Showing papers on "Exchange rate published in 2018"

Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility

Abstract: This article examines the nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying influence between crude oil prices and the US dollar (USD) exchange rate using the Hiemstra and Jones (HP) test, the Diks and Panchenko (DP) test and the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model. By applying the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm and the DCC-GARCH model, the effects of structural breaks in volatility of the two markets are also investigated. The empirical analysis indicates that, first, crude oil prices are the nonlinear Granger-cause of the USD exchange rate, but not vice versa. Second, the USD exchange rate exerts a stronger and more stable negative influence on crude oil prices in the short term, and the influence gradually weakens after 2012. Finally, ignoring structural breaks can increase the negative volatility correlation between the oil and USD exchange rate markets, which is particularly remarkable during the financial crisis.

Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL

Abstract: This study scrutinized the asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan using [Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) Modelling asymme...

The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates

Abstract: Sorting countries by their dollar currency betas produces a novel cross section of average currency excess returns. A slope factor (long in high beta currencies and short in low beta currencies) accounts for this cross section of currency risk premia. This slope factor is orthogonal to the high-minus-low carry trade factor built from portfolios of countries sorted by their interest rates. The two high-minus-low risk factors account for 18% to 80% of the monthly exchange rate movements. The two risk factors suggest that stochastic discount factors in complete markets' models should feature at least two global shocks to describe exchange rates.

Export Destinations and Input Prices

Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which the destination of exports matters for the input prices paid by firms, using detailed customs and firm-product-level data from Portugal. The authors use exchange rate movements as a source of variation in export destinations and find that exporting to richer countries leads firms to charge more for outputs and pay higher prices for inputs, other things equal. The results are supportive of the hypothesis that an exogenous increase in average destination income leads firms to raise the average quality of goods they produce and to purchase higher-quality inputs.

The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier

Abstract: We show how real and financial frictions amplify the impact of uncertainty shocks. We start by building a model with real frictions, and show how adding financial frictions roughly doubles the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. The reason is higher uncertainty alongside financial frictions induces the standard negative real-options effects on the demand for capital and labor, but also leads firms to hoard cash against future shocks, further reducing investment and hiring. We then test the model using a panel of US firms and a novel instrumentation strategy for uncertainty exploiting differential firm exposure to exchange rate and factor price volatility. Consistent with the model we find that higher uncertainty reduces firms' investment, hiring, while increasing their cash holdings and cutting their dividend payouts, particularly for financially constrained firms. This highlights why in periods with greater financial frictions--like during the global-financial-crisis--uncertainty can be particularly damaging.

Fiscal Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate

Abstract: We estimate the real exchange rate impact of shocks to government spending for a panel of member countries of the euro area Our key finding is that the impact differs across different types of government spending, with shocks to public investment generating larger and more persistent real appreciation than shocks to government consumption Within the latter category, we also show that the impact of shocks to the wage component of government consumption is more persistent than that of shocks to the non-wage component Finally, we highlight the different exchange rate responses between this group and a group of countries with floating exchange rates

A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price, Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

Abstract: This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ w...

Macroeconomic Default Modeling and Stress Testing

Abstract: This paper applies a macroeconomic-based model for estimating probabilities of default. The first part of the paper focuses on the relation between macroeconomic variables and the default behavior of Dutch firms. A convincing relationship with GDP growth and oil price and, to a lesser extent, the interest and exchange rate exists. The second part of the paper assesses the default behavior based on a stress scenario of two consecutive quarters of zero GDP growth as required by the Basel II framework. It can be concluded that a stress-test scenario covering two quarters of zero GDP growth does not influence the default rate significantly and thus does not seem to be very severe.

Liquidity and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract: We find strong empirical evidence that economic fundamentals can well account for nominal exchange rate movements. The important innovation is that we include the liquidity yield on government bonds as an explanatory variable. We find impressive evidence that changes in the liquidity yield are significant in explaining exchange rate changes for all of the G10 countries. Moreover, after controlling for liquidity yields, traditional determinants of exchange rates – adjustment toward purchasing power parity and monetary shocks – are also found to be economically and statistically significant. We show how these relationships arise out of a canonical two-country New Keynesian model with liquidity returns. Additionally, we find a role for sovereign default risk and currency swap market frictions.

Volatility Spillover Effect between Stock and Exchange Rate in Oil Exporting Countries

Abstract: This paper proposes the volatility spillover effect between stock and foreign exchange markets in both directions in oil exporting countries – Russia and Brazil. The data sample consists of daily observations. The method is based on FIGARCH model of the long memory. For emerging markets, volatility spillover is observed mainly in one direction: from the currency market to stock market. Calculations show that long memory is present in the dynamics of volatility, when models take into account structural breaks and frictions. We develop a model to predict the impact of oil prices on stock market indices for Russia, Brazil. The volatility spillover effect is observed in one direction: from the exchange rate to stock market. Calculations show that long memory is present in the dynamics of volatility, when models take into account structural breaks and frictions. This paper focuses on new method for forecasting of volatility (taking into account the structural breaks) on the base of FIGARCH model. The financial markets became more integrated after the World Economic Crisis of 2008-2009. The paper shows that volatility can be predicted using the FIGARCH model if the structural breaks are incorporated in the model. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of economic forecasting on the base of long memory models.

Macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance: A study of selected quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationship between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance of quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigates the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, while the firm characteristics were size, leverage and liquidity. The dependent variable financial performance is measured as return on assets (ROA). Design/methodology/approach The study used the ex post facto research design. The population comprised all quoted manufacturing firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The sample was restricted to companies in the consumer goods sector, selected using non-probability sampling method. The study used multiple linear regression as the method of validating the hypotheses. Findings The study finds no significant effect for interest rate and exchange rate, but a significant effect for inflation rate and GDP growth rate on ROA. Second, the firm characteristics showed that firm size, leverage and liquidity were significant. Practical implications The study has implications for regulators and policy makers in formulating policy decisions. In addition, managers may better understand the interplay between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and profitability of firms. Originality/value Few studies have addressed the interplay of macroeconomic factors and firm characteristics in determining the profitability of manufacturing firms in the country and developing countries in general.

More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

Abstract: I study how online competition, with its algorithmic pricing technologies and the transparency of the Internet, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that online competition has raised both the frequency of price changes and the degree of uniform pricing across locations in the U.S. over the past 10 years. These changes make retail prices more sensitive to aggregate ``nationwide" shocks, increasing the pass-through of both gas prices and nominal exchange rate fluctuations.

Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach

Abstract: In the financial as well as managerial decision making process, forecasting is a crucial element (Majhi et al, 2009) Most research have been made on forecasting of financial and economic variables through the help of researchers in the last decades using series of fundamental and technical approaches yielding different results (Musa et al, 2014) The theory of forecasting exchange rate has been in existence for many centuries where different models yield different forecasting results either in the sample or out of sample (Onasanya & Adeniji, 2013) A country’s exchange rate is one of the most closely monitored indicators, as fluctuations in exchange rates can have far reaching economic consequences (Ribeiro, 2016) The recent financial turmoil all over the world demonstrates the urgency of perfect information of the exchange rates (Shim, 2000) Understanding the forecasting of exchange rate behaviour is important to monetary policy (Simwaka, 2007) One of the important variables that have considerable influence on other socio – economic variables in Nigeria is the Nigerian naira / dollar exchange rate (Ismail, 2009) Owing to the critical role played by exchange rate dynamics in international trade and overall economic performance of all countries in general, the need for a good forecasting tool cannot be ruled out In this study, we model and forecast the Naira / USD exchange rates over the period 1960 – 2017 Our diagnostic tests such as the ADF test indicate that EXC time series data is I (1) Based on the minimum AIC value, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model as the optimal model The ADF test further indicates that the residuals of the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model are stationary and thus bear the characteristics of a white noise process It is also important to note that our forecast evaluation statistics, namely ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE, MAPE and Theil’s U absolutely show that our forecast accuracy is quite good Our forecast actually indicates that the Naira will continue to depreciate The main policy implication from this study is that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), should devalue the Naira in order to not only restore exchange rate stability but also encourage local manufacturing and promote foreign capital inflows

Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth. An empirical investigation based on a sample of 45 developing and emerging countries over the period of 1985~2015 is conducted using the difference and system generalized method of moments estimators. Findings suggest that the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based measure of nominal and real exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on economic growth. Also, the effect of exchange rate volatility depends on the exchange rate regimes and financial openness, that is, volatility is more harmful when countries adopt flexible exchange rate regimes and financial openness.

How Does Internet Finance Influence the Interest Rate? Evidence from Chinese Financial Markets

Abstract: It is gradually accepted that the Internet finance has increased the accessibility of financial market, and caused an important impact on the financial market. Considering the quick development of the Internet finance in China, we propose theoretical hypotheses to explain the influencing path of Internet finance on market interest rate. Then by using the data from May 2013 to November 2016, we apply UCINET diagram and vector autoregression model and variance decomposition methods to verify the theoretical hypotheses. The empirical results show the Internet finance lead to the change of market interest rate mainly through reference point effect of P2P interest rate. Although the Internet finance affects the social monetization and exchange rate, this impact cannot be passed to interest rate through the medium variables of social monetization and exchange rate.

Time–frequency causality between stock prices and exchange rates: Further evidences from cointegration and wavelet analysis

Abstract: The current study investigates the relationship between stock prices and exchange rate by using wavelets approach and more focused the continuous, power spectrum, cross and coherence wavelet. The result of Bayer and Hanck (2013) and Gregory and Hansen (1996) confirm the presence of long-run association between stock price and exchange rate in Pakistan. The results of wavelet coherence reveal the dominance of SP during 2005–2006 and 2011–2012 in the period of 8–16 and 16–32 weeks cycle in approximately all the exchange rates against Pakistani rupees. For almost the entire studied period in long scale, the study evidences the strong coherence between both the series. The most interesting part of this coherence is the existence of bidirectional causality in the long timescale. The arrows in this long region are pointing both left up and left down. This suggests that during the time period, our variables are exhibiting out phase relationship with mutually leading and lagging the market. These results are in contrast with many earlier studies of Pakistan.

Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy

Abstract: A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. We contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country model characterized by financial frictions, alongside a number of key features, like capital accumulation, non-traded goods and foreign-currency debt denomination. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks (e.g. PPI stability) as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. We show that the two-country perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting (nearly optimal in our model if credit frictions are absent) becomes excessively procyclical in response to productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. The related welfare losses are non-negligible, especially if financial imperfections interact with nontradable production. Second, (asymmetric) foreign currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. In particular, the larger the variance of domestic productivity shocks relative to foreign, the closer the PPI-stability policy is to the optimal policy and the farther is the currency union case. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Finally, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement.

Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries

Abstract: This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria. Three different kinds of oil price data were applied in this study: the actual spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price, and an average of the Brent, WTI, and Dubai oil price. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dynamic panels were used to estimate the short- and long-term impacts. Also, we partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found that both the positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when the oil prices dropped. We also found that the money supply, the exchange rate, and the gross domestic product (GDP) are positively related to inflation, while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policy-makers should be cautious when formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices, as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of a contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate. Lastly, we suggest that the government should encourage domestic food production, both in quantity and quality, to reduce inflation.

Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide

Abstract: While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then, flows have continued to swing wildly, leaving emerging market policy makers wondering whether they can put in place policies during the inflow phase that will soften the blow when flows subsequently recede. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. The authors, all IMF experts, explain that, in the spirit of liberalization and deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s, many emerging market governments eliminated capital inflow controls along with outflow controls. By 2012, however, capital inflow controls were again acknowledged as legitimate policy tools. Focusing on the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flows, the authors combine theoretical and empirical analysis to consider the interaction between monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential, and capital control policies to mitigate these risks. They examine the effectiveness of various policy tools, discuss the practical considerations and multilateral implications of their use, and provide concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows.