial interaction and feelings of competence during the game! It seemsnto be more important to first build recreation centers and programs andnthen worry later about people, rather than vice versa.To give still another example of relevance of this book to practitioners,nconsider the finding (discussed in the chapter on therapeutic recreation)nthat lack of perceived responsibility and control over life has detrimentalneffects on psychological and physical well-being of the institutionalizednaged; it has also been found that these factors increase thenmortality rate among the institutionalized elderly. In view of such drasticnimpact of lack of personal responsibility and control, it is hard for me tonsee how we can permit our students to work as therapeutic recreationnspecialists in nursing homes and other settings, without knowledge ofnthese influencing processes. To stretch the point to the extreme, it may benstated that through the provision of leisure services therapeutic recreationnspecialists are in fact manipulating their patients' perceived responsibilitynand control and thereby affecting the death rate of patients. In addition tonthis area, social psychological research was reviewed on such relevantnand q appliedq topics as drug abuse, vandalism, and littering. In sum,ndespite its theoretical orientation, the book spells out practical implications.nSince practitioners, in most cases, are qsocial psychologistsq whonuse leisure and recreation services as tools of improving people's qualitynof life, they should be familiar with a social psychological analysis of leisurenand recreation behavior.Finally, this book is intended to be of heuristic value for researchers. Inhave not only reviewed past research on each topic as thoroughly as Incould but have pointed out weaknesses of previous studies. In doing so Inhave attempted to be a constructive critic, in that new directions for futurenresearch have been identified in many areas. Past research is frequentlyncriticized, not to minimize the work of individual researchers, but to helpnadvance the field. This work presents new ideas, hypotheses and modelsnwhich should be subjected to rigorous empirical testing. If the book isnable to stimulate theoretical and empirical research, it has achieved onenof its objectives.n n n n n

Social Analyses of Computing: Theoretical Perspectives in Recent Empirical Research

Abstract: Recent empirical studies of computing use in organizations and in public life are examined. The roles of computer technologies in the workplace, in decision making, in altering power relationships, and in influencing personal privacy are examined. In addition, studies that examine the social accountability of computing arrangements to broad publics are reviewed. All studies of computing in social life make important assumptions about the social world in which computing is embedded. Two broad perspectives are contrasted. Systems rationalism, a collection of approaches including management science, managerial rationalism, and the systems approach, is found to be most helpful in stable settings, when there is considerable consensus over important social values. Segmented-institutionalist analyses, which assume social conflict rather than consensus, are particularly powerful as the social world of computing use becomes more dynamic and as a wider variety of groups is involved.

Bringing the Firms Back in: Stratification, Segmentation, and the Organization of Work

Abstract: This essay examines the shift toward "structural" explanations in recent studies of inequality. After reviewing this body of research and some of its shortcomings, we examine its theoretical underpinnings, comparing "structuralist" perspectives on work organization derived from institutional economics and neo-Marxism to more orthodox accounts based on neoclassical and "industrialism" theories. This discussion suggests areas where the different perspectives overlap and diverge. We conclude that work arrangements within the firm and their trend are the focus of most "structural" perspectives on positional stratification; thus, empirical studies grounded at the organizational level are more likely to inform current debates about the "structure of work" than is the growing body of research about structural effects on individual attainment or covariation among industrial/occupational characteristics. Toward that end, an agenda for future research is outlined, focusing on three aspects of work organization: (a) the units which comprise the structure of work and the dimensions underlying economic segmentation; (b) the effects of sectoral differentiation on technical and administrative arrangements within firms; and (c) temporal changes in how enterprises organize production. We provide some illustrations of the kinds of empirical data and research hypotheses required to link research on segmentation and stratification more closely to studies of organizations.

The Social Psychology of Organizing, 2d ed.

Abstract: The book is generally well written, the study is well documented, and the authors have a sound grasp of the fundamentals and of the agencies involved. Still, it is essentially limited to the Canadian experience. The book could have been enhanced if greater efforts had been made to compare findings within a larger bureaucratic theory to results in other governments. Generally, however, the book contributes to the scientific understanding of administration in that it is a solid, well-based, and well-carried out empirical study of the major agencies of an important government. In this sense, although some of the implications may be limited to Canadian institutions, others are certainly available as a basis for formulating theoretical questions which might be applied to institutions in other governments. The appendix contains a thorough description of the research approach, including the questions used. An additional appendix also summarizes information gathered by the research questionnaire fromr the various agencies, valuable for the development of further research efforts. Because of its relatively successful attempts to relate empirical evidence to bureaucratic theory and the depth with which it examines certain agencies, the book is valuable reading for serious students of the bureaucratic phenomenon and of government function in general.

Measuring Organizational Strategies: Some Theoretical and Methodological Problems

Abstract: In this article we address the major theoretical and methodological problems encountered in attempts to arrive at valid and reliable measures of organizational strategy. Our discussion is based on a series of empirical studies of the strategic behaviors of nearly 200 organizations in ten industries. In these studies, four different approaches for measuring strategy have been employed. We describe each approach and discuss its advantages and disadvantages.

Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation

Abstract: Recent theorizing with business cycle models which incorporate features of the Friedman-Phelps natural rate model along with rational expectations lead to the following policy conclusions Anticipated changes in aggregate demand policy will have already been taken into account in economic agents behavior and will thus evoke no further output or employment response Therefore, deterministic feedback policy rules will have no impact on output fluctuations in the economy These policy implications of what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expectations (MRE) hypothesis are of such importance that a wide range of empirical research is needed for its verification or refutation Recent empirical work has tested the "neutrality" implication of the MRE hypothesis that anticipated monetary policy does not affect output or unemployment Although this empirical work has frequently been favorable to the MRE hypothesis, it suffers from several deficiencies that create suspicion about the robustness of the results This paper is an attempt to conduct an econometric investigation of the implications of the MRE hypothesis which does not suffer from these deficiencies The results here strongly reject the neutrality implications of the MRE hypothesis: unanticipated movements in monetary policy are not found to have a larger impact on output and unemployment than anticipated movements This evidence casts doubt on previous evidence that is cited as supporting the view that only unanticipated monetary policy is relevant to the business cycle

Organizational Problem Formulation: An Empirical Study.

Abstract: March 1980, volume 25 This article represents an exploratory study of the process of problem formulation in organizations and of factors that influence the process. The following questions are addressed: (1) how do organizations become aware of the existence of problems and in what kinds of problems is the process important; (2) what process do organizations go through to formulate definitions of problems; (3) what impact do attitudes and demographic characteristics of individual managers have upon the problem-formulation process; and (4) what are some of the major emergent themes that characterize problem formulation in organizations?

The Relationship Between Work and Nonwork Domains: A Review of Empirical Research

Abstract: In this paper we review empirical studies that relate aspects of work life to aspects of life outside of work. Specifically, we examine studies pertaining to two broad issues: (1) the association between social structures of the workplace (i.e., working conditions) and behaviors and attitudes of the worker toward life a way from work; and (2) the association between social structures outside the workplace (i.e., living conditions) and behaviors and attitudes toward work. We conclude that the research reviewed supports the finding that moderate correlations exist between both pairs of variables. However, further research is needed to assess the strength and direction of these relationships, and to answer basic questions about the nature of these relationships.

The Importance of a Market-Value Measurement of Debt in Assessing Leverage

Abstract: Leverage (debt-to-equity ratio) is an important variable in issues concerning the risk of a firm and its securities. Hamada [1969] has demonstrated theoretically the relationship between leverage and systematic risk.' Numerous empirical studies have found that leverage is a significant variable in association tests on risk. Yet there is a glaring disparity between the theoretical results and the empirical tests. The theory is based on market-value measures of debt and leverage. With few exceptions, the empirical tests use book-value (accounting) measures.2 Although these studies have generally found leverage to be highly associated with systematic risk, there has been no means to evaluate the potential effect of using the book-value measurement as a surrogate for the market-value measurement. This study provides direct empirical evidence on the comparability of the book-value and market-value measures of leverage in association tests on systematic risk. The first section of this paper provides a brief presentation of the

Implications of microstructure theory for empirical research in stock price behavior

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of microstructure theory for empirical research on stock price behavior

Implications of Microstructure Theory for Empirical Research on Stock Price Behavior

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of microstructure theory for empirical research on stock price behavior

Planning perceptions and planning results

Abstract: The need for planning in business organizations operating in today's complex environment is widely accepted. Implied is an assumption that planning improves performance. However, the empirical evidence for such a claim is thin. Since planning is an integral part of strategy formulation, the facts to confirm or refute an assumed connection between planning and performance invite attention. Our research focuses on new data from 61 companies which test this linkage and, in addition, reviews the conclusions of prior empirical studies.

The Impact of Advertising on the Price of Consumer Products

Abstract: This article examines one of the most controversial issues in marketing, “Does advertising increase prices?” It reviews arguments and empirical research published on both sides and concludes that a...

A Note on the Measurement of Growth Rates in Cross-National Research

Abstract: A common approach to the explanation of growth rates in crossnational research employs a first-difference (or panel) model. However, when the basic variables employed in such a model are badly skewed, the estimated disturbances are likely to be heteroscedastic. When this happens, the parameter estimates become inefficient, and conventional tests of their statistical significance are biased. This research note briefly reviews the problem, suggests a remedy, and draws on two recent empirical studies of the economic growth of nations to illustrate the substantive importance of the issues involved.

Corporate strategy and the concept of market failure

Abstract: Market failure concepts together with a corporate strategy taxonomy have important implications for the direction of growth of firms and their possible success. This paper discusses the relationship between these concepts and shows how specific types of market failure give rise to specific classes of firms. Arguments are presented why specific types of firms will be more or less successful than others. Empirical research by Rumelt is then cited which supports the themes developed in the paper.

Recent Econometric Modeling of Crime and Punishment: Support for the Deterrence Hypothesis?

Abstract: In this article we review some recent attempts to develop econometric models for assessing the deterrent effect of punishment on crime, as well as analyses carried out to validate these models. The formulation of the basic econometric model considered here is due to Becker, and the detailed specification of the model, along with much of the empirical work reviewed, has been carried out by Ehrlich. We find serious flaws with the Becker- Ehrlich model, with the data used in its empirical implementation, and with Ehrlich's conclusions regarding evidence to support the deterrent effect of punishment on crime. Indeed, we can find no reliable empirical support in the existing economics literature either for or against the deterrence hypothesis.

Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? an Econometric Investigation

Abstract: Recent theorizing with business cycle models which incorporate features of the Friedman-Phelps natural rate model along with rational expectations lead to the following policy conclusions Anticipated changes in aggregate demand policy will have already been taken into account in economic agents behavior and will thus evoke no further output or employment response Therefore, deterministic feedback policy rules will have no impact on output fluctuations in the economy These policy implications of what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expectations (MRE) hypothesis are of such importance that a wide range of empirical research is needed for its verification or refutation Recent empirical work has tested the "neutrality" implication of the MRE hypothesis that anticipated monetary policy does not affect output or unemployment Although this empirical work has frequently been favorable to the MRE hypothesis, it suffers from several deficiencies that create suspicion about the robustness of the results This paper is an attempt to conduct an econometric investigation of the implications of the MRE hypothesis which does not suffer from these deficiencies The results here strongly reject the neutrality implications of the MRE hypothesis: unanticipated movements in monetary policy are not found to have a larger impact on output and unemployment than anticipated movements This evidence casts doubt on previous evidence that is cited as supporting the view that only unanticipated monetary policy is relevant to the business cycle

Teaching Clinical Interviewing in the Health Professions A Review of Empirical Research

Abstract: Empirical research on the teaching of interview skills has consistently shown significant (at p≤.05 level) changes on cognitive tests, affective measures, and observational data for students of various programs in the health professions. Most studies were simply comparisons of stu dents' pretest and posttest scores, with little control over possible confounding factors. Relatively few studies have in cluded direct comparisons of alternative approaches to the teaching of interview skills. These studies are examined in de tail, and trends among them are noted for the design of instructional programs. Also noted are the implications of these studies for future research.

Public Support for the Death Penalty

Abstract: Over the last decade public support for capital punishment has increased. Yet few empirical studies have attempted theoretically to explain this occurrence. Culling rather diverse literature, the s...

Minimum Efficient Size and Seller Concentration: An Empirical Problem

Abstract: THIS paper concerns the empirical relationship between the concentration of sellers in any market and the so-called minimum efficient scale of production (MEP). This relationship forms the basis for what is often termed the technological explanation of concentration. We shall argue that the results of most previous empirical studies in this area may be misleading due to the widespread use of statistical proxy measures for MEP which are themselves better interpreted as measures of concentration. Following an introductory section, which briefly outlines the underlying theory and results of previous studies, section II describes the two widely used proxies for MEP which are the main concern of this paper. We suggest in section III (and Appendix I) that both exhibit the characteristics desirable for a measure of plant concentration. As such, their use in regression analysis 'explaining' measures of firm concentration poses potential identification problems. Furthermore, section IV (and Appendix 2) explain why both proxies will typically involve systematic measuremenit errors which are, themselves, likely to be correlated with concentration. Section V contains a short comparison of the proxies with two alternative MEP estimators, using data from the I 968 UK Census: the results can be interpreted as offering empirical support for the theoretical arguments of the previous sections. In the light of our arguments, we conclude that the influence of technological factors on concentration may well have been overstated by previous empirical research.

The Effect on Sales of Color in Newspaper Advertisements

Abstract: Little empirical research is available on the effects on retail sales of the use of color in newspaper advertising. This study analyzes the results of two experiments conducted by the Long Beach Independent Press-Telegram, and concludes that median sales volume gains of approximately 41% may be realized by using one-color, single-exposure newspaper ads, instead of otherwise identical black-and-white ads, for price-reduced items. This conclusion is supported by statistical analysis of empirical data on actual sales.

Issue area and foreign policy analysis

Abstract: The past decade has witnessed the investment of considerable energy and ingenuity in the refinement of the categories of foreign policy determinants proposed in James Rosenau's famous essay, “Pre-theories and Theories of Foreign Policy.” A sizable literature on foreign policy behavior is now developing, based upon empirical tests of the explanatory power of such variables as size, wealth, degree of political accountability, decision-maker attributes, environmental stimuli, etc. Surprisingly little attention in the field of comparative foreignpolicy, however, has been directed at specifying more precisely and in operational form the concept of issue area—an important component of Rosenau's “pre-theory” and an analytic concept that has received much attention in the public policy field. Moreover, among those scholars who do employ the concept there is little consensus as to the merits of a content based as opposed to a process oriented treatment of issue area or to the implications for empirical research of selecting one approach over the other. This essay seeks: 1) to review the foreign policy literature that attaches major importance to issue area; 2) to assess the merits of alternative treatments of the concept in terms of their contribution to the development of a theory of comparative foreign policy; and 3) to specify the conditions under which different issue area approaches can be used most profitably in comparative foreign policy research.

A Mandated Basis of Interorganizational Relations: The Legal-Political Network

Abstract: This paper seeks to broaden our understanding of interorganizational phenomena by focusing on the mandated basis of interorganizational relations, which is distinguished from the exchange and power-dependency bases. In particular, the paper defines and elaborates upon a subset of mandated interorganizational relations-the legal-political network. Five characteristics of the legal-political subset are identified based upon the author's prior empirical research. Avenues for future research are cited.

Integrating Normative and Descriptive Theories of Information Processing

Abstract: In the accounting research of the past decade, considerable emphasis has been devoted to the study of information production and use by decision makers. Most of this research may be characterized as either normative or descriptive. The normative studies have generally relied on information economics (IE) and have concentrated on modeling the selection and use of information systems by rational information evaluators and decision makers, respectively. The descriptive studies have used various deductive and empirical methods in an attempt to develop a positive theory of information production and use. These are often referred to as the human-information-processing (HIP) studies. The normative and descriptive theories are each concerned with the same phenomena, but from different perspectives. Many of the reasons for apparent divergence in the models are due to the lack of explicit representation in one or both models of phenomena that are important attributes of information-processing behavior. Such attributes include information-processing effort, information load and utilization, and information system informativeness. Notwithstanding some differences in the research goals and methods of the two approaches, there is potential benefit in identifying commonalities in the IE and HIP theories. The benefit to IE would be in making the IE model explicitly account for the information-processing limitations of decision makers. The benefit to HIP theory would be the development of precise characterizations of

Labor Economics, second edition

Abstract: This landmark graduate-level text combines depth and breadth of coverage with recent, cutting-edge work in all the major areas of modern labor economics. Its command of the literature and its coverage of the latest theoretical, methodological, and empirical developments make it also a valuable resource for practicing labor economists. This second edition has been substantially updated and augmented. It incorporates examples drawn from many countries, and it presents empirical methods using contributions that have proved to be milestones in labor economics. The data and codes of these research publications, as well as numerous tables and figures describing the functioning of labor markets, are all available on a dedicated website (www.labor-economics.org), along with slides that can be used as course aids and a discussion forum. This edition devotes more space to the analysis of public policy and the levers available to policy makers, with new chapters on such topics as discrimination, globalization, income redistribution, employment protection, and the minimum wage or labor market programs for the unemployed. Theories are explained on the basis of the simplest possible models, which are in turn related to empirical results. Mathematical appendixes provide a toolkit for understanding the models.

An Empirical Macro Model of an Open Economy under Fixed Exchange Rates: The United Kingdom 1954-1970

Abstract: At present, the student of the macroeconomics of inflation in open economies is confronted with a proliferation of competing, and often mutually inconsistent, models. It is our contention that empirical work is badly needed to bring some discipline to this area. In this paper, therefore, we construct a small-scale model that determines the behaviour of real income, prices, the balance of payments and the money supply in a fixed exchange rate open economy. We then subject the model as a whole to empirical testing against data drawn for the United Kingdom, and draw conclusions from that testing about which aspects of the model do appear to be consistent with the evidence and which do not. Thus we seek to make a threefold contribution. First, we present (yet another) small analytic model; second, we generate evidence about its empirical content; finally, and perhaps most important, we provide an example of how empirical work may be used to discipline and guide the process of model building even at a high degree of aggregation and abstraction.