Showing papers on "Fertility published in 1976"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that an inadequate understanding of how birth levels first begin to fall has led to a premature gloom about the success of family planning programs and unnecessary hysteria about the likely longterm size of the human population and to antagonisms between countries at different stages of demographic transition.
Abstract: Interpretations of past population movements and expectations about future trends rest primarily on the "demographic transition theory". However over the years there has been a failure to update the theory. Subsequently researchers have tended to obscure the important distinction between the origins of fertility decline and the demographic history of societies experiencing such decline. This paper argues that an inadequate understanding of how birth levels first begin to fall has led to a premature gloom about the success of family planning programs and unnecessary hysteria about the likely long-term size of the human population and to antagonisms between countries at different stages of demographic transition. It is the contention of this paper that there are only two fertility regimes: one in which there is no economic gain to individuals from restricting fertility and one in which there is economic gain from such transition. Furthermore the author posits that the transition of a society from one with economically unrestricted fertility to one with economically restricted fertility is a product of social change. The forces sustaining economically unrestricted fertility are strengthened by economic modernization accompanied by specific types of social change. Three types of societies are discussed: primitive traditional and transitional societies. Lastly the author maintains that unlimited fertility eventually crumbles in transitional societies and such crumbling as well as its preconditions is unrelated to reductions in family size subsequently occurring in transitional societies.
933 citations
TL;DR: Analysis of 3589 women in their mid-20s indicates that the number of children planned is more often determined by labor force participation planned than the reverse.
Abstract: Analysis of 3589 women in their mid-20s indicates that the number of children planned is more often determined by labor force participation planned than the reverse. A statistical model is constructed which 1) allows labor force participation plans to cause fertility expectations of young women; 2) simultaneously allows fertility expectations to cause labor force participation plans; 3) allows certain background factors to account for the relationship between fertility expectations and labor force participation plans. One model allows a womans plans for labor force participation to be caused by income and attitude of husband toward labor force participation. The conclusion reached by the model is that the correlation between fertility expectations and labor force participation results from their common antecedent causes rather than a direct causal link.
241 citations
TL;DR: The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate, as well as components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974.
Abstract: The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.
215 citations
TL;DR: In this article, three events in American history are cited as evidence that behavior is influenced by the interplay between aspirations and the resources people have to satisfy their aspirations, and it is concluded that when the male feels unable to support a larger family the couple decides to postpone childbearing.
Abstract: 3 events in American history are cited as evidence that behavior is influenced by the interplay between aspirations and the resources people have to satisfy their aspirations. 1st the total fertility rate for the U.S. 1940-1975 is plotted against the employment rate for young adult males. The fertility rates rise and fall behind the employment rates trailing by about a year or so. It is concluded that when the male feels unable to support a larger family the couple decides to postpone childbearing. 2nd real gross national product per capita is plotted against personal happiness scores gathered as the result of post-World-War-2 surveys in various countries by Gallup NORC and Cantril. This found that personal happiness was reported to be higher in countries where real gains had taken place in per capita income. The 3rd application surveys the declining birthrates among U.S. farm families in the 1800s. The hypothesis is that farmers wanted each child to receive a proper start in life and this was possible only by limiting family size. Examination of census records shows that fertility declined more in older more settled areas much more rapidly than in the frontier areas. A possible explanation is that it was more difficult to obtain land for a son to farm in the older areas. A table plotting family size against farm acreage values seems to bear this out. It is hoped this line of inquiry will lead to further research.
200 citations
TL;DR: As farm settlement spread westward, area after area exhibited remarkably similar economic and demographic changes, among them, the establishment of a virtually zero growth rate of farm population, due to a shift in farm family fertility from very high to replacement levels, a trend apparent in older areas as early as the beginning of the nineteenth century despite the abundance of good farm land as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: As farm settlement spread westward, area after area exhibited remarkably similar economic and demographic changes, among them, the establishment of a virtually zero growth rate of farm population. At bottom this was due to a shift in farm family fertility from very high to replacement levels, a trend apparent in older areas as early as the beginning of the nineteenth century despite the abundance of good farm land to the west. The principal source of this wholly voluntary adjustment of fertility was the increasing difficulty encountered by farm parents in providing for their children the kind of start in life they would like them to have. Similar pressures may account for other rural fertility declines in the historical past or today's LDC's.
199 citations
01 Oct 1976
TL;DR: Data collected as part of a study of land utilization carried out by Naking University in 1929-1931 are reappraised using techniques for demographic analysis of faulty data which shows a consistent picture of the Chinese farmer of high morta moderate fertility, and early and universal marriage.
Abstract: An analysis of the composition characteristics and vital processes of the population of rural mainland China was undertaken using data collected as part of a study of land utilization carried out by Naking University in 1929-1931. These data have been reappraised using techniques for demographic analysis of faulty data which shows a consistent picture of the Chinese farmer of high morta moderate fertility and early and universal marriage. Estimates of the singulate mean age at marriage was 17.5 for females and 21.3 for males. Fewer than 1 in 1000 women and 3 in 1000 men never married. The reported parity of older women was only slightly above 5 which disputes the very large historical family size that has been imputed to the chinese. There was a life expectancy of less than 25 years for each sex and very high infant mortality. These characteristics were of sufficient persistence to have generated a stable age distribution.
183 citations
TL;DR: The relationship between fertility and child mortality has occupied a central place in demographic research and has naturally invited speculation concerning possible causal links between them as mentioned in this paper. But it is natural and potentially fruitful to operate within a framework where preferences concerning family size are given a primary role.
Abstract: The relationship between fertility and child mortality has occupied a central place in demographic research. The "theory of demographic transition" focuses attention on the timing of declines in fertility and child mortality and has naturally invited speculation concerning possible causal links between them. Some explanations stress the physiological aspects of fertility. But it is natural and potentially fruitful to operate within a framework where preferences concerning family size are given a primary role. This paper deals with the effect of child mortality on fertility; child mortality may also affect age at marriage and other aspects of household structure that have a bearing on fertility but which are not discussed here. More important, a complete interpretation of the child-mortality-fertility relationship should take account of the fact that child mortality may be an endogenous variable. The prevention of death via nutrition, mother care, and real expenditure on health is responsive to the level of income and relative prices: when the desired expenditure on children is large, the implications of mortality become more important. In this paper, however, the endogeneity of child mortality is not discussed and only the causation going from child mortality to fertility is analyzed.
132 citations
131 citations
112 citations
TL;DR: Historical evidence is presented about womens work experiences before and during industrialization and an alternative model to explain fertility changes which is based on historical evidence is offered.
Abstract: 19th century theories relating womens work to fertility and illegitimacy rates are generally described. Edward Shorters 1973 article in which he argued that female emancipation led to increased rates of fertility in Western Europe at the end of the 18th century is reviewed. Shorter maintains that sexual emancipation of working-class women was brought on by industrial employment opportunities outside the home. Work led to sexual liberation by revolutionizing womens attitudes about themselves. Although Shorters interpretation is important in that he brings womens history into demographic history it is a misleading article. Increased illegitimacy rates are the only real evidence presented by Shorter for the hypothesis that womens attitudes and sexual behavior changed. This article critically examines Shorters hypothesis and then presents historical evidence about womens work experiences before and during industrialization. An alternative model to explain fertility changes which is based on historical evidence is offered. Factors contributing to the rise of European fertility rates which are accounted for in this model include declining mortality earlier and more marriages close spacing of births and growth in the population of propertyless workers. Fertility fell toward the end of the 19th century because of a decline in infant and child mortality and an increase in prosperity. It is argued that womens work in the late 18th and early 19th centuries was not liberating in any sense of the word.
111 citations
TL;DR: The evidence presented here suggests that the effect is not automatic and probably not a necessary pre-condition for fertility decline, which means that increased child survival will contribute to fertility decline mainly in countries experiencing rapid mortality decline and population growth.
Abstract: Summary Because of current interest in the child survival hypothesis, we have reviewed available evidence bearing upon the relationships of infant and child mortality to fertility and contraceptive behaviour. The evidence is drawn from time series data for local and national vital events, from special in-depth studies of the infant mortality-fertility relationships in family formation, and from service statistics from health and family planning programmes. As a result of this review, we suggest five clarifications which should be made in redefining the child survival hypothesis and assessing its potential programme implications. The child survival hypothesis states that improved child survival will contribute to increased family planning motivation and consequent fertility decline. The evidence presented here suggests that the effect is not automatic and probably not a necessary pre-condition for fertility decline. There is certainly not a reflexive one-to-one replacement, but a partial effect may still b...
TL;DR: Neither the findings nor the approaches of previous analyses of the economics of fertility are particularly helpful in determining the economic effects of teenage childbearing.
Abstract: Economists since the time of Malthus have attempted to unravel the interrelationship between fertility and various economic variables, primarily income. These analyses have concentrated mainly on two aspects of the economic determinants and consequences of fertility decisions: the macroeconomic impact of fertility on development and growth' and, more recently, the home economics approach, which employs microeconomic models to analyze fertility decisions.2 Unfortunately, neither the findings nor the approaches of previous analyses of the economics of fertility are particularly helpful in determining the economic effects of teenage childbearing. Moreover, the consequences of teenage childbearing, per se, except perhaps for the medical consequences, have been neglected by disciplines other than economics. Ideally, we should like to find the economic difference to the individual woman and to society if the woman becomes pregnant or does not become pregnant while a teenager. We may call the microeconomic consequences the economic differential between two average women, identical except that one became pregnant while still in her teens. The impact of many such pregnancies produces a macroeconomic effect. Teenage childbearing is associated with less schooling, lower income, increased poverty and dependency, and increased levels of childbearing, much of which is unwanted and out-ofwedlock.
TL;DR: This article showed that while fraternal polyandry does not affect individual fertility, it does have a significant depressing effect on aggregate fertility and functions, unperceived and unintended, as an important mechanism for reducing population growth.
Abstract: The manner in which cultural factors affect fertility has become an important area of anthropological concern. In this article, it will be shown that while fraternal polyandry does not affect individual fertility it does have a significant depressing effect on aggregate fertility and functions, unperceived and unintended, as an important mechanism for reducing population growth.
TL;DR: In the early part of the nineteenth century, when the population was 90 to 95 percent rural, there is unmistakable evidence of a downtrend, and there are indications of declines in rural fertility even before 1800 as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: G REAT movements in the history of world population have often been a source of conjecture among historians.' The most spectacular population development has been the surge and subsequent slowdown in population growth in industrializing countries during the modern era, the so-called "demographic transition." Early scholars viewed the demographic transition, and particularly the decline in fertility that caused the slowdown in population growth, as a result of urbanization and industrialization, though the specific links between these processes and fertility were unclear.2 Recent work, however, has suggested the importance of decreasing fertility of the rural population in the total fertility decline. Nowhere has the role of the rural population been more evident than in the United States. The level of American fertility in the eighteenth century was one of the highest ever recorded. For the early part of the nineteenth century, however, when the population was 90 to 95 percent rural, there is unmistakable evidence of a downtrend, and there are indications of declines in rural fertility even before 1800.3 By 1900, the fertility of the rural white population was only about 60 percent of that a
TL;DR: The offspring of teenage mothers are at greater risk than the offspring of older women although quality prenatal care and origin in a favorable socioeconomic background will ameliorate substantial elements of this risk.
TL;DR: Review of the literature revealed an additional 24 cases of fertility in women with gonadal dysgenesis associated with a 45,X chromosomal line, and patients should be advised regarding their reduced fertility potential and the possibility of abnormal offspring.
TL;DR: In the first half of the nineteenth century, Yasuba's analysis of the fertility ratios of the white population of the United States between I8oo and I860 as discussed by the authors showed that the steadily decreasing supply of farm land is the best explanation of the differentials and trends in the white fertility ratios.
Abstract: have analyzed fertility during that period is that the relative availability of farm land rather than urban or industrial development accounted for fertility differentials and trends. The major work on fertility in the first half of the nineteenth century is Yasuba's analysis of the fertility ratios of the white population of the United States between I8oo and I860. He argued that the steadily decreasing supply of farm land is the best explanation of the differentials and trends in the white fertility ratios-particularly in the period before I830.' Recent work has challenged many of Yasuba's points. For example, his work has been criticized for its use of state rather than county or township data; its reliance on rank correlation techniques of analysis rather than the multiple regression procedures which would have permitted him to examine simultaneously the effects of several variables on fertility, and its use of cropland in 1949 as an index of land availability in the nineteenth century.2 However, most
TL;DR: The aim of this study was to assess the importance of the child-replacement motivational response to child death experience after biological effects have been controlled adequately, and to reduce fertility by prolonging the average period of post-partum sterility.
Abstract: Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects, behavioural and biological, of child mortality experience on subsequent fertility in two South Asian Islamic nations. Data for the investigation came from retrospective pregnancy histories of 2,910 currently married women interviewed in the Pakistan National Impact Survey (1968-69) and from longitudinal vital registration data (1966-2070) of 5,236 women residing in a rural area of Bangladesh collected by the Cholera Research Laboratory. The aim of this study was to assess the importance of the child-replacement motivational response to child death experience after biological effects have been controlled adequately. A common approach employed previously has been to examine cumulative fertility according to child death experience. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, a consistently positive relationship was demonstrated between the number of children ever born and the number of child deaths. This method, however, did not exclude the inverse relationship, the influence of fertility on mortality, nor did it dissect out behavioural from biological effects. Utilizing a measure of subsequent fertility, live-birth-to-live-birth intervals, the study further illustrated another common pitfall. Since the risk of infant death, which leads to shorter birth intervals, is associated with the mother's reproductive history, women with child mortality experience are more likely to experience shorter intervals because of the biological effect of subsequent infant death. Behavioural influences may, therefore, be observed by considering only those birth intervals in which the first-born child survives to the end of the interval. With these limitations controlled, very few, if any, behavioural influences were noted in the Pakistan and Bangladesh data. Median birth intervals in Pakistan varied between 35-43 and 41-42 months, increasing with parity. Within each parity group, no consistent difference was observed between women with and without previous child loss. In Bangladesh, the median birth interval for all women with a surviving infant was 37-2 months. This was shortened to 24-31 months by an infant death. When intervals with infant deaths were excluded, little or no behavioural influence was detected among women of the same parity, but with varying levels of previous child loss. Even without behavioural effects, elimination of infant mortality in Bangladesh would reduce fertility by prolonging the average period of post-partum sterility. In the Bangladesh setting, however, the size of the effect was only about four per cent. This modest effect, more-over, was counterbalanced by an overall increase of net reproduction by seven per cent due to better survivorship of infants.
TL;DR: Following abortion or delivery, teenagers' knowledge and use of effective contraception improved markedly; but those who had negative pregnancy tests continued to take risks--and to get pregnant--subsequently.
Abstract: Following abortion or delivery, teenagers' knowledge and use of effective contraception improved markedly; but those who had negative pregnancy tests continued to take risks--and to get pregnant--subsequently. Most sexually active teenagers were poorly educated on the facts of reproduction, and began to have intercourse before seeking contraception.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: Analysis of National Fertility Study data suggest that "later means fewer"--quite apart from the declining fecundity that occurs at older ages--and couples who delay having children until relatively late in life are subject to fewer pressures to have children.
Abstract: Are we due for a new baby boom as couples who had postponed childbearing begin to make up for lost time? Analysis of National Fertility Study data suggest that "later means fewer"--quite apart from the declining fecundity that occurs at older ages. Couples who delay having children until relatively late in life are subject to fewer pressures to have children (or more children) even as the reasons not to begin (or increase) their families become more salient.
TL;DR: Contraception and carbohydrate metabolism was reviewed with the following main topics: frequency of abnormal results types of women at great risk mechanism of action reversibility of change individual steroid effects (estrogens-progestogens) and clinical implications.
TL;DR: The sharp decline in U.S. births that has occurred in the last decade and a half has been attributed almost entirely to the reduction of unplanned births, associated in turn with the widespread dissemination of a highly effective fertility control technology—namely, the pill, IUDs, new techniques of sterilization, and suction abortion.
Abstract: The sharp decline in U.S. births that has occurred in the last decade and a half has been attributed almost entirely to the reduction of unplanned births, associated in turn with the widespread dissemination of a highly effective fertility control technology—namely, the pill, IUDs, new techniques of sterilization, and suction abortion.1 The welcome accorded modern methods for making possible far more effective control over fertility than had ever before been available has been tempered by continuing concern over short- and long-term adverse and, in very rare cases, fatal side effects that have been associated with these methods. It is acknowledged that better understanding of the comparative effectiveness and safety of the various regimens is needed by the individuals who use them, the health services that provide them, and the agencies that regulate them. In September 1969, one of the authors (C.T.), using a simple paper and pencil model, compared the morbidity risks associated with the use of different methods of fertility regulation with those associated with unwanted births resulting from no use of fertility control. In that comparative framework—the only kind of framework in which the meaning of the various risks can be understood—he concluded:
TL;DR: In this paper, a model for forecasting fertility fluctuations in a population that is highly urbanized has low mortality and contracepts effectively is described, based on the research of Easterlin which questions whether fertility and age distribution can be forecast separately.
Abstract: A model for forecasting fertility fluctuations in a population that is highly urbanized has low mortality and contracepts effectively is described. Based on the research of Easterlin which questions whether fertility and age distribution can be forecast separately it exploits a strong observed association of age-specific fertility and population size and structure. Population size and age structure are hypothesized to affect relative income through the mechanisms of pressure on limited resources. It is the comparison of income with expectations or aspirations that matters in the relationship. There will thus be a positive relationship between fertility and relative income and a negative one between age group size and income. Taken together these suggest that fertility and cohort size should be inversely related; which association forms the basis for the model. This is contrary to the usual assumption for forecasting in the U.S. i.e. that fertility rates are independent of population size and age structure. Though the model has not yet been well tested and still depnds on many subjective decisions it does help to identify the long run level of fertility by placing current experience in perspective. The ability to forecast fluctuations in fertility and age structure will demographers believe be increasingly important and will have major policy implications. When applied to the U.S. the model indicates that current fertility is only temporarily low and an upturn should occur after 5 or 10 years.
01 Jan 1976
TL;DR: There are many explanations of why human fertility varies from one society to another and among different groups or individuals within the same society as mentioned in this paper. But these explanations have not been notably successful in identifying and measuring the factors that affect fertility and hence to discriminate among current competing causal hypotheses.
Abstract: There are many explanations of why human fertility varies from one society to another and among different groups or individuals within the same society. Attempts to identify and measure the factors that affect fertility and hence to discriminate among current competing causal hypotheses have not been notably successful. This gap in our basic stock of knowledge is both a source of embarrassment to social scientists and an obstacle to the strategic formulation and tactical evaluation of population policies throughout the world.
TL;DR: There was a natural sequence of sexual and contraceptive behaviors as the young women launched their sexual careers, and family planning programs will succeed best if they allow for individual face-to-face contact.
Abstract: The psychological processes important in the sexual and contraceptive behavior of young women were studied by comparison of a group of sexually active never pregnant young women with a group of sexually active women with a recently confirmed unwanted pregnancy. Psychological and behavior patterns for the 2 groups were strikingly similar. Internalized sexual prohibitions and a lack of accurate knowledge characterized the early teen sexual initiation period of both groups of girls. Internal and external factors influenced sexual behavior at that and later times. The interrelationships among a subjective assessment of the risk of pregnancy pregnancy anxiety and contraceptive practice were examined. It was found that there was a natural sequence of sexual and contraceptive behaviors as the young women launched their sexual careers. Both individual psychology and partner interaction were studied. It is concluded that the psychological determinants of sexual and contraceptive behavior are individually unique complex and variable through time. Family planning programs will succeed best if they allow for individual face-to-face contact. The clinician should prescribe a method suitable currently for each individual.
TL;DR: For 10 years American economists have primarily been divided into three major groups those of Richard Easterlin and Gary Becker with dissidents forming the 3rd as mentioned in this paper, and recently differences between the groups have narrowed and the remaining issues are of style rather than substance.
Abstract: For 10 years American economists have primarily been divided into 3 major groups those of Richard Easterlin and Gary Becker with dissidents forming the 3rd. Recently differences between the groups have narrowed and the remaining issues are of style rather than substance. From 1960 to 1966 Becker argued that variations in completed fertility could be understood within the economic framework used for the analysis of demand for durable goods. Easterlin introduced the concept of socialization into the economic model; rejecting that the representative household behaves rationally on the basis of unchanging tastes. In 1973 both groups agreed that keeping other things constant the relation between fertility and income is positive. But when income changes something else is likely to change which has an offsetting effect on fertility. It is the nature of this force over which they disagree. In 1976 the Becker-Tomes model included child quality and child endowment which can be used for intergenerational fertility analysis and further reduced differences between groups. The Easterlin and Becker framework can be merged into a single model which is more consistent with theviews held by demographers and sociologists.
TL;DR: Overall, women in polygynous unions show slightly lower completed marital fertility than do women in monogamous unions, suggesting that polygyny is probably more important as a pattern of selection than as a causal factor in determining fertility.
Abstract: Summary Completed marital fertility in polygynous and monogamous unions in the nineteenth-century Mormon population is examined. Overall, women in polygynous unions show slightly lower completed marital fertility than do women in monogamous unions. In addition, patterns of differential fertility among wives of various positions in polygynous families are examined. Attempts to account for differential fertility in terms of differential childlessness, child spacing family limitation, age at marriage and occupational distribution are not successful. The hypothesis that wives in polygynous unions have lower coital frequency than wives in monogamous unions is contradicted by data on child spacing. Polygyny is probably more important as a pattern of selection than as a causal factor in determining fertility.