Showing papers on "Exchange rate published in 1997"

Transactions costs and nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates: an empirical investigation

Abstract: Eolquilibrium models of real exchange rate determination in the presence of transactions costs imply a nonlinear adjustment process toward purchasing power parity (PPP). Conventional cointegration tests, Which ignore the effect of transactions costs, may be biased against the long‐run PPP hypothesis. Our results, using both monthly data for the interwar period and annual data spanning two centuries, clearly reject the linear framework in favor of an exponential smooth transition autoregressive process. The systematic pattern in the estimates of the nonlinear models provides strong evidence of mean‐reverting behavior for PPP deviations and helps explain the mixed results of previous studies

Exchange Rate Exposure, Hedging, and the Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives

Abstract: We examine whether firms use foreign currency derivatives for hedging or for speculative purposes. Using the sample of all SP the use of derivatives significantly reduces the exchange-rate risk firms face. We also find that the decision to use derivatives depends on exposure factors (i.e. foreign sales and foreign trade) and on variables largely associated with theories of optimal hedging (i.e., size and R&D expenditures), and that the level of derivatives used depends only on a firm's exposure through foreign sales and trade.

Firm-Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment.

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) theory and empirical studies have generated mixed support for a link between exchange rates and FDI. This paper argues that exchange rate movements may affect acquisition FDI because acquisitions involve firm-specific assets which can generate returns in currencies other than that used for purchase. Using data on Japanese acquisitions in the United States across three-digit SIC industries from 1975 to 1992, maximum-likelihood estimates from discrete dependent variable models support the hypothesis that real dollar depreciations make Japanese acquisitions more likely in U.S. industries, particularly those which more likely have firm-specific assets. Copyright 1997 by American Economic Association.

Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited

Abstract: We propose that analysis of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the law of one price should explicitly take into account the possibility of “commodity points”—thresholds delineating a region of no central tendency among relative prices, possibly due to lack of perfect arbitrage in the presence of transaction costs and uncertainty. More than 80 years ago, Heckscher stressed the importance of such incomplete arbitrage in the empirical application of PPP. We devise an econometric method to identify commodity points. Price adjustment is treated as a nonlinear process, and a threshold autoregression offers a parsimonious specification within which both thresholds and adjustment speeds are estimated by maximum likelihood methods. Our model performs well using post-1980 data, and yields parameter estimates that appear quite reasonable: adjustment outside the thresholds might imply half-lives of price deviations measured in months rather than years, and the thresholds correspond to popular rough estimates as to the order of magnitude of actual transport costs. The estimated commodity points appear to be positively related to objective measures of market segmentation, notably nominal exchange rate volatility.J. Japan Int. Econ.December 1997,11(4), pp. 441–479. Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-3880; and Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208-2600.

Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines

Abstract: Interactions are investigated between exchange rates and stock prices in the emerging financial markets of India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines. The motivation is to establish the causal linkages between leading prices in the foreign exchange market and the stock market; the linkages have implications for the ongoing attempts to develop stock markets in emerging economies simultaneously with a policy shift towards independently floating exchange rates. Some recent econometric techniques are applied to a bivariate vector autoregressive model using monthly observations on the IFC stock price index and the real effective exchange rate over 1985:01–1994:07. The results show unidirectional causality from exchange rates to stock prices in all the sample countries, except the Philippines. This finding has policy implications; it suggests that respective governments should be cautious in their implementation of exchange rate policies, given that such policies have ramifications on their stock markets.

International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns

Abstract: It is widely accepted that, for some industries, competition across countries is" economically important and that this competition is strongly affected by exchange rate changes." This paper explores the validity of this view using weekly stock return data on 320 industry pairs" in six countries from 1975 to 1997. It is found that common shocks to industries across countries" are more important than competitive shocks. Weekly exchange rate shocks explain almost" nothing of the relative performance of industries. Using returns measured over longer horizons the importance of exchange rate shocks increases slightly and the importance of common shocks" to industries increases more substantially. Both industry and exchange rate shocks are more" important for industries that produce goods traded internationally, but the importance of these" shocks is economically small for these industries as well.

The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns

Abstract: Real exchange-rate changes affect bonds differently from stocks. Bonds, having relatively fixed income streams, reflect only an interest-rate effect; stocks reflect a conjunction of interest-rate and cash-flow effects. If exchange rate changes contain information about future interest rates and cash flows over more than one period, then using short horizons may not fully capture exchange exposure, which may explain why prior empirical studies have failed to find an association between stock returns and exchange rates. Using long-horizon returns and long-horizon exchange-rate changes as the authors do provides a clearer picture of exchange exposure. Copyright 1997 by University of Chicago Press.

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises

Abstract: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Abstract: Exchange rates in transition economies undergo early depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. The paper documents and interprets this stylized fact. It provides estimates of the real equilibrium exchange rate based on a sample of 80 countries, and estimates well the dynamics of the real exchange rate in the early transition phase. The results suggest that the continuing real appreciation corresponds to a combination of a return to equilibrium following an initial overshooting, and of real equilibrium appreciation.

Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market

Abstract: This article identifies price leadership patterns in foreign exchange trading, with a focus on central bank intervention as an informational trigger for leadership positioning. Granger causality tests applied to DM/US$ spot rate quotes reveal Deutsche Bank as a price leader up to 60 minutes prior to Bundesbank interventionary reports. By the minus 25-minute mark, interbank quote adjustments become two-way Granger-causal. These results suggest that central bank activity is revealed in stages: first to the price leader, then to competitors, and lastly to the general public. INFORMATION-BASED MICROSTRUCTURE THEORY views the trading process for financial assets as a strategic game involving players who adjust order flows and prices based on asymmetric information regarding the underlying asset's true value. Unfortunately, we can only verify such theories empirically if we have access to high-frequency data. For this reason, empirical studies of information asymmetry have focused predominantly on the equity markets (see Hasbrouck (1991) and Easley, O'Hara, and Srinivas (1993) for recent examples). However, with the recent availability of continuous time spot rate data, it has now become possible to apply tests of microstructure trading theories to the foreign exchange market. This study aims to shed light on strategic foreign exchange trader behavior by focusing on spot rate revisions around an exogenous news event. Specifically, we will show that central bank intervention establishes certain bank traders as price leaders because they are perceived to be better informed about future changes in the exchange rate than some other agents. Charles Goodhart (1988) has asserted the importance of information asymmetries in short-term interactions among foreign exchange trading banks. From interviews with foreign exchange specialists in London, he concluded the following:

The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention

Abstract: One of the great unknowns in international finance is the process by which new information influences exchange rate behavior. Until recently, data constraints have limited our ability to examine this issue. The Olsen and Associates high-frequency spot market data greatly expand the range of testable hypotheses regarding the influence of information. This paper focuses on one important source of information to the foreign exchange markets, the intervention operations of the G-3 central banks. Previous studies using daily and weekly foreign exchange rate data suggest that central bank intervention operations can influence both the level and variance of exchange rates, but little is known about how exactly traders learn about these operations and whether intra-daily market conditions influence their effectiveness. Using high-frequency data, this paper will examine the relationship between the efficacy of intervention operations and the "state of the market" at the moment that the operation is made public to traders.

Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity

Abstract: This paper develops a model that focuses on the interaction of liquidity creation by financial intermediaries with capital flows and exchange rate collapses. The intermediaries` role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crisis. These movements resemble the observed cycle in capital flows: large inflows, crisis and abrupt outflows. The model highlights how adverse productivity and international interest rate shocks may trigger a sudden outflow of capital and an exchange collapse. The initial shock is magnified by the behavior of individual foreign investors linked through their deposits in the intermediaries. The expectation of an eventual exchange rate crisis links investors` behavior even further.

Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Abstract: An econometric methodology for estimating both the equilibrium real exchange rate and the degree of exchange-rate misalignment. Estimating the degree of exchange-rate misalignment remains one of the most challenging empirical problems in an open economy. The basic problem is that the value of the real exchange rate is not observable. Standard theory tells us, however, that the equilibrium real exchange rate is a function of observable macroeconomic variables and that the actual real exchange rate approaches the equilibrium rate over time. A recent strand of the empirical literature exploits these observations to develop a single-equation approach to estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate. Drawing on that earlier work, Baffes, Elbadawi, and O'Connell outline an econometric methodology for estimating both the equilibrium real exchange rate and the degree of exchange-rate misalignment. They illustrate the methodology using annual data from Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso. This paper - a product of the Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate the determinants of the real exchange rate.

Estimating the Probability Distribution of the Future Exchange Rate from Option Prices

Abstract: This article describes a method of extracting the riskneutral probability distribution of future exchange ratesfrom option prices. In foreign exchange markets, interbank option pricing conventions facilitate reliable inferences about riskneutral probability distributions with a small amount of readily available information. T h e risk-neutral probability distribution of the future exchange rate provides investors and market analysts wi th an important tool for gauging market sentiment.

System and method for generating and executing insurance policies for foreign exchange losses

Abstract: A system (200, 300, 400, 410, 420, 430, 440, 450, 460) and method for providing foreign exchange insurance policy (60) that automatically considers factors such as the type of currency (630), exchange rate (640), amount of coverage (660), and period of coverage (650), to determine a premium (730). Users can access the system (200, 300, 400, 410, 420, 430, 440, 450, 460) using credit cards, ATMs (440), banks (460) or other media.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in U.S. Manufacturing Industries

Abstract: This paper studies exchange rate pass-through in U.S. manufacturing industries and its cross-sectional variation. Through an adapted Dixit–Stiglitz model of product differentiation, the paper predicts that pass-through is positively related to the degree of product differentiation and inversely related to the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. Empirical estimates of the pass-through elasticities show that pass-through is incomplete and varies across industries. The degree of pass-through is found to be positively correlated to different proxies for product differentiation, and negatively to a proxy for the elasticity of marginal cost.

The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy

Abstract: In The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy, Cargill, Hutchison, and Takatoshi investigate the formulation and execution of monetary and financial policies in Japan within a broad technical, political, and institutional context. Their emphasis is on the period since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s, and on the effects of policies and institutions in shaping the modern Japanese economy. The authors present basic themes and recent developments, as well as their own research findings. They also review and integrate the large literature in the area. They consider theoretical arguments and empirical evidence for each topic discussed. Topics covered include Japan's low inflation record (despite the central bank's lack of formal independence from the government); politically motivated business cycles and the timing of elections; exchange rate policy and international policy coordination; the historical development of central banking; Japan's "bubble economy" of the 1980s; and the causes, magnitude, and regulatory responses to Japan's banking and financial crisis of the 1990s.

Are Currency Crises Predictable

Abstract: This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.

The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries

Abstract: Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as involving ability to carry out an independent monetary policy (free of fiscal dominance or commitment to another nominal anchor, like the exchange rate), and a quantitative framework linking policy instruments to inflation These prerequisites are largely absent among developing countries, though several of them could with some further institutional changes and an overriding commitment to low inflation make use of an IT framework

The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run

Abstract: This paper surveys the evolution of international capital mobility since the late-nineteenth century. It begins with an overview of empirical evidence on the fall and rise of integration in the global capital market. A discussion of institutional developments focuses on the use of capital controls and the pursuit of domestic macroeconomic policy objectives in the context of changing monetary regimes. A fundamental macroeconomic policy trilemma has forced policy-makers to trade off conflicting goals. The natural implication of the trilemma is that capital mobility has prevailed and expanded under circumstances of widespread political support either for an exchange rate subordinated monetary policy regime (e.g. the gold standard), or for a monetary regime geared mainly towards domestic objectives at the expense of exchange rate stability (e.g. the recent float). Through its effect on popular attitudes towards both the gold standard and the legitimate scope for government macroeconomic intervention, the Great Depression emerges as the key turning point in the recent history of international capital markets.

The economic exposure of u.s. multinational firms

Abstract: In this paper we find that the exchange rate exposure of individual firms increases with the return horizon. Also, the cross-sectional differences in the magnitude of exposure of individual firms are significantly related to firm size but not to the relative portion of foreign sales to total sales. The empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hedging activities exhibit economies of scale, and, consequently, the magnitude of economic exposure is less for larger firms than for smaller firms.

Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia

Abstract: The paper tests the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (rapid economic growth is accompanied by real exchange rate appreciation because of differential productivity growth between tradable and nontradable sectors) using data of the APEC economies. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and, to a lesser extent, Hong Kong and Singapore, were proved to follow the Balassa-Samuelson path. These countries follow a similar industrialization pattern, increasing the weight of high value-added exports. Although Hong Kong and Singapore grew fast, their real exchange rates appreciated only moderately. High productivity growth in service sectors might have been the reason for this. Other fast-growing ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia did not experience real appreciation. Closer examinations of various components of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis revealed that key assumptions are not uniformly supported: There is no uniform pattern for the movement of nontradable prices relative to tradable prices; and tradable prices (measured by common currency) do not show the international arbitrage.

The Phillips curve, the persistence of inflation, and the Lucas critique: evidence from exchange-rate regimes: comment

Abstract: We present evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed-exchange-rate regimes than under gold-based, fixed-exchange-rate regimes. These differences are also reflected in expectations-augmented Phillips curves. We use a two-country macro model, with forward-looking price setters, to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange-rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence. The evidence does not contradict this hypothesis. It supports the hypothesis of forward-looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the Lucas critique. (JEL E31, E42, F33)

The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the foreign exchange exposure of a sample of U.S. and Japanese banking firms. Using daily data, we construct estimates of the exchange rate sensitivity of the equity returns of the U.S. bank holding companies and compare them to those of the Japanese banks. We find that the stock returns of a significant fraction of the U.S. companies move with the exchange rate, while few of the Japanese returns that we observe do so. We next examine more closely the sensitivity of the U.S. firms by linking the U.S. estimates cross-sectionally to accounting-based measures of currency risk. We suggest that the sensitivity estimates can provide a benchmark for assessing the adequacy of existing accounting measures of currency risk. Benchmarked in this way, the reported measures that we examine appear to provide a significant, though only partial, picture of the exchange rate exposure of U.S. banking institutions. The cross-sectional evidence is also consistent with the use of foreign exchange contracts for the purpose of hedging.