Showing papers on "Exchange rate published in 2011"

Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets

Abstract: W e identify a “slope” factor in exchange rates. High interest rate currencies load more on this slope factor than low interest rate currencies. This factor accounts for most of the crosssectional variation in average excess returns between high and low interest rate currencies. A standard, no-arbitrage model of interest rates with two factors—a country-specific factor and a global factor—can replicate these findings, provided there is sufficient heterogeneity in exposure to global or common innovations. We show that our slope factor identifies these common shocks, and we provide empirical evidence that it is related to changes in global equity market volatility. By investing in high interest rate currencies and borrowing in low interest rate currencies, U.S. investors load up on global risk. ( JEL G12, G15, F31) W e show that the large co-movement among exchange rates of different currencies supports a risk-based view of exchange rate determination. In order to do so, we start by identifying a slope factor in exchange rate changes: The exchange rates of high interest rate currencies load positively on this factor, while those of low interest rate currencies load negatively on it. The covariation with this slope factor accounts for most of the spread in average returns between baskets of high and low interest rate currencies—the returns on the currency carry trade. We show that a no-arbitrage model of interest rates and exchange rates with two state variables—country-specific and global risk factors—can match the data, provided there is sufficient heterogeneity in countries’ exposures to the global risk factor. To support this global risk interpretation, we provide evidence that the global risk factor is closely related to changes in volatility of equity markets around the world. We identify this common risk factor in the data by building monthly portfolios of currencies sorted by their forward discounts. The first portfolio contains

High frequency data and volatility in foreign exchange rates

Abstract: Exchange rates, like many other financial time series, display substantial heteroscedasticity. This poses obstacles in detecting trends and changes. Understanding volatility becomes extremely important in studying financial time series. Unfortunately, estimating volatility from low-frequency data, such as daily, weekly, or monthly observations, is very difficult. The recent availability of ultra-high-frequency observations, such as tick-by-tick data, to large financial institutions creates a new possibility for the analysis of volatile time series. This article uses tick-by-tick foreign-exchange rates to explore this new type of data. Unlike low-frequency data, high-frequency data have extremely high negative first-order autocorrelation in their return. In this article, I propose a model that can explain the negative autocorrelation and a volatility estimator for high-frequency data. The daily and hourly volatility estimates of exchange rate show some interesting patterns.

Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform

Abstract: Tracking individual workers across employers and industries after Brazil's trade liberalization in the 1990s shows that foreign import penetration and tariff reductions trigger worker displacements but that neither comparative-advantage industries nor exporters absorb displaced workers for years. There are significantly more displacements and fewer accessions in comparative-advantage industries and at exporters. These findings are robust to instrumenting trade barriers and export status with product demand at Brazil's export destinations and real exchange rate components. Worker effects are important predictors of labor turnover. Trade liberalization is associated with significantly more transitions to informal work status and self-employment. Output is reallocated to more productive firms but, given fast labor-productivity growth, this product reallocation is not accompanied by similar labor reallocation.

Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European (CE) currencies and the EUR/USD foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the CE foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech and, prior to the recent turbulent economic events, Polish currencies, we find no significant spillovers running from the EUR/USD to the CE foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold–Yilmaz volatility spillover index and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.

Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European (CE) currencies and the EUR/USD foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the CE foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech and, prior to the recent turbulent economic events, Polish currencies, we find no significant spillovers running from the EUR/USD to the CE foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold Yilmaz volatility spillover index and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.

Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination

Abstract: Exchange rates among large economies have fluctuated dramatically over the past 30 years. The dollar/euro exchange rate has experienced swings of greater than 60 percent. Even the Canadian dollar/US dollar exchange rate has risen and fallen by more than 35 percent in the past decade, but inflation rates in these countries have differed by only a percentage point or two per year. Should these exchange rate movements be a concern for policymakers? Or would it not be better for policymak ers to focus on output and inflation and let a freely floating exchange rate settle at a market determined level? Empirical evidence points to the possibility of "local-currency pricing" (LCP) or "pricing to market."1 Exporting firms may price discriminate among markets, and/ or set prices in the buyers' currencies. A currency could be overvalued if consumer prices are generally higher at home than abroad when compared in a common cur rency, or undervalued if these prices are lower at home.2 Currency misalignments can be very large even in advanced economies. In a simple, familiar framework, this paper draws out the implications for monetary policy when currency misalignments are possible. Currency misalignments lead to inefficient allocations for reasons that are analogous to the problems with inflation in a world of staggered price setting. When there are currency misalignments, households in the Home and Foreign countries may pay different prices for the identical good. A basic tenet of economics is that violations of the law of one price are inefficient—if the good's marginal cost is the same irrespective of where the good is sold, it is not efficient for the good to sell at different prices. We find that these violations lead to a reduction in world welfare and that optimal monetary policy trades off targeting these misalignments with inflation and output goals. In our model, because there are no transportation costs or distribution costs, any deviation from the law of one price would be inefficient. More generally, if those costs were to be included, then pricing

How do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR Approach

Abstract: We study how credit supply shocks in the US, the euro area and Japan are transmitted to other economies. We use the recently-developed GVAR approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983-2009. We experiment with inter-country links that distinguish bilateral trade, portfolio investment, foreign direct investment and banking exposures, as well as asset-side vs. liability-side financial channels. Capturing both bilateral trade and inward foreign direct investment or outward banking claim exposures in a GVAR fits the data better than using trade weights only. We use sign restrictions on the short-run impulse responses to financial shocks that have the effect of reducing credit supply to the private sector. We find that negative US credit supply shocks have stronger negative effects on domestic and foreign GDP, compared to credit supply shocks from the euro area and Japan. Domestic and foreign credit and equity markets respond clearly to the credit supply shocks. Exchange rate responses are consistent with a "flight to quality" to the US dollar. The UK, another international financial centre, is also responsive to the shocks. These results are robust to the exclusion of the 2007-09 crisis episode from the sample.

Risks For The Long Run And The Real Exchange Rate

Abstract: We propose an equilibrium model that can explain a wide range of international finance puzzles, including the high correlation of international stock markets, despite the lack of correlation of fundamentals. We conduct an empirical analysis of our model, which combines cross-country-correlated long-run risk with Epstein and Zin preferences, using U.S. and U.K. data, and show that it successfully reconciles international prices and quantities, thereby solving the international equity premium puzzle. These results provide evidence suggesting a link between common long-run growth perspectives and exchange rate movements.

International Prices, Costs, and Markup Differences

Abstract: Relative cross-border retail prices, in a common currency, comove closely with the nominal exchange rate. Using product-level prices and wholesale costs from a grocery chain operating in the United States and Canada, we decompose this variation into relative costs and markup components. The high correlation of nominal and real exchange rates is driven mainly by changes in relative costs. National borders segment markets. Retail prices respond to changes in costs in neighboring stores within the same country but not across the border. Prices have a median discontinuous change of 24 percent at the border and 0 percent at state boundaries. (JEL F31, L11, L81)

How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?

Abstract: We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.

Fiscal Policy and the Current Account

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, drawing on a large sample of advanced, emerging, and low-income economies and using a variety of statistical methods: panel regressions, an analysis of large fiscal policy and current account changes, and panel vector autoregressions (VAR). On average, across estimation methods, a strengthening in the fiscal balance by 1 percentage point of GDP is associated with a current account improvement of about 0.3 percentage point of GDP. With our preferred estimation method (quarterly structural VAR using government consumption to identify fiscal policy shocks), the relationship is stronger, in the 0.3–0.5 range. The association is stronger in emerging markets and low-income countries; in economies that are more open to trade; and when the economy is somewhat overheated to begin with. The effect is, however, notably weaker during episodes of large fiscal policy and current account changes, suggesting that fiscal policy may have a more limited role in correcting large external imbalances.

Modelli Di Crescita Limitata Dalla Bilancia Dei Pagamenti: Storia E Panoramica (Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview)

Abstract: Thirlwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements. The paper surveys developments of the model since then, allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements, and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and an extensive list of papers that have examined the model is presented.

Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)

Abstract: Usually, gold and the Dollar are negatively related; when the Dollar price of gold increases, the Dollar depreciates against other currencies. This is intuitively puzzling because it seems to suggest that gold prices are associated with appreciation in other currencies. Why should the Dollar be different? We show here that there is actually no puzzle. The price of gold can be associated with currency depreciation in every country. The Dollar price of gold can be related to Dollar depreciation and the Euro (Pound, Yen) price of gold can be related to Euro (Pound, Yen) depreciation. Indeed, this is usually the case empirically.

Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era: Fixed, Floating, and Flaky

Abstract: This paper provides a selective survey of the incidence, causes, and consequences of a country's choice of its exchange rate regime. I begin with a critical review of Michael Klein and Jay C. Shambaugh's (2010) book Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era, and then proceed to provide an alternative overview of what the economics profession knows and needs to know about exchange rate regimes. While a fixed exchange rate with capital mobility is a well-defined monetary regime, floating is not; thus, it is unclear whether it is theoretically sensible to compare countries across exchange rate regimes. This comparison is quite difficult to make empirically. It is often hard to figure out what the exchange rate regime of a country is in practice, since there are multiple conflicting regime classifications. More importantly, similar countries choose radically different exchange rate regimes without substantive consequences for macroeconomic outcomes like output growth and inflation. That is, the profession knows surprisingly little about either the causes or consequences of national choices of exchange rate regimes. But since the consequences of these choices are small, understanding their causes is of only academic interest. (JEL E52, F33)

Getting Beyond Carry Trade: What Makes a Safe Haven Currency?

Abstract: There is already a substantial literature documenting the fact that low yield currencies typically appreciate during times of global financial stress and behave as safe havens. The main objective of this paper is to find out what the fundamentals of safe haven currencies are. We analyse a large panel of 52 currencies in advanced and emerging countries over almost 25 years of data. We find that only a few factors are robustly associated to a safe haven status, most notably the net foreign asset position, an indicator of external vulnerability, and to a lesser extent the absolute size of the stock market, an indicator of market size and development. The interest rate spread against the US is significant only for advanced countries, whose currencies are subject to carry trade. More generally, we find that it is hard to predict what currencies would do when global risk aversion is high, as estimates are imprecise and often not stable or robust. This suggests caution in over-interpreting exchange rate movements during financial crises.

Intermediaries in International Trade: direct versus indirect modes of export

Abstract: This paper examines the factors that give rise to intermediaries in exporting and explores the implications for trade volumes. Recent research emphasizes the presence of high market-specific fixed costs of exporting in explaining the existence of export intermediaries such as wholesalers. Results here confirm the importance of market fixed costs but also highlight the role of both the general contracting environment and product-specific factors in the choice of indirect exporting. These underlying differences between direct and intermediary exporters have important consequences for trade flows. The ability of export intermediaries to overcome country and product fixed costs means that they can more easily respond along the extensive margin to external shocks. Intermediaries and direct exporters are found to have different responses to exchange rate fluctuations both in terms of the total value of shipments and the number of products exported as well as in terms of prices and quantities.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Major Countries

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effect of exchange rate variations on prices over the short- and long-run To this end, we estimate a mark-up model for prices using a novel and simple asymmetric cointegrating model, with positive and negative partial sum decomposition of the nominal exchange rates Our results show that prices react differently to appreciations and depreciations over the long-run, an effect that was previously ignored in the literature In particular, we provide evidence that depreciations are passed through prices more than appreciations, a result that might suggest weak competition structures This result has important implications for the proper conduct of monetary policy

Determinants of Bank Profitability in Ukraine

Abstract: The Ukrainian banking system exhibits low profitability compared to other transitional countries in the region. This study examines the determinants of bank profitability in Ukraine. It relates bank specific, industry specific and macroeconomic indicators to the overall profitability of Ukrainian banks. The study uses a panel of individual banks’ financial statements from 2005 to 2009. According to the empirical results, Ukrainian banks suffer from low quality of loans and do not manage to extract considerable profits from the growing volume of deposits. Despite low profits from the core banking activities Ukrainian banks manage benefit from exchange rate depreciation. This study finds evidence for the difference in profitability patterns of banks with foreign capital versus exclusively domestically owned banks. The results also indicate that there is room for consolidation of Ukrainian banks in order to benefit from economies of scale.