Endogeneity

About: Endogeneity is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 8138 publications have been published within this topic receiving 259348 citations.

Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes

Abstract: This paper studies the asymptotic properties of instrumental variable (IV) estimates of multivariate cointegrating regressions and allows for deterministic and stochastic regressors as well as quite general deterministic processes in the data-generating mechanism. It is found that IV regressions are consistent even when the instruments are stochastically independent of the regressors. This phenomenon, which contrasts with traditional theory for stationary time series, is a beneficial artifact of spurious regression theory whereby stochastic trends in the instruments ensure their relevance asymptotically. Problems of inference are also addressed and some promising new theoretical results are reported. These involve a class of Wald tests which are modified by semiparametric corrections for serial correlation and for endogeneity. The resulting test statistics which we term fully-modified Wald tests have limiting x2 distributions, thereby removing the obstacles to inference in cointegrated systems that were presented by the nuisance parameter dependencies in earlier work. Some simulation results are reported which seek to explore the sampling behaviour of our suggested procedures. These simulations compare our fully modified (semiparametric) methods with the parametric error-correction methodology that has been extensively used in recent empirical research and with conventional least squares regression. Both the fully-modified and errorcorrection methods work well in finite samples and the sampling performance of each procedure confirms the relevance of asymptotic distribution theory, as distinct from super-consistency results, in discriminating between statistical methods.

Finance and the Sources of Growth

Abstract: Development of the banking sector exerts a large, causal impact on total factor productivity growth, which in turn causes GDP to grow. Whether banking development has a long-run effect on capital growth or private saving remains to be seen. Beck, Levine, and Loayza evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources- total factor productivity growth, physical capital accumulation, and private saving. They use (1) a pure cross-country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and (2) a new panel technique that controls for country-specific effects and endogeneity. They find that: - Banks do exert a large, causal impact on total factor productivity growth, which feeds through to overall GDP growth. - The long-run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the links between the financial system and economic growth.

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Abstract: A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other countries. But international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. This paper develops and investigates the relationship between the two phenomena. Using thirty years of data for twenty industrialized countries, we uncover a strong and striking empirical finding: countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles. It follows that countries are more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union after taking steps toward economic integration than before.

Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants

Abstract: This paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the migration decision. The conditions that determine the nature of the self -selection are derived and depend on economic and political characteristics of the sending and receiving countries. The empirical analysis shows that differences in the U.S. earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills, but from different home countries, are attributable to variations in conditions in the country of origin at the time of migration.