Topic
Exchange rate
About: Exchange rate is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 47255 publications have been published within this topic receiving 944563 citations. The topic is also known as: foreign-exchange rate & forex rate.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
More filters
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early warning system, which involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis.
Abstract: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
333 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the demand for real cash balances deduced from an underlying portfolio model of the financial market is shown to depend upon domestic variables and foreign monetary developments, and the conclusion that domestic monetary policy is fairly ineffective and domestic financial markets are highly vulnerable to changes in foreign financial and monetary developments need to be modified in light of the results presented in this paper.
332 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review some of the evidence and discuss the economic magnitude of this predictability and analyze the profitability of these trading rules in connection with central bank activity using intervention data from the Federal Reserve.
332 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present empirical evidence that the size of the bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange market is positively related to the underlying exchange rate uncertainty, based on an ordered probit analysis that captures discreteness in the spread distribution, with the uncertainty of the spot exchange rate being quantified through a GARCH type model.
332 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand and presented a formal model and empirical evidence.
332 citations