Financial risk

About: Financial risk is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 11899 publications have been published within this topic receiving 231404 citations. The topic is also known as: economic risk.

Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions

Abstract: An operational macroprudential approach to financial stability requires tools that attribute system-wide risk to individual institutions. Making use of constructs from game theory, we propose an attribution methodology that has a number of appealing features: it can be used in conjunction with popular risk measures, it provides measures of institutions’ systemic importance that add up exactly to the measure of system-wide risk and it easily accommodates uncertainty about the validity of the risk model. We apply this methodology to a number of constructed examples and illustrate the interactions between drivers of systemic importance: size, the institution’s risk profile and strength of exposures to common risk factors. We also demonstrate how the methodology can be used for the calibration of macroprudential capital rules.

A Portfolio Approach to Procurement Contracts

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop a general framework for supply contracts in which portfolios of contracts can be analyzed and optimized. We focus on a multi-period environment with convex contract, spot market, and inventory holding costs. We specialize the model to the case of a portfolio consisting of option contracts. We characterize the optimal replenishment policy and show that it has a simple structure. Namely, the use of every different option contract and the spot market is dictated by a modified base-stock policy. In addition, we derive conditions to determine when an option is relatively attractive compared to other options or the spot market. Finally, we present our computational study, where we report the sensitivity of the results to the parameters of the model. Our experiments indicate that portfolio contracts not only increase the manufacturer's expected profit, but can also reduce its financial risk.

Bank Consolidation, Internationalization, and Conglomeration: Trends and Implications for Financial Risk

Abstract: This paper documents trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration with data on more than 100 countries, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. The relationship between consolidation, conglomeration and financial risk is documented using financial data on the largest 500 financial firms worldwide and on large banks in about 90 countries. We find that (a) large conglomerate firms did not exhibit levels of risk-taking lower than smaller and specialized firms in 1995, while they exhibited higher levels of risk-taking in 2000; (b) highly concentrated banking systems exhibited levels of systemic risk potential higher than less concentrated systems during the 1993–2000 period, and this relationship has strengthened during the 1997–2000 period. We outline research directions aimed at explaining why bank consolidation and conglomeration may not necessarily yield either safer financial firms or more resilient banking systems.

How risky is your company

Abstract: In boom times, it is easy for managers to forget about risk. And not just financial risk, but organizational and operational risk as well. Now there's the risk exposure calculator, a new tool that will help managers determine exactly where and how much internal risk is mounting in their companies. The risk calculator is divided into three parts: The first set of "keys" alerts managers to the pressures that come from growth. Now that the company has taken off, are employees feeling increased pressure to perform? Is the company's infrastructure becoming overloaded? And are more new employees coming on board as the company rushes to fill positions? If the answer is yes to any one of those questions, then risk may be rising to dangerous levels. The second set of keys on the calculator highlights pressures that arise from corporate culture. Are too many rewards being given for entrepreneurial risk taking? Are executives becoming so resistant to bad news that no one feels comfortable alerting them to problems? And is the company's level of internal competition so high that employees see promotion as a zero-sum game? The final set of pressures, the author says, revolves around information management. When calculating these pressures, managers should ask themselves, what was the company's complexity, volume, and velocity of information a year ago? Have they risen? By how much? How much of the time am I doing the work that a computer system should be doing? High pressure on many or all of these points should set off alarm bells for managers. To control risk, managers have four levers of control at their disposal that will show them where they need to make organizational adjustments.