Showing papers on "Financial risk published in 2017"

The Business Case for Investing in Physician Well-being

Abstract: Importance Widespread burnout among physicians has been recognized for more than 2 decades. Extensive evidence indicates that physician burnout has important personal and professional consequences. Observations A lack of awareness regarding the economic costs of physician burnout and uncertainty regarding what organizations can do to address the problem have been barriers to many organizations taking action. Although there is a strong moral and ethical case for organizations to address physician burnout, financial principles (eg, return on investment) can also be applied to determine the economic cost of burnout and guide appropriate investment to address the problem. The business case to address physician burnout is multifaceted and includes costs associated with turnover, lost revenue associated with decreased productivity, as well as financial risk and threats to the organization’s long-term viability due to the relationship between burnout and lower quality of care, decreased patient satisfaction, and problems with patient safety. Nearly all US health care organizations have used similar evidence to justify their investments in safety and quality. Herein, we provide conservative formulas based on readily available organizational characteristics to determine the financial return on organizational investments to reduce physician burnout. A model outlining the steps of the typical organization’s journey to address this issue is presented. Critical ingredients to making progress include prioritization by leadership, physician involvement, organizational science/learning, metrics, structured interventions, open communication, and promoting culture change at the work unit, leader, and organization level. Conclusions and Relevance Understanding the business case to reduce burnout and promote engagement as well as overcoming the misperception that nothing meaningful can be done are key steps for organizations to begin to take action. Evidence suggests that improvement is possible, investment is justified, and return on investment measurable. Addressing this issue is not only the organization’s ethical responsibility, it is also the fiscally responsible one.

Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies

Abstract: I model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development. The most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better. In good times, the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a trade deficit financed by the higher financial income that it earns as compensation for taking greater risk. During global crises, it suffers heavier losses. Its currency emerges as the reserve currency because it appreciates during crises, thus providing a good hedge. I provide evidence that financial net worth plays a crucial role in understanding this asymmetric risk sharing. (JEL E44, F14, F32, G01, G15, G21)

How Media Coverage of Corporate Social Irresponsibility Increases Financial Risk

Abstract: Research summary: This article explores the relationship between corporate social irresponsibility (CSI) and financial risk. We posit that media coverage of CSI generates risk by providing conditions that increase the potential for stakeholder sanctions. Through analyzing an international panel of 539 firms during 2008–2013, we find that firms receiving higher CSI coverage face higher financial risk. We show that the reach of the reporting media outlet is a critical condition for this relationship. Once the outlet has a high reach, the severity of CSI coverage is a boundary condition that further reinforces the effect. Our findings complement existing theory about the risk-mitigating effect of corporate social responsibility by illuminating the risk-generating effect of CSI coverage. For executives, these insights suggest complementary strategies for corporate risk management. Managerial summary: This article examines the effect of negative news on financial risk. It shows that negative media articles regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues increase a firm's credit risk. It also provides a detailed analysis of the impact of an article's reach and severity, i.e., how many readers are exposed to the article and how harshly it criticizes the firm. The results allow to quantitatively assess the risk that emanates from negative ESG news. For executives, three strategies are derived for limiting a firm's exposure to this risk: balancing corporate social responsibility programs with operational safety programs, reporting suboptimal environmental and social performance transparently and proactively, and avoiding acquisition targets and markets with a legacy of negative news. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Financial globalisation dynamic thresholds for financial development: evidence from Africa

Abstract: We investigate whether financial development benefits from financial globalisation are questionable until certain thresholds of financial globalisation are attained. The empirical evidence is based on (i) data from 53 African countries for the period 2000–2011 and (ii) interactive Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. The following findings are established. First, thresholds of Net Foreign Direct Investment Inflows as a percentage of GDP (FDIgdp) from which financial globalisation increases money supply are 20.50 and 16.00 for below- and above-median sub-samples of financial globalisation, respectively. Second, FDIgdp thresholds from which financial globalisation increases banking system activity and financial system activity for below-median sub-samples of financial globalisation are 13.81 and 13.29, respectively. Third, for financial size, there is evidence of: (i) a positive threshold of 21.30 in the full sample and (ii) consistent increasing returns without a modifying threshold for the above-median sub-sample. Policy implications are discussed.

Extreme risk spillover network: application to financial institutions

Abstract: Using the CAViaR tool to estimate the value-at-risk (VaR) and the Granger causality risk test to quantify extreme risk spillovers, we propose an extreme risk spillover network for analysing the int...

Hidden power of the Big Three? Passive index funds, re-concentration of corporate ownership, and new financial risk

Abstract: Since 2008, a massive shift has occurred from active toward passive investment strategies. The passive index fund industry is dominated by BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which we call the “Big Three.” We comprehensively map the ownership of the Big Three in the United States and find that together they constitute the largest shareholder in 88 percent of the SP and second, because company executives could be prone to internalizing the objectives of the Big Three. We discuss how this development entails new forms of financial risk.

Financial Literacy, Portfolio Choice, and Financial Well-Being

Abstract: This study examined potential effects of financial literacy on household portfolio choice and investment return, an indicator of financial wellbeing. Using data from the 2014 Chinese Survey of Consumer Finance, financial literacy was measured and further categorized into basic financial literacy and advanced financial literacy. This study tested the hypothesis that financial literacy affects household choice between stock and mutual fund. The results indicated that households with higher financial literacy, especially those with higher level of advanced financial literacy tended to delegate at least part of their portfolio to experts and invest in mutual fund. However, households who were overconfident about their financial literacy tended to invest by themselves and were more likely to hold only stocks in their portfolios. The findings also indicated that households with higher financial literacy had a better chance of receiving a positive investment return, suggesting that higher financial literacy may result in a better financial outcome.

Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics

Abstract: China currently faces the dual constraints of developing low-carbon economy and enabling sustainable energy utilization. It is an inevitable choice for the strategic transformation of economy development and energy development in China to develop renewable energy. Since renewable energy is a capital-and tech-intensive industry, which requires a large amount of investment and a high level of technology innovation. Investors face many different uncertainties when making a renewable energy project investment decision. Therefore, it has great significance for the development of renewable energy to evaluate the risks in renewable energy investment projects, and then make the best investment decisions. Based on above background, the topic of renewable energy investment risk is studied in this paper using system dynamics method. In the first part of the work, three main risks in renewable energy investment, technical risk, policy risk and market risk, have been discussed, and then causal loop diagram of investment risk and risk assessment model have been established by the system dynamics method, after that a numerical example was given in the last part of the paper. The result of the numerical example indicated that policy risk was the main factor affecting the investment in the early development stage, while policy risk and technology risk decline gradually, market risk has gradually become the main uncertainty affecting the investment in the mature development stage.

Multidimensional Facets of Perceived Risk in Mobile Travel Booking

Abstract: Despite the growing prevalence of smartphones in daily life and travel context, travellers still perceive an extent of risk associated with using their smartphone to book travel products In order to alleviate or reduce perceived risk, it is important to better understand the dimensions of and the factors that contribute to perceived risk This study analysed 411 responses from an online panel to examine perceived risk in mobile travel booking and identified the following facets: time risk, financial risk, performance risk, privacy/security risk, psychological risk, physical risk, and device risk Several antecedents of perceived risk were identified Perceived collection of personal information via smartphones contributes positively, while consumer innovativeness, trust, and visibility contribute negatively to perceived risk Further, the predictive validity of perceived risk is confirmed as it significantly explains perceived usefulness, attitude, and behavioural intention in mobile travel booking Implications to manage perceived risk and its antecedents are provided

Hidden Power of the Big Three? Passive Index Funds, Re-Concentration of Corporate Ownership, and New Financial Risk

Abstract: Since 2008, a massive shift has occurred from active towards passive investment strategies. This burgeoning passive index fund industry is dominated by BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which we call the ‘Big Three’. This paper is the first to comprehensively map the ownership of the Big Three in the United States. We find that already in 40 percent of all listed U.S. corporations the Big Three together constitute the largest shareholder — and even in 88 percent of the S&P 500 firms. This re-concentration of ownership is unprecedented and unlike the earlier ascent of actively managed mutual funds, such as Fidelity, is likely here to stay. In contrast to active funds, the Big Three hold illiquid and permanent ownership positions, which gives them stronger incentives to actively influence corporations. We find that they indeed utilize coordinated voting strategies but generally vote with management, except at director (re-)elections. Private engagements with management represent an important channel through which the Big Three exert influence. Moreover, BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street are arguably exerting ‘hidden power’ because company executives are likely to internalize their objectives. Finally, we find indications that this development entails new forms of financial risk, including anticompetitive effects and investor herding.

Financial arrangements for health systems in low‐income countries: an overview of systematic reviews

Abstract: Background One target of the Sustainable Development Goals is to achieve "universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all". A fundamental concern of governments in striving for this goal is how to finance such a health system. This concern is very relevant for low-income countries. Objectives To provide an overview of the evidence from up-to-date systematic reviews about the effects of financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries. Secondary objectives include identifying needs and priorities for future evaluations and systematic reviews on financial arrangements, and informing refinements in the framework for financial arrangements presented in the overview. Methods We searched Health Systems Evidence in November 2010 and PDQ-Evidence up to 17 December 2016 for systematic reviews. We did not apply any date, language, or publication status limitations in the searches. We included well-conducted systematic reviews of studies that assessed the effects of financial arrangements on patient outcomes (health and health behaviours), the quality or utilisation of healthcare services, resource use, healthcare provider outcomes (such as sick leave), or social outcomes (such as poverty, employment, or financial burden of patients, e.g. out-of-pocket payment, catastrophic disease expenditure) and that were published after April 2005. We excluded reviews with limitations important enough to compromise the reliability of the findings. Two overview authors independently screened reviews, extracted data, and assessed the certainty of evidence using GRADE. We prepared SUPPORT Summaries for eligible reviews, including key messages, 'Summary of findings' tables (using GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence), and assessments of the relevance of findings to low-income countries. Main results We identified 7272 reviews and included 15 in this overview, on: collection of funds (2 reviews), insurance schemes (1 review), purchasing of services (1 review), recipient incentives (6 reviews), and provider incentives (5 reviews). The reviews were published between 2008 and 2015; focused on 13 subcategories; and reported results from 276 studies: 115 (42%) randomised trials, 11 (4%) non-randomised trials, 23 (8%) controlled before-after studies, 51 (19%) interrupted time series, 9 (3%) repeated measures, and 67 (24%) other non-randomised studies. Forty-three per cent (119/276) of the studies included in the reviews took place in low- and middle-income countries. Collection of funds: the effects of changes in user fees on utilisation and equity are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). It is also uncertain whether aid delivered under the Paris Principles (ownership, alignment, harmonisation, managing for results, and mutual accountability) improves health outcomes compared to aid delivered without conforming to those principles (very low-certainty evidence). Insurance schemes: community-based health insurance may increase service utilisation (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on health outcomes are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether social health insurance improves utilisation of health services or health outcomes (very low-certainty evidence). Purchasing of services: it is uncertain whether increasing salaries of public sector healthcare workers improves the quantity or quality of their work (very low-certainty evidence). Recipient incentives: recipient incentives may improve adherence to long-term treatments (low-certainty evidence), but it is uncertain whether they improve patient outcomes. One-time recipient incentives probably improve patient return for start or continuation of treatment (moderate-certainty evidence) and may improve return for tuberculosis test readings (low-certainty evidence). However, incentives may not improve completion of tuberculosis prophylaxis, and it is uncertain whether they improve completion of treatment for active tuberculosis. Conditional cash transfer programmes probably lead to an increase in service utilisation (moderate-certainty evidence), but their effects on health outcomes are uncertain. Vouchers may improve health service utilisation (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on health outcomes are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). Introducing a restrictive cap may decrease use of medicines for symptomatic conditions and overall use of medicines, may decrease insurers' expenditures on medicines (low-certainty evidence), and has uncertain effects on emergency department use, hospitalisations, and use of outpatient care (very low-certainty evidence). Reference pricing, maximum pricing, and index pricing for drugs have mixed effects on drug expenditures by patients and insurers as well as the use of brand and generic drugs. Provider incentives: the effects of provider incentives are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence), including: the effects of provider incentives on the quality of care provided by primary care physicians or outpatient referrals from primary to secondary care, incentives for recruiting and retaining health professionals to serve in remote areas, and the effects of pay-for-performance on provider performance, the utilisation of services, patient outcomes, or resource use in low-income countries. Authors' conclusions Research based on sound systematic review methods has evaluated numerous financial arrangements relevant to low-income countries, targeting different levels of the health systems and assessing diverse outcomes. However, included reviews rarely reported social outcomes, resource use, equity impacts, or undesirable effects. We also identified gaps in primary research because of uncertainty about applicability of the evidence to low-income countries. Financial arrangements for which the effects are uncertain include external funding (aid), caps and co-payments, pay-for-performance, and provider incentives. Further studies evaluating the effects of these arrangements are needed in low-income countries. Systematic reviews should include all outcomes that are relevant to decision-makers and to people affected by changes in financial arrangements.

Measures of Systemic Risk

Abstract: Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient macroprudential regulation of financial institutions. The current paper proposes a novel approach to measuring systemic risk. Key to our construction is a rigorous derivation of systemic risk measures from the structure of the underlying system and the objectives of a financial regulator. The suggested systemic risk measures express systemic risk in terms of capital endowments of the financial firms. Their definition requires two ingredients: A cash flow or value model that assigns to the capital allocations of the entities in the system a relevant stochastic outcome; and an acceptability criterion, i.e., a set of random outcomes that are acceptable to a regulatory authority. Systemic risk is measured by the set of allocations of additional capital that lead to acceptable...

Exploring the Sources of Default Clustering

Abstract: The U.S. economy has repeatedly suffered significant clusters of corporate default events. This paper studies the sources of clustering using data on industrial and financial default timing in the U.S. between 1970 and 2012. We find strong evidence for the existence of several clustering channels, including firms' joint exposure to macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, the influence of a common latent factor with mean-reverting behavior, and the impact on firms of past default events. Our results have important implications for the management of portfolio credit risk at financial institutions as well as the risk analysis and pricing of securities exposed to correlated default risk.

Quantile-Based Risk Sharing

Abstract: We address the problem of risk sharing among agents using a two-parameter class of quantile-based risk measures, the so-called Range-Value-at-Risk (RVaR), as their preferences. The family of RVaR includes the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES), the two popular and competing regulatory risk measures, as special cases. We first establish an inequality for RVaR-based risk aggregation, showing that RVaR satisfies a special form of subadditivity. Then, the risk sharing problem is solved through explicit construction. Three relevant issues on optimal allocation are investigated: extra sources of randomness, comonotonicty, and model uncertainty. We show that, in general, a robust optimal allocation exists if and only if none of the underlying risk measures is a VaR. Practical implications of our main results for risk management and policy makers are discussed. In particular, in the context of the calculation of regulatory capital, we provide some general guidelines on how a regulatory risk measure can lead to certain desirable or undesirable properties of risk sharing among firms. Several novel advantages of ES over VaR from the perspective of a regulator are thereby revealed.

Evaluating borrower’s default risk in peer-to-peer lending: evidence from a lending platform in China

Abstract: Recent years have witnessed the popularity of online peer-to-peer lending, which allows individuals to borrow from and lend to each other on an Internet-based platform. Using data from a large P2P ...

Corporate social responsibility and firm financial risk reduction: On the moderating role of the legal environment

Abstract: Approaching the institutional environment through its regulative component, we distinguish between shareholder-oriented and stakeholder-oriented countries. Identifying first this classification with the distinction between common law versus civil law countries and using a large sample of 5,716 firm-year observations that represents 1,169 individual firms in 25 countries between 2001 and 2011, we show that Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) significantly reduces firms’ idiosyncratic risk in civil law countries but not in common law countries. Using then a more direct classification based on shareholder and employee protection scores, our findings suggest that CSR negatively affects firms’ idiosyncratic and systematic risks only in less shareholder-oriented and more stakeholder-oriented countries, respectively. These findings are similar in the different components of CSR with two notable exceptions: a high score in corporate governance reduces firm risk only in common law countries, and community involvement increases idiosyncratic risk in more shareholder-oriented and less stakeholder-oriented countries, respectively. Taken together, our results strongly support the view that the relationship between CSR and financial risk is moderated by the institutional context of the firm.

Bridging the gap: How sustainable development can help companies create shareholder value and improve financial performance

Abstract: This study examines the effect of integrating sustainability into corporate strategy on various aspects of shareholder value creation and financial performance in the British capital market. The employed method is based on the content analysis of corporate disclosures and a new technique for assessing the adoption of the corporate sustainability concept (embracing the environmental, social, and financial aspects of a company's policies at the same time). Using extensive data of FTSE 350 firms covering the years 2006–2012, 65 companies were selected as meeting corporate sustainability criteria. For the above period, we find that these firms were characterized by higher financial risk exposure, lower asset growth rates, lower BV/MV ratios, lower EVA ratios, and higher MVA ratios. Such relations were generally present among different size and industry groupings. The results support the thesis that firms that incorporate sustainability issues into their business operations are better able to leverage their resources toward stronger financial performance and shareholder value creation than other companies. The paper contributes to the literature by offering a more holistic approach to corporate sustainable performance measurement and shedding additional light on its relation to financial performance in the context of the recent global financial crisis and its direct aftermath.

The effect of business environment and entrepreneurs’ gender on perception of financial risk in the SMEs sector

Abstract: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are crucial, and not only for the Czech economy. Their sustainable growth is important for the economy of most European countries. Because of this, the issues surrounding their financing, government support and public perception are widely discussed. The problems connected with external financing of SMEs are closely related to effective management of financial risk, which can minimize competition, create better financial structure and increase the firm’s competitiveness. Our results of the questionnaire survey in the Czech Republic in 2015 were obtained using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) and revealed a factor which the male sample believed to be an important influence on the perception of financial risk is a bank’s approach to business. This factor is significantly influenced by knowledge, rules and principles including the knowledge of banks’ credit conditions, their transparency and the ability of entrepreneurs to manage financial risks. In the female sample, state and public perception showed to be much more important in the perception of financial risk. Male entrepreneurs mitigate financial risks through a bank’s assistance whereas female entrepreneurs emphasize the role of society.

Agri-food supply chain performance: an empirical impact of risk

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the key risk components (probability and consequence) and their respective thresholds affecting agri-food supply chain operations in Ghana. In addition, it seeks to understand the relationship between the major risk sources and to fathom the risk/disruption impact on agri-food supply chain performance in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach Cross-sectional survey data were collected using a structured questionnaire. The risks threshold associated with agri-food supply chain were categorized using the risk matrix scale and classification described in the Project Management Body of Knowledge (Project Management Institute, 2013). Next, the Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between the various risks and agri-food chain performance. Lastly, to investigate how firms’ supply chain operations have been affected by risks/disruptions, an ordinary least square regression model was employed to quantify the impact of some major risk sources on agri-food chain performance in Ghana. Findings The results in this paper show variations in risks’ probability, impact and threshold in agri-food supply chain. While risk sources such as periodic change in interest/exchange rate policies and volatility in customer demand are high-rated risks, uncertain land policies/tenure and poor quality control are low rated risks in the operations of the chain. The performance of the agri-food chain significantly but negatively correlates with all the major risks studied. Whereas demand, supply, weather, logistics/infrastructure and financial risk sources significantly undermined the chain’s performance, risks emerging from biological/environmental, management/operational, policy/regulations and political-related issues insignificantly affect the performance of agri-food supply chain in Ghana. Research limitations/implications This research is an area biased. However, some insightful managerial implications can be drawn from this paper to manage agri-food chain operations in a similar unstable environment. The result implies that risks are inevitable in agri-food chain but they differ in terms of menace to the chain’s operation. Therefore, to manage agri-food supply chain risks effectively, managers should periodically identify, quantify and categorize risk sources before making risk response decisions. In addition, the results show that risks account for about half of the overall agri-food chain performance in Ghana. This infers that managers/practitioners could improve the performance of the agri-food chain if limited resources are allocated to plan and effectively respond to major risks sources (such as demand, supply, finance, weather and logistical/ infrastructural services-related risks) undermining the performance of the chain. Originality/value This research contributes to the agri-food chain risk literature and provides managers/practitioners with empirical evidence of risk thresholds and their corresponding major impact on agri-food chain’s performance. Since risks explained about half of agri-food chain performance in Ghana, this research would prompt decision makers to improve on their risk assessment and responds (e.g. by employing efficient demand, supply and weather forecasting systems, logistic/infrastructure services, hedge to finance, etc.) to improve the chain’s performance.