Factor price

Abstract: This paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the daily volume of trading on the speculative markets. Our work extends the theory of speculative markets in two ways. First, we derive from economic theory the joint probability distribution of the price change and the trading volume over any interval of time within the trading day. And second, we determine how this joint distribution changes as more traders enter (or exit from) the market. The model's parameters are estimated by FIML using daily data from the 90-day T-bills futures market. The results of the estimation can reconcile a conflict between the price variability-volume relationship for this market and the relationship obtained by previous investigators for other speculative markets. THIS PAPER CONCERNS the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the volume of trading on speculative markets. Previous empirical studies [2, 3, 6, 12, 14, 16] of both futures and equity markets always find a positive association between price variability (as measured by the squared price change Ap2) and the trading volume.2 There are two explanations for the relationship. Clark's [2] explanation, which is secondary to his effort to explain why the probability distribution of the daily price change is leptokurtic, emphasizes randomness in the number of within-day transactions. In Clark's model the daily price change is the sum of a random number of within-day price changes. The variance of the daily price change is thus a random variable with a mean proportional to the mean number of daily transactions. Clark argues that the trading volume is related positively to the number of within-day transactions, and so the trading volume is related positively to the variability of the price change. The second explanation is due to Epps and Epps [6]. Their model examines the mechanics of within-day trading. The change in the market price on each within-day transaction or market clearing is the average of the changes in all of the traders' reservation prices. Epps and Epps assume there is a positive relationship between the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices and the absolute value of the change in the market price. That is, an increase in the extent to which traders disagree is associated with a larger absolute price change. The price variability-volume relationship arises, then, because the volume of trading is positively related to the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices.

Abstract: For many problems in macroeconomics, development economics, labor economics, and international trade, whether technical change is biased towards particular factors is of central importance. This paper develops a simple framework to analyze the forces that shape these biases. There are two major forces affecting equilibrium bias: the price effect and the market size effect. While the former encourages innovations directed at scarce factors, the latter leads to technical change favoring abundant factors. The elasticity of substitution between different factors regulates how powerful these effects are, and this has implications about how technical change and factor prices respond to changes in relative supplies. If the elasticity of substitution is sufficiently large, the long-run relative demand for a factor can slope up. I apply this framework to discuss a range of issues including: Why technical change over the past 60 years was skill-biased, and why the skill bias may have accelerated over the past twenty-five years. Why new technologies introduced during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were unskill-biased. Why biased technical change may increase the income gap between rich and poor countries. Why international trade may induce skill-biased technical change. Why a large wage-push, as in continental Europe during the 1970s, may cause capital-biased technical change. Why technical change may be generally labor-augmenting rather than capital-augmenting.

Abstract: For many problems in macroeconomics, development economics, labour economics, and international trade, whether technical change is biased towards particular factors is of central importance. This paper develops a simple framework to analyse the forces that shape these biases. There are two major forces affecting equilibrium bias: the price effect and the market size effect. While the former encourages innovations directed at scarce factors, the latter leads to technical change favouring abundant factors. The elasticity of substitution between different factors regulates how powerful these effects are, determining how technical change and factor prices respond to changes in relative supplies. If the elasticity of substitution is sufficiently large, the long run relative demand for a factor can slope up.I apply this framework to develop possible explanations to the following questions: why technical change over the past 60 years was skill biased, and why the skill bias may have accelerated over the past 25 years? Why new technologies introduced during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were unskill biased? What is the effect of biased technical change on the income gap between rich and poor countries? Does international trade affect the skill bias of technical change? What are the implications of wage push for technical change? Why is technical change generally labour augmenting rather than capital augmenting? Copyright 2002, Wiley-Blackwell.