Showing papers on "Fertility published in 1994"

Desired fertility and the impact of population policies

Abstract: Ninety percent of the differences across countries in total fertility rates are accounted for solely by differences in women's reported desired fertility. Using desired fertility constructed from both retrospective and prospective questions, together with instrumental variables estimation, it is shown this strong result is not affected by either ex-post rationalization of births nor the dependence of desired fertility on contraceptive access or cost. Moreover, despite the obvious role of contraception as a proximate determinant of fertility, the additional effect of contraceptive availability or family planning on fertility is quantitatively small and explains very little cross country variation. These empirical results are consistent with theories in which fertility is determined by parent's choices about children within the social, educational, economic, and cultural environment that parents, and especially women, face. They contradict theories that assert a large causal role for expansion of contraception in the reduction of fertility.

An end to poverty

Abstract: The African continent is distinguished by a much higher fertility rate than other regions. Fertility in Africa has remained almost constant at slightly over six children per woman on average while important declines have occurred elsewhere over the past 25 years. High fertility in Africa is often attributed to poor diffusion of family planning early marriage and low female educational attainment but other cultural and economic factors are involved. The significant decline of infant mortality over the past several decades has produced growth rates never before observed. Africas very young populations may be at the origin of uncontrollable political disorder as young persons with bleak prospects fall easy prey to ethnic religious and political extremism. Demographic growth has become an additional barrier to development. High fertility is tolerated or encouraged as constituting a cultural trait but the resulting population growth is not a cultural trait. Demographic pressure has increased environmental problems in many regions. It is estimated that over ten million rural residents of the Sahel have been affected by soil degradation. The per capita availability of arable land fell from one-half to one-third hectare between 1965 and 1987. Shortages of firewood and water have become more common. The relationship between demographic growth environmental crisis and poverty in the countryside depends on other factors such as production techniques modes of access to land and water and the degree of security of land tenure. Population pressure was not the initial factor that disturbed the balance of the traditional societies but it exacerbated the effects of other forces such as the introduction of cash crops and monetarization of the economy. Rural exodus and accelerated urban migration have been prompted in large part by the higher incomes and greater availability of services of all types in the cities. Achieving control of fertility in Africa will require stabilization of rural populations territorial management and reduction of disparities between rural and urban areas.

Male phenotype, fertility, and the pursuit of extra-pair copulations by female birds

Abstract: In field and laboratory studies of birds, positive associations between male phenotype and success at obtaining extra-pair copulations or extra-pair fertilizations are often interpreted as providing evidence that females are using extra-pair copulations to obtain indirect benefits for their offspring, either through genes for increased viability, or for a fisherian mating advantage I describe a simple model, in which functional fertility (the success of ejaculates in fertilizing eggs) covaries with male phenotype, which can explain the observed associations equally well Under such a model, females pursue extra-pair copulations as insurance against the functional infertility of their mate, and obtain only direct benefits for themselves in their current reproductive event Several studies of birds suggest that a relation between male phenotype and functional fertility is often likely to exist and that there are many potential causes of functional infertility Non-manipulative field studies are unlikely to produce results which distinguish between the two hypotheses, and I discuss several alternative approaches which may allow their resolution

Physician Financial Incentives and Cesarean Section Delivery

Abstract: The 'induced demand' model states that in the face of negative income shocks physicians may exploit their agency relationship with patients by providing excessive care in order to maintain their incomes. We test this model by exploiting an exogenous change in the financial environment facing obstetrician/gynecologists during the 1970s: declining fertility in the U.S. We argue that the 13.5% fall in fertility over the 1970-1982 period increased the income pressure on ob/gyns, and led them to substitute from normal childbirth towards a more highly reimbursed alternative, cesarean delivery. Using a nationally representative micro-data set for this period, we show that there is a strong correlation between within state declines in fertility and within state increases in cesarean utilization. This correlation is robust to consideration of a variety of alternative hypotheses, and appears to be symmetric with respect to periods of fertility decline and fertility increase.

Why Fertility Changes

Abstract: There is considerable controversy over the causes of the completed fertility transitions that occurred in most industrial countries from 1870 to 1930 and the “new” fertility transitions that are currently underway in the developing world. New data and empirical analyses of both historical and contemporary fertility declines have weakened the standard theory of the demographic transition, but none of the plethora of new theories of fertility change have emerged as hegemonie or as alternative guides to empirical research. The vast body of empirical evidence on the origins, speed, and correlates of fertility declines in different historical and geographical settings shows more diversity than a simple theory of fertility change would predict. The challenge for the field is to develop a common theoretical framework that will accommodate the diversity of historical paths from high to low fertility.

Evolutionary and wealth flows theories of fertility: empirical tests and new models.

Abstract: There were 3 study communities: 1) the northern Ache in the subtropical forests of eastern Paraguay. During 2 field sessions 1981-82 and 1984-85 the Ache spent their time on hunting-and-gathering treks foraging and at the mission with 200 inhabitants where they engaged in horticulture fishing hunting and gathering. Reproductive histories of a sample of 174 Ache women indicated total fertility rate of 8.15 prior to contact with the society at large; fertility increased in the 1980s following sedentarization. 2) The Diamante consisted of some 200 individuals of mixed but mostly Piro ancestry in southeastern Peru at the base of the Andes. The Piro practiced horticulture shotgun hunting fishing gathering and some wage labor. The total fertility rate of 27 women currently living in the community was 8.2. The behavioral data were collected from August 1988 to June 1989. 3) The Yomiwato consisted of 105 Machiguenga in southeastern Peru subsisting upon swidden horticulture bow-and-arrow hunting fishing and gathering. The total fertility rate of 22 women was 8.1. The data were collected from September 1988 to May 1989. The average Machiguenga child under the age of 18 consumed 2120 calories per day but produced only 500 calories daily during the period from birth to age 18. Machiguenga adults on the other hand produced caloric surpluses starting at about age 20. The average Piro child consumed about 2300 calories per day and produced only 370. The average adult over age 60 produced some 6600 calories but consumed only around 2500. On average Ache children consumed 2500 calories and acquired about 560 calories. These results have negative implications for Caldwells wealth flows hypothesis.

Male Gametic Strategies: Sperm Size, Testes Size, and the Allocation of Ejaculate Among Successive Mates by the Sperm-Limited Fly Drosophila pachea and Its Relatives

Abstract: The gametic strategy of males comprises the amount of energy invested per sperm, the total amount invested in sperm production, and the pattern of sperm allocation among successive reproductive bouts. All of these variables were measured for each of the four species constituting the nannoptera species group of the Drosophilidae. Extreme interspecific variation was identified for all variables and enigmatic male reproductive strategies, including submaximal insemination of females, partitioning of ejaculate among successive mates, and production of few large sperm, were observed. Variation among species in female remating behavior was found to occur concomitantly with male remating behavior, probably because of female fertility demands. Relationships among testes size, sperm size, sperm numbers, and mating systems in these fruit flies are examined. These relationships are not consistent with patterns identified in studies of vertebrate taxa and suggest fundamental differences between vertebrates and invert...

Parity, contraception, infertility, and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Abstract: A case-control study of reproductive factors and cancer of the ovary was conducted during 1989-1992 in metropolitan Toronto and nearby areas of Southern Ontario, Canada. In total, 450 women aged 35-79 years with histologically verified new primary epithelial ovarian cancers were interviewed concerning their reproductive histories. Over the same time period, 564 randomly selected population controls, frequency-matched to the cases according to three 15-year age groups, were also interviewed. Continuous unconditional logistic regression methods were used for analysis. It was found that childbearing and use of oral contraceptives were associated with significant decreasing trends in risk of ovarian cancer; the respective odds ratios were 0.78 for each full-term pregnancy (p < 10(-8)) and 0.92 for each year of use (p < 10(-6)). Hysterectomy was also associated with reduced risk, even after more than 20 years. Among parous women, infertility did not appear to affect risk; for nulliparous women, some evidence of increased risk was present, although fertility problems were reported by only a small fraction of nulliparae. It is suggested that the relatively lower parity of cases as compared with controls may be due to voluntary choices for having fewer children.

How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility

Abstract: This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women’s status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single “structural” proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system.

Individual and Community Aspects of Women's Status and Fertility in Rural Bangladesh

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between women's status and fertility in two regions of rural Bangladesh. Based on individual and household-level survey data, women's status is measured through four constructs. The covariates of these four aspects of women's status vary considerably and confirm the view that women's status is conceptually and operationally complex. For all aspects, however, variation between villages accounts for the largest share of explainable variance. Proxy measures of status do not provide uniform relationships with all facets of status. Further, the paper shows that women's status is an important determinant of fertility; of the variance in total children ever born that can be explained by factors other than age, nearly 30 per cent is due to direct measures of women's status; this is as much as can be explained by all other socio-economic variables combined. Thus, models of fertility that rely solely on proxy measures of women's status will be underspecified. In addition, measur...

Sources of bias in studies of time to pregnancy

Abstract: Among sexually active couples who are not using contraception, there is considerable heterogeneity in fertility, even among those who eventually achieve pregnancy. The number of menstrual cycles required, measured in integer time, is greatly overdispersed compared to the geometric, suggesting that the per cycle probability of conception varies considerably among couples. Some of this variability may reflect the effect of reproductive toxicants on fertility, and studies of time to pregnancy can be useful in identifying such toxic effects. We describe models for analysing time-to-pregnancy data, and discuss seven sources of bias that can lead the reproductive epidemiologist to spurious conclusions. Certain analytic and design strategies can help protect against some of the pitfalls.

Human capital, family planning, and their effects on population growth

Abstract: Statistical evidence at the household level suggests that fertility and child mortality are related to factors specified by economic models of family resource allocation and behavior. Several of these factors, such as women's education and family planning, appear to decrease both fertility and child mortality, leaving in doubt what net effects these human-capital and social-welfare programs have had on the recent slowing of world population growth. The specific factors considered here include family-planning programs, human-capital endowments of women and men, natural resource wealth, other economic structural determinants of the costs and benefits of children, and the availability of nutritional inputs. Cross-sectional relationships are reported, and changes within countries are analyzed with fixed-effect methods using data for 68 lowincome countries for the last two decades.

Advances in human reproductive ecology.

Abstract: Human reproductive ecology pertains to reproduction biology and changes due to environmental influences. The research literature relies on clinical epidemiological and demographic analysis. The emphasis is on normal nonpathological states and a broad range of ecological conditions. This review focused on the importance of age and energetic stress from ecological conditions rather than dieting or self-directed exercise in changing female fecundity. The literature on male reproductive ecology is still small but growing. J.W. Wood provided a comprehensive overview of the field. Natural fertility as defined by Henry is the lack of parity-specific fertility limitation. There is evidence that fertility can vary widely in natural fertility populations. There are consistent age patterns among different natural fertility populations. Doring found that there was higher frequency of anovulatory and luteal insufficiency in cycles during perimenarche and perimenopausal periods. Infertility studies have shown declines in pregnancy rates in women over the age of 30 years. Ovum donation evaluations have found both uterine age and ovarian and oocyte age to be related to the probability of a successful pregnancy. Basal follicle stimulating hormone and the endometrial thickness are important predictors of ovarian capacity and related to age and declining fecundity. Much of the literature on fecundity is derived from women with impaired reproductive physiology. In Lipson and Ellisons study of healthy women average follicular and average luteal estradiol values declined with increasing subject age. Low follicular levels were correlated with smaller follicular size low oocyte fertilizability reduced endometrial thickness and low pregnancy rates. Comparisons across populations have shown that populations experience declines in luteal function with age but levels of luteal functions varied widely. Chronic conditions which slow growth and delay reproductive maturation may impact on lower ovarian function throughout adult life. There is a range of ovarian function along a continuum due to energetic stress. Evidence from the Lese in Zaire the Tamang of Nepal and Polish farm women outside Crakow suggest that workload affects ovarian function. Luteal function and ovulatory frequency is lower when women are losing weight. Among the Tamang losing weight between seasons there was evidence of lower ovarian function during the monsoon season. Polish farm women who work very hard in summer had lower ovarian function. The effect of lactation on amenorrhea appears to be due to the energetic stress on the mother in the intensity and duration of suckling. Women in poorer nutritional status may require more intense suckling. Seasonality of energy balance may be related to seasonality of female fecundity and conceptions.

Trends in fertility and intermarriage among immigrant populations in Western Europe as measures of integration.

Abstract: Demographic data on fertility and intermarriage are useful measures of integration and assimilation. This paper reviews trends in total fertility and intermarriage of foreign populations in Europe and compares them with the trends in fertility of the host population and the sending country. In almost all cases fertility has declined. The fertility of most European immigrant populations and of some West Indian and non-Muslim Asian populations has declined to a period level at or below that of the host society. Muslim populations from Turkey, North Africa and South Asia have shown the least decline. Intermarriage is proceeding faster than might be expected in immigrant populations which seemed in economic terms to be imperfectly integrated. Up to 40% of West Indians born in the UK, for example, appear to have white partners as do high proportions of young Maghrebians in France.

Infertility in women and moderate alcohol use.

Abstract: OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between moderate alcohol intake and fertility. METHODS. Interviews were conducted with 3833 women who recently gave birth and 1050 women from seven infertility clinics. The case subjects were categorized based on the infertility specialist's assignment of the most likely cause of infertility: ovulatory factor, tubal disease, cervical factor, endometriosis, or idiopathy. Separate logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between alcohol use and each type of infertility, adjusted for age, infertility center, cigarette smoking, caffeine use, number of sexual partners, use of an intrauterine device (for tubal disease), and body mass index and exercise (for ovulatory factor). RESULTS. We found an increase in infertility, due to ovulatory factor or endometriosis, with alcohol use. The odds ratio for ovulatory factor was 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0, 1.7) for moderate drinkers and 1.6 (95% CI = 1.1, 2.3) for...

The Determinants of Reproductive Change in Bangladesh: Success in a Challenging Environment

Abstract: Demographic trends have taken many surprising forms over the last 30 years, but none have aroused such surprise, even incredulity, as recent events in Bangladesh. Although this country remains one of the poorest and least developed of all nations, there is mounting evidence of a steep decline in fertility. Fertility transition in such settings as China, Indonesia, and south India has already demonstrated that high material living standards are not a necessary precondition for a fall in birth rates. Yet in these cases alternative explanations were readily available; high levels of adult literacy in south India, for instance, and the prior creation of powerful nonfamilial welfare institutions in China. Bangladesh, in contrast, appears to possess no features that are conducive to fertility decline, except for a strong, persistent government commitment to reducing population growth. The aim of this volume are threefold. First, it documents with maximum precision the timing, magnitude, and nature of fertility change. Having established the demographic facts, the second aim is to assess alternative explanations. Of necessity, the explanatory net has to be widely cast because there are so many possible influences on human reproduction; nor is it desirable to cling to any specific theoretical position. The volume proceeds to review social and economic changes and their possible links to reduced demand or need for children. It focuses on shifts to consideration of the role of the family planning program in reducing fertility. Thirdly, its aim is to spell out the implications of the analysis for future population policy and programs.

Constructing Natural Fertility: The Use of Western Contraceptive Technologies in Rural Gambia

Abstract: In 1992 in 41 villages in the North Bank region of rural Gambia researchers interviewed 2979 15-54 year old women to examine the means by which this population maintains natural fertility birth intervals. Only 3.3% had ever had formal schooling. The total fertility rate was 7.5. Criteria the women used in their decision making process about contraception included effectiveness confidentiality speed with which fecundity returns after the practice ends and risk of long-term fertility impairment. Women practice postpartum abstinence for 5-7 months. Birth intervals were around 33 months. Just 5.4% of all married women with at least 1 child used Western contraceptive methods (i.e. oral contraceptives the condom or Depo-Provera). Most of the use of Western contraceptives (55%) occurred within 18 months postpartum especially 12-17 months the time when most womens fecundity returns. Few women used them for more than a few months however. After 30 months they stopped using all forms of preventing pregnancy (Western local and abstinence) suggesting that they do not intend to reduce fertility but to control its timing. Most contraceptors (69%) who had had sex in the last month used a Western contraceptive compared to just 33% of those who were not sexually active. Women were most likely to use any contraception once they begin to supplement breast milk with other foods and least likely once they wean the child indicating that they are planning for another pregnancy. Even though younger women of higher parity (5-6) were more likely to use any contraception than older women of even higher parity (9-10) they were more likely to use abstinence or traditional means to assure a return to fertility. Among older high-parity women Depo-Provera was the most common method surpassing traditional methods. These findings show that women actively find means to use Western methods to achieve a 2 year minimum birth interval which essentially does not change birth intervals and total fertility.

Marital Status and Fertility in the United States Welfare and Labor Market Effects

Abstract: The incidence of marriage and the proportion of childbearing that occurs within marriage have decreased sharply in the United States in the last several decades. This paper examines whether the probability that a woman is currently married and the number of children she has borne, as reported in the 1980 U.S. Census, are related to two identifiable factors: the variation in welfare programs across states (specifically, AFDC and Medicaid benefits and AFDC-UP expenditures) or the variation in the market wage opportunities available to women and to their potential husbands. AFDC and Medicaid benefit levels are associated with fewer women being currently married. Medicaid benefits are related to lower fertility levels for both black and white women, whereas AFDC benefits in cash and food are associated with lower fertility among white women ages 15-24. Those states that extend AFDC benefits to families with unemployed parents (in other words, fathers in intact poor families) do not have significantly more women married or higher fertility rates, contrary to what might be expected from economic incentives. Men's market wages are associated with more frequent marriage and higher fertility, whereas higher market wage opportunities for women have substantial effects in the opposite direction, all of which are consistent with standard models of gender specialization and the demand for marriage and fertility.

Fertility decline in Prussia, 1875-1910: a pooled cross-section time series analysis.

Abstract: Marital fertility level and decline are examined in 407 small areas in Prussia using quinquennial data for the period 1875 to 1910 from an unusually rich and detailed data set, and pooled cross-section time-series methods. Religion, ethnicity, and prevalence of mineworkers are the only statistically significant factors associated with marital fertility level. However, none of these are important predictors of marital fertility decline. Marital fertility decline in nineteenth-century Prussia is better predicted by increased women's labour force participation in non-traditional occupations, the growth of financial institutions, the development of a transport-communications infrastructure, reduction in infant mortality and improvements in education.

Consanguineous marriage in Turkey and its impact on fertility and mortality

Abstract: Turkey has a high rate of consanguineous marriage (21.1%), indicating strong preference for this traditional form of marital union. Social and cultural factors are especially important in marriages between first and second cousins. Fertility is high, the closed birth interval is long, and the sterility rate is low among these couples. Post-neonatal, infant and under-5 mortalities are high in first cousin unions by comparison with non-consanguineous marriages. According to the results of the study, first cousin marriage is a significant determinant underlying the high total fertility and infant mortality rates in Turkey.

Women's position and demographic change

Abstract: Part 1 Women's position as a cause of demographic change: the impact of women's position on demographic change during the course of development - what do we know?, Karen Oppenhem Mason reproductive behaviour - patriarchal structure and demographic change, urban women's autonomy and natural fertility in the Sahel region of Africa, changing family ties, women's position and low fertility, the status of women and the position of children - competition or complementarity? mortality and morbidity - women's position and child mortality and morbidity in less-developed countries, sex differentials in adult mortality in less-developed countries - the evidence and its explanation, the condition of women and the health and mortality of infants and children, social change and mortality decline - women's advantage achieved or regained?, sex inequalities in morbidity and mortality migration - effects of women's position on their migration, Lin Lean Lim. Part 2 Women's position as an outcome of demographic change: historical features of women's position in society, Solvi Sogner the effects of fertility, family organization, sex structure of the labour market and technology on the position of women, Helen Ware "birds in a cage" - institutional change and women's position in Bangladesh, Shapan Adnan labour migration and female-headed households, Pauline Makinwa-Adebusoye some critical issues - occupational and conjugal inequalities and insecurity - effects on family organization and size, Christine Oppong.

Female Fertility, Obstetric and Gynaecological History in Coeliac Disease

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence of infertility, abortions and perinatal mortality, age at menarche and menopause in coeliac disease (CD). It was a case control study in whic

Determinants of Fertility and Child Mortality in Cote D'Ivoire and Ghana

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between child mortality and fertility in two neighboring West African countries: Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. The authors first explore separately the reduced form determinants of fertility and child mortality, as explained by individual, household and community characteristics. Fertility is somewhat higher in Cote d'Ivoire than in Ghana and appears not to have changed recently in either country. Child mortality is high, with about 16 percent of children dying before their fifth birthday. Women's education beyond the primary level is associated with substantially lower fertility in both countries. However, in Cote d'Ivoire, income, assets and mother's height are positively related to fertility, while in Ghana they are associated with lower fertility. These results suggest that Ghana is farther along in its fertility transition than is Cote d'Ivoire. Female education has a smaller effect on child mortality in Cote d'Ivoire, where relatively fewer women are educated, than in Ghana. Community characteristics explained only a small fraction of child mortality. However, the community's average experience of child mortality is still an important predictor of the household's child mortality, suggesting that there remain unobserved community factors that lower child mortality in the two countries. Future research may uncover some of these factors and demonstrate how public policy interventions can moderate them. There was only weak statistical support for treating child mortality at the household level as endogenous to the process determining fertility. When child mortality is treated as an exogenous variable, these estimates indicate that a reduction of five child deaths would lead to a decrease in fertility of one birth. Further development of women's education in both countries is likely to play a significant role in bringing child mortality under control and slowing population growth.

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

Abstract: This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that chil...

Immigrant and native fertility during the 1980s: adaptation and expectations for the future.

Abstract: Many immigrants have come to the US since the mid-1960s. The demographic effects of this phenomenon may be seen in both the changing racial and ethnic composition of the population and in the increasing contribution of immigration to sustaining population growth. Given the current below replacement level of fertility in the country US population growth depends increasingly upon the entry of new immigrants each year and their subsequent fertility. Over much of the 20th century immigrants had consistently lower fertility than native-born women. This situation changed however since the 1970s with the arrival of large numbers of immigrants from countries with high fertility. Studies based upon the US census have shown that despite considerable variation according to country of origin recent immigrants have higher fertility on average than native-born women. Moreover the gap between immigrant and native fertility levels appears to have increased during the 1980s. By 1986 immigrant women aged 18-44 had about one-quarter child more than similarly aged native-born women. This article compares both the fertility behavior and expectations for future childbearing of foreign and native-born women in the US with the goal of analyzing the sources of the growing fertility gap between immigrant and native women and exploring the extent to which immigrants adapt their fertility once in the US. Data are drawn from the 1980 US Census and the 1986 and 1988 June Current Population Surveys. The author found that the immigrant-native fertility gap increased during the 1980s not because immigrant fertility increased but because fertility dropped at a faster rate for natives than for immigrants. The relatively high fertility of immigrants compared to natives can be explained by compositional differences with respect to age education income and ethnicity. The two analyses of adaptation however yielded different results. The synthetic cohort analysis which traced the fertility behavior of a fixed cohort of immigrants during the 1980s found little evidence of adaptation or assimilation except for immigrants from southeast Asia. On the other hand the analysis of fertility expectations suggests that although immigrants expect to have higher fertility than similar natives they tend to adapt their fertility goals over time both within and across generations.

The Effect of Public Policies on recent Swedish Fertility Behavior

Abstract: In the literature the recent upsurge in period birth rates is seen as evidence of a pronatalist effect of Sweden's extensive social insurance programs. Yet, these explanations cannot account for the downturn in birth rates in the 1970s, the delay in childbearing, and the constancy of cohort birth rates which characterize recent Swedish fertility behavior. To summarize the effect of Sweden's economic and policy environment on the observed fertility patterns, I use a neoclassical economic framework to develop the shadow price of fertility. Although strong simplifying assumptions are imposed, the estimated price series exhibit a negative relationship with period fertility rates and the change in the estimated relative prices of fertility over the life cycle lend modest support for the delayed childbearing.

Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 1993-1994

Abstract: This report provides the full results of the 1993-94 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey among 9640 ever married women 10-49 years old and 3284 husbands of respondents. Evidence suggests rapid and accelerating fertility decline to 3.4 births during 1991-93 a drop of 21% from 1989-91. Levels of fertility varied by region. Chittagong had a total fertility rate of 4.0 births per woman compared to Rajshahi and Khulna Divisions with 3.0 births. Fertility was about 30% higher in rural areas. Fertility was 3.8 for women with no formal education and 2.6 for women with at least some secondary education. Age at first birth averaged 18.3 years during 1993-94. 33% of women 15-19 years old were pregnant or have had their first birth. 56% of ever married women desired a 2-child family and 24% desired a 3-child family. The percentage of women with two children who desired no more children increased from 39% in 1991 to 50% during 1993-94. About 50% of currently married women 10-49 years old did not want any more children and 12% were sterilized or infertile. 45% of married women were current users of family planning; 36% were modern method users. Pill use doubled within 4 years. Over 40% of teenage married women have already used a family planning method. Chittagong had low contraceptive use (29%). Knowledge about sources of supply was high throughout Bangladesh. Family planning messages were widespread throughout the media. Unmet need among currently married women declined from 28% in 1991 to 19% during 1993-94. 70% of total demand was being met. The pill was used correctly. About 50% of contraceptive users discontinued use within the first 12 months. Discontinuation rates were high for the condom (72%) withdrawal (55%) and injections (58%) compared to IUDs (37%) and the pill (45%). Child survival improved during the 1980s. Breast feeding was widespread and of long duration however food supplementation occurred too early. Only about 50% of infants under 2 months old were exclusively breast fed. 73% received prenatal care during pregnancy. 96% of births were home deliveries. 60% were assisted by traditional birth attendants.