Exchange rate

About: Exchange rate is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 47255 publications have been published within this topic receiving 944563 citations. The topic is also known as: foreign-exchange rate & forex rate.

International Migration, Remittances, and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks

Abstract: Millions of households in developing countries receive financial support from family members working overseas How do migrant earnings affect origin-household investments? This paper examines Philippine households%u2019 responses to overseas members%u2019 economic shocks Overseas Filipinos work in dozens of foreign countries, which experienced sudden (and heterogeneous) changes in exchange rates due to the 1997 Asian financial crisis Appreciation of a migrant%u2019s currency against the Philippine peso leads to increases in household remittances received from overseas The estimated elasticity of Philippine-peso remittances with respect to the Philippine/foreign exchange rate is 060 These positive income shocks lead to enhanced human capital accumulation and entrepreneurship in migrants%u2019 origin households Child schooling and educational expenditure rise, while child labor falls In the area of entrepreneurship, households raise hours worked in self-employment, and become more likely to start relatively capital-intensive household enterprises

Was It Real? The Exchange Rate‐Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating‐Rate Period

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the United States, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant, we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates. We consider both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. One hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances (such as productivity shocks) may be a major source of exchange rate volatility. THIS PAPER INVESTIGATES THE empirical relationship between major currency real exchange rates and real interest rates over the modern (post-March 1973) flexible rate experience. The exchange rates examined here include the dollar/ mark, dollar/yen, and dollar/pound rates. Our two major findings are as follows. First, the data do not indicate a strong correspondence between real interest rate differentials (short-term or long-term) and real exchange rates. This finding appears to conflict with the predictions of most monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination, though the conflict can be substantially reconciled if aggregate disturbances are primarily real in nature (i.e., changes in productivity, tastes, etc.). It is true that in many cases the sign of the estimated exchange rate-interest rate differential relationship is consistent with the possible predominance of financial market disturbances, but the relationship is not stable enough to be statistically significant. Second, although one does find some evidence of a unit root in both real exchange rates and long-term (but not shortterm) real interest differentials, these two series do not appear to be linearly cointegrated. Hence, the nonstationarity (or near nonstationarity) in the two series cannot be attributed to the same factor. In Section I, we briefly describe a class of small-scale monetary models of exchange rate determination. The importance of this class of models for empirical work derives from its strong predictions about how the exchange rate will move

An essay on the revived bretton woods system

Abstract: The economic emergence of a fixed exchange rate periphery in Asia has reestablished the United States as the center country in the Bretton Woods international monetary system. We argue that the normal evolution of the international monetary system involves the emergence of a periphery for which the development strategy is export-led growth supported by undervalued exchange rates, capital controls and official capital outflows in the form of accumulation of reserve asset claims on the center country. The success of this strategy in fostering economic growth allows the periphery to graduate to the center. Financial liberalization, in turn, requires floating exchange rates among the center countries. But there is a line of countries waiting to follow the Europe of the 1950s/60s and Asia today sufficient to keep the system intact for the foreseeable future.

Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: Because unanticipated monetary expansion leads to real exchange rate depreciation, and because the harms of real depreciation are greater in more open economies, the benefits of unanticipated expansion are decreasing in the degree of openness. Models in which the absence of precommitment in monetary policy leads to excessive inflation therefore predict lower average inflation in more open economies. This paper tests this prediction using cross-country data. The data show a strong and robust negative link between openness and inflation.

Openness and inflation: theory and evidence

Abstract: This paper points out and tests a straight forward but previously unnoticed prediction of models in which the absence of precommitment in monetary policy leads to excessive inflation. Because unanticipated monetary expansion leads to real exchange rate depreciation, and because the harms of real depreciation are greater in more open economies, the benefits of surprise expansion are decreasing in the degree of openness. Thus, under discretionary policy-making, money growth and inflation will be lower in more open economies. After presenting a simple theoretical model demonstrating this prediction of the theory, the paper examines the link between openness and inflation using cross-country data. The data reveal a strong negative link between openness and inflation.