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Exchange rate

About: Exchange rate is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 47255 publications have been published within this topic receiving 944563 citations. The topic is also known as: foreign-exchange rate & forex rate.


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Book
01 Jan 1989
TL;DR: Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment as discussed by the authors provides a unified theoretical and empirical investigation of exchange rate policy and performance in scores of developing countries and discusses their effect on net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation, analyzed both in time series and through cross country comparisons.
Abstract: "Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment "provides a unified theoretical and empirical investigation of exchange rate policy and performance in scores of developing countries. It develops a theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium real exchange rates, takes up the question of why devaluations are the most controversial policy measures in poorer nations, and discusses what determines their success or failure.In a lucid fashion, Edwards organizes vast amounts of data on exchange rates - both real and nominal - and discusses their effect on net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation, analyzed both in time series and through cross country comparisons. Edwards's investigation singles out 39 major devaluation episodes for before and after comparative analyses while simultaneously isolating the separate effects of other important explanatory variables, such as bank credit expansion and changes in the terms of trade.The first part of the book focuses on theoretical models of devaluation and real exchange rate behavior in less developed countries. Special attention is paid to intertemporal channels in the transmission of disturbances. The second part uses a large cross country data set to analyze the way the real exchange rate has behaved in these nations. The data are also used to test the implications of several theories of real exchange rate determination. The third part analyzes actual devaluation experiences between 1962 and 1982. These chapters examine the events leading to a balance of payments crisis and to a devaluation, exploring the relation between macroeconomic disequilibrium, and the imposition of trade and exchange controls. They also investigate the effect of nominal devaluation on key variables such as the balance of payments, the current account, the real exchange rate, real output real wages, and income distribution.Sebastian Edwards is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Los Angeles and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

783 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: This paper studied the relationship among exchange rates, balance sheets, and macroeconomic outcomes in a small open economy and showed that the impact of an adverse foreign shock can be strongly magnified by the balance sheet effect of the associated real devaluation.
Abstract: We study the relation among exchange rates, balance sheets, and macroeconomic outcomes in a small open economy. Because liabilities are dollarized,' a real devaluation has detrimental effects on entreprenurial net worth, which in turn constrains investment due to financial frictions. But there is an offsetting effect, int hat devaluation expands home output and the return to domestic investment, which are also components of net worth. We show that the impact of an adverse foreign shock can be strongly magnified by the balance sheet effect of the associated real devaluation. But the fall in output employment, and investment is stronger under fixed exchange rates than under flexible rates. Hence the conventional wisdom, that flexible exchange rates are better absorbers of real foreign shocks than are fixed rates, holds in spite of potentially large balance sheet effects.

780 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors classify countries as pegged or non-pegged and examine whether a pegged country must follow the interest rate changes in the base country more than nonpegs.
Abstract: To investigate how a fixed exchange rate affects monetary policy, this paper classifies countries as pegged or nonpegged and examines whether a pegged country must follow the interest rate changes in the base country. Despite recent research which hints that all countries, not just pegged countries, lack monetary freedom, the evidence shows that pegs follow base country interest rates more than nonpegs. This study uses actual behavior, not declared status, for regime classification; expands the sample including base currencies other than the dollar; examines the impact of capital controls, as well as other control variables; considers the time series properties of the data carefully; and uses cointegration and other levels-relationship analysis to provide additional insights.

754 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements) was used to characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Euro.
Abstract: Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises (that is, divergences between expectations and realizations, or 'news') produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery.

749 citations

Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: The analysis of exchange rate behavior has been a perennial topic in international monetary economics as discussed by the authors, and one strand of this literature relates to the explanation of observed movements in nominal and real exchange rates in terms of relevant economic variables, while another strand focuses on assessing exchange rates relative to economic fundamentals and coming to a judgement as to whether a particular exchange rate is misaligned, i.e., over- or undervalued.
Abstract: The analysis of exchange rate behavior has been a perennial topic in international monetary economics. One strand of this literature relates to the explanation of observed movements in nominal and real exchange rates in terms of relevant economic variables. A different strand focuses on assessing exchange rates relative to economic fundamentals and coming to a judgement as to whether a particular exchange rate is misaligned, i.e., over- or undervalued. One approach taken in this latter strand of research that has been developed by Williamson (1994) involves the calculation of what is called the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER). In this approach the equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the real effective exchange rate that is consistent with macroeconomic balance, which is generally interpreted as when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and a current account that is sustainable, i.e., that reflects underlying and desired net capital flows (external balance). This exchange rate concept is denoted as “fundamental” in that it abstracts from short-term factors and emphasizes instead determinants that are important over the medium term. An assessment of a country’s exchange rate can be made by comparing its current level with the calculated FEER

742 citations


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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20242
2023899
20222,022
20211,295
20201,609
20191,767