Showing papers on "Fishing published in 2013"

Sea cucumber fisheries: global analysis of stocks, management measures and drivers of overfishing

Abstract: Worldwide, most sea cucumber fisheries are ineffectively managed, leading to declining stocks and potentially eroding the resilience of fisheries. We analyse trends in catches, fishery status, fishing participation and regulatory measures among 77 sea cucumber fisheries through data from recent fishery reports and fishery managers. Critical gaps in fisheries biology knowledge of even commonly targeted species undermine the expected success of management strategies. Most tropical fisheries are small-scale, older and typified by numerous (>8) species, whereas temperate fisheries are often emerging, mono-specific and industrialized. Fisher participation data indicated about 3 million sea cucumber fishers worldwide. Fisher participation rates were significantly related to the average annual yield. permanova analysis showed that over-exploited and depleted fisheries employed different sets of measures than fisheries with healthier stocks, and a non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination illustrated that a broad set of regulatory measures typified sustainable fisheries. SIMPER and regression tree analyses identified that the dissimilarity was most related to enforcement capacity, number of species harvested, fleet (vessel) controls, limited entry controls and rotational closures. The national Human Development Index was significantly lower in countries with over-exploited and depleted fisheries. Where possible, managers should limit the number of fishers and vessel size and establish short lists of permissible commercial species in multispecies fisheries. Our findings emphasize an imperative to support the enforcement capacity in low-income countries, in which risk of biodiversity loss is exceptionally high. Solutions for greater resilience of sea cucumber stocks must be embedded within those for poverty reduction and alternative livelihood options.

Contribution of marine fisheries to worldwide employment

Abstract: Marine fisheries contribute to the global economy, from the catching of fish through to the provision of support services for the fishing industry. General lack of data and uncertainty about the level of employment in marine fisheries can lead to underestimation of fishing effort and hence over-exploited fisheries, or result in inaccurate projections of economic and societal costs and benefits. To address this gap, a database of marine fisheries employment for 144 coastal nations was compiled. Gaps in employment data that emerged were filled using a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the number of direct and indirect fisheries jobs. We focused on estimating jobs in the small-scale fishing sector. We characterized small-scale fishing as (i) primarily geared towards household consumption or sale at the local level; (ii) conducted at a low level of economic activity; (iii) minimally mechanized; (iv) conducted within inshore areas; (v) minimally managed; and/or (vi) undertaken for cultural or ceremonial purposes. In total, we estimated that 260 ± 6 million people are involved in global marine fisheries, encompassing full-time and part-time jobs in the direct and indirect sectors, with 22 ± 0.45 million of those being small-scale fishers. This is equivalent to 203 ± 34 million full-time equivalent jobs. Study results can be used to improve management decision making and highlight the need to improve monitoring and reporting of the number of people employed in marine fisheries globally.

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

Abstract: In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size- and age-structures. Rebuilding the size- and age-structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size-structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (Fcur) towards an MSY reference value (FMSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so-called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.

Global marine yield halved as fishing intensity redoubles

Abstract: There is widespread concern and debate about the state of global marine resources and the ecosystems supporting them, notably global fisheries, as catches now generally stagnate or decline. Many fisheries are not assessed by standard stock assessment methods including many in the world's most biodiverse areas. Though simpler methods using widely available catch data are available, these are often discounted largely because data on fishing effort that contributed to the changes in catches are mostly not considered. We analyse spatial and temporal patterns of global fishing effort and its relationship with catch to assess the status of the world's fisheries. The study reveals that fleets now fish all of the world's oceans and have increased in power by an average of 10-fold (25-fold for Asia) since the 1950s. Significantly, for the equivalent fishing power expended, landings from global fisheries are now half what they were a half-century ago, indicating profound changes to supporting marine environments. This study provides another dimension to understand the global status of fisheries.

Is it good or bad to fish with FADs? What are the real impacts of the use of drifting FADs on pelagic marine ecosystems?

Abstract: The use of fish aggregating devices (FADs) by purse seine fisheries has come under increasing criticism for its potential deleterious impacts on tuna stocks, for high levels of by-catch and threats to the biodiversity of tropical pelagic ecosystems. Here, we review the current state of scientific knowledge of this fishing technique and current management strategies. Our intent is to encourage objective discussion of the topic and highlight areas worthy of future research. We show that catching juvenile tuna around FADs does not necessarily result in overfishing of stocks, although more selective fishing techniques would likely help obtain higher yield. Levels of non-tuna by-catch are comparable to or less than in other commercial tuna fisheries and are primarily comprised of species that are not considered threatened. Accordingly, to minimize impacts on ecosystem balance, there is merit in considering that all species captured in purse seine fisheries (excluding vulnerable species such as turtles and sharks) should be retained, but the consequences of such a measure should be carefully examined before implementation. The take of vulnerable species could be further reduced by introduction of additional mitigation measures, but their potential benefits would be limited without parallel efforts with other gears. Finally, there is no unequivocal empirical evidence that FADs represent an ‘ecological trap’ that inherently disrupts tuna biology although further research should focus on this issue. We encourage RFMOs to expand and improve their FAD management plans. Under appropriate management regimes, FAD fishing could be an ecologically and economically sensible fishing method.

Illustrating the critical role of human dimensions research for understanding and managing recreational fisheries within a social-ecological system framework.

Abstract: Effective management of recreational fishing requires understanding fishers and their actions. These actions constitute critical links between social and ecological systems that result in outcomes that feedback and influence recreational fishers' actions and the management of these actions. Although much research exists on recreational fishers and their actions, this research is often disconnected from management issues. One way to help to overcome this disconnect is to illustrate how past research on the social component of recreational fishing fits within an emerging coupled social-ecological system (SES) framework. Herein, a conceptual SES is first developed with specific attention to recreational fisheries. This SES is then used to illustrate the importance of considering human dimensions research for articulating, studying and ultimately managing key outcomes of recreational fisheries (e.g. fish population conservation, fisher well-being) using the example of harvest regulations and a brief review of past interdisciplinary research on recreational fishing. The article ends by identifying key research needs including understanding: how factors such as management rules affect the diversity of actions by recreational fishers; how governance and management approaches adapt to changing social and resource conditions; and how recreational fishers learn and share information.

A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

Abstract: Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world’s small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

The Use of Electronic Tags in Fish Research – An Overview of Fish Telemetry Methods

Abstract: An overview of electronic tags that can be used in fish research is given, including radio and acoustic transmitters, data storage tags (DST, also termed archival tags), pop-up satellite archival tags (PSAT) and passive integrated transponder tags (PIT-tag). Fish telemetry is a term used to describe the application of these methods. Typically, an electronic tag is attached to a free-swimming fish, and information on position, movements and/or measurements of environmental and physiological parameters can be recorded wirelessly by use of a mobile receiver or stationary loggers. For most methods, the fish need not to be recaptured to achieve data. However, DSTs record and store information on environmental and/or physiological parameters in the tag, and therefore need to be retrieved for downloading data. In the case of PSATs, stored data is transferred to satellites when the tag loosens from the fish and pops up to the surface, and in addition, the pop up position is recorded. The developments of telemetry methods have provided opportunities to reveal previously unknown information on fish behavior, habitat use and migrations in fresh water, estuaries, near-coastal areas and oceans, especially since extensive longterm data can be collected repeatedly from individual fish. Detailed information on fish behaviour and migrations is needed to better understand, protect and manage fishes in freshwater and marine systems. The development of successful management measures depends on knowledge of where fish reside and migrate during the day, season and year. There has been a tremendous increase in the use of electronic tagging methods, especially during the last 10-20 years. In addition to descriptive and ecological studies, the methods have been used to assess effects of for instance hydropower production, other river regulations, migration barriers, protected areas, fishing regulations, catch-and-release angling, hatchery-rearing, fish aggregating devices (FADs), water pollution and aquaculture. The main methods for attaching electronic tags to fish are 1) surgical implantation in the body cavity, 2) external attachment, and 3) gastric insertion via the mouth. Potential negative handling effects are inflammations, infections, tag expulsion, altered behavior, decreased swimming performance, reduced feeding, reduced growth and increased mortality. The catch, handling and tagging procedures should have minimal effects on the fish. If not, an anomalous behaviour caused by the tagging may be recorded instead of the natural behaviour, and the study is a failure from a scientific point of view. Furthermore, optimal anaesthetic and tagging methods are required to meet the ethical standards for use of experimental animals, and to ensure fish survival and welfare.

Impacts of fisheries bycatch on marine turtle populations worldwide: toward conservation and research priorities

Abstract: Fisheries bycatch is considered the most serious threat globally to long-lived marine megafauna (e.g., mammals, birds, turtles, elasmobranchs). However, bycatch assessments to date have not evaluated population-level bycatch impacts across fishing gears. Here, we provide the first global, multi-gear evaluation of population-level fisheries bycatch impacts for marine turtles. To compare bycatch impacts of multiple gears within and among marine turtle populations (or regional management units, RMUs), we compiled more than 1,800 records from over 230 sources of reported marine turtle bycatch in longline, net, and trawl fisheries worldwide that were published between 1990–2011. The highest bycatch rates and levels of observed effort for each gear category occurred in the East Pacific, Northwest and Southwest Atlantic, and Mediterranean regions, which were also the regions of highest data availability. Overall, available data were dominated by longline records (nearly 60% of all records), and were non-uniforml...

The Carbon Footprint of Norwegian Seafood Products on the Global Seafood Market

Abstract: Summary Greenhouse gas emissions caused by food production are receiving increased attention worldwide. A problem with many studies is that they only consider one product; methodological differences also make it difficult to compare results across studies. Using a consistent methodology to ensure comparability, we quantified the carbon footprint of more than 20 Norwegian seafood products, including fresh and frozen, processed and unprocessed cod, haddock, saithe, herring, mackerel, farmed salmon, and farmed blue mussels. The previous finding that fuel use in fishing and feed production in aquaculture are key inputs was confirmed. Additional key aspects identified were refrigerants used on fishing vessels, product yield, and by-product use. Results also include that product form (fresh or frozen) only matters when freezing makes slower transportation possible. Processing before export was favorable due to the greater potential to use by-products and the reduced need for transportation. The most efficient seafood product was herring shipped frozen in bulk to Moscow at 0.7 kilograms CO2 equivalents per kilogram (kg CO2-eq/kg) edible product. At the other end we found fresh gutted salmon airfreighted to Tokyo at 14 kg CO2-eq/kg edible product. This wide range points to major differences between seafood products and room for considerable improvement within supply chains and in product choices. In fisheries, we found considerable variability between fishing methods used to land the same species, which indicates the importance of fisheries management favoring the most resource-efficient ways of fishing. Both production and consumption patterns matter, and a range of improvements could benefit the carbon performance of Norwegian seafood products.

A Bird’s Eye View of Discard Reforms: Bird-Borne Cameras Reveal Seabird/Fishery Interactions

Abstract: Commercial capture fisheries produce huge quantities of offal, as well as undersized and unwanted catch in the form of discards. Declines in global catches and legislation to ban discarding will significantly reduce discards, but this subsidy supports a large scavenger community. Understanding the potential impact of declining discards for scavengers should feature in an eco-system based approach to fisheries management, but requires greater knowledge of scavenger/fishery interactions. Here we use bird-borne cameras, in tandem with GPS loggers, to provide a unique view of seabird/fishery interactions. 20,643 digital images (one min−1) from ten bird-borne cameras deployed on central place northern gannets Morus bassanus revealed that all birds photographed fishing vessels. These were large (>15 m) boats, with no small-scale vessels. Virtually all vessels were trawlers, and gannets were almost always accompanied by other scavenging birds. All individuals exhibited an Area-Restricted Search (ARS) during foraging, but only 42% of ARS were associated with fishing vessels, indicating much ‘natural’ foraging. The proportion of ARS behaviours associated with fishing boats were higher for males (81%) than females (30%), although the reasons for this are currently unclear. Our study illustrates that fisheries form a very important component of the prey-landscape for foraging gannets and that a discard ban, such as that proposed under reforms of the EU Common Fisheries Policy, may have a significant impact on gannet behaviour, particularly males. However, a continued reliance on ‘natural’ foraging suggests the ability to switch away from scavenging, but only if there is sufficient food to meet their needs in the absence of a discard subsidy.

Resilient recreational fisheries or prone to collapse? A decade of research on the science and management of recreational fisheries

Abstract: Are recreational fisheries resilient to harvest or prone to collapse? This paper reviews research published since that question was posed by Post et al. (2002, Fisheries 27, 6–17). A number of patterns and processes have been identified that suggest understanding the risk of collapse requires knowledge of the fishing effort response, degree of depensation in the fishery and the life history of the harvested species. Processes involving the behaviour of fish, behaviour of anglers and management responses to declining quality can all impact the degree of resilience of recreational fisheries and their risk of collapse. The spatial context of an individual fishery can be important as they are often embedded in lake districts and joined by mobile anglers so their local dynamics are not independent from other fisheries. Typical regulations that restrict the behaviour of individual anglers in open-access fisheries can provide some resilience but cannot prevent collapse if the fishing effort is too high. Many uncertainties remain related to the occurrence and intensity of the key processes and therefore adopting an adaptive experimental management approach might be the most useful approach to minimise the risk of collapse in recreational fisheries.

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Abstract: Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

Livelihood Diversity, Food Security and Resilience among the Caiçara of Coastal Brazil

Abstract: To analyze the relationships between local livelihoods and vulnerability to food insecurity, using a resilience approach, we interviewed 350 households from seven mixed-heritage Caicara communities in Paraty, Brazil. Fishing was a livelihood activity for 70 % of the households, and the main declared activity for 16 %. Fishing was combined with other activities such as day-wage jobs, tourism, agriculture, and commerce. Livelihood activities were not homogeneously distributed among communities, and a higher proportion of fishing households were found in generalist communities. Food insecurity appeared to be transitory (and not chronic), and fishing is central to food security. Small-scale fisheries cannot be seen in isolation from the diversity of activities that make up the livelihood portfolios of coastal communities. In view of rapid change in the area, pressures from protected areas, large-scale fisheries, tourism development and economic change in general, threaten the resilience of Caicara livelihoods, with implications for future food insecurity.

Fishers' knowledge identifies environmental changes and fish abundance trends in impounded tropical rivers.

Abstract: The long-term impacts of large hydroelectric dams on small-scale fisheries in tropical rivers are poorly known. A promising way to investigate such impacts is to compare and integrate the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of resource users with biological data for the same region. We analyzed the accuracy of fishers' LEK to investigate fisheries dynamics and environmental changes in the Lower Tocantins River (Brazilian Amazon) downstream from a large dam. We estimated fishers' LEK through interviews with 300 fishers in nine villages and collected data on 601 fish landings in five of these villages, 22 years after the dam's establishment (2006-2008). We compared these two databases with each other and with data on fish landings from before the dam's establishment (1981) gathered from the literature. The data obtained based on the fishers' LEK (interviews) and from fisheries agreed regarding the primary fish species caught, the most commonly used type of fishing gear (gill nets) and even the most often used gill net mesh sizes but disagreed regarding seasonal fish abundance. According to the interviewed fishers, the primary environmental changes that occurred after the impoundment were an overall decrease in fish abundance, an increase in the abundance of some fish species and, possibly, the local extinction of a commercial fish species (Semaprochilodus brama). These changes were corroborated by comparing fish landings sampled before and 22 years after the impoundment, which indicated changes in the composition of fish landings and a decrease in the total annual fish production. Our results reinforce the hypothesis that large dams may adversely affect small-scale fisheries downstream and establish a feasible approach for applying fishers' LEK to fisheries management, especially in regions with a low research capacity.

Rebuilding global fisheries: the World Summit Goal, costs and benefits

Abstract: Many of the world’s fish stocks are depleted as a result of overexploitation, pollution and habitat loss. The 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) sets a target for fisheries to maintain or restore stocks to levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) by 2015. We assessed the global stock status and found that 68% were at or above the MSY level in 2008 and that the 2015 target is unlikely to be met. We compiled data for eight indicators to evaluate the sustainability of fisheries and the gap to meet the WSSD target. These indicators show that the overall condition of global fisheries is declining, long-term benefits are being compromised, and pressures on fisheries are increasing despite fisheries policy and management actions being taken by coastal States. We develop a bio-economic model to estimate the costs and benefits of restoring overfished stocks. Our results show that the global fishing capacity needs to be cut by 36–43% from the 2008 level, resulting in the loss of employment of 12–15 million fishers and costing US$96–358 billion for buybacks. On the other hand, meeting the WSSD goal will increase annual fishery production by 16.5 million tonnes, annual rent by US$32 billion and improve biodiversity and functioning of marine ecosystems. However, progress towards rebuilding has been hindered by an unwillingness or inability to accept the short-term socio-economic consequences associated with rebuilding fisheries. Thus, there is a pressing need for integration of rebuilding plans into national political and economic decision-making.

Long-term change in a meso-predator community in response to prolonged and heterogeneous human impact

Abstract: Sharks and rays' abundance can decline considerably with fishing. Community changes, however, are more complex because of species interactions, and variable vulnerability and exposure to fishing. We evaluated long-term changes in the elasmobranch community of the Adriatic Sea, a heavily exploited Mediterranean basin where top-predators have been strongly depleted historically, and fishing developed unevenly between the western and eastern side. Combining and standardizing catch data from five trawl surveys from 1948–2005, we estimated abundance trends and explained community changes using life histories, fish-market and effort data, and historical information. We identified a highly depleted elasmobranch community. Since 1948, catch rates have declined by >94% and 11 species ceased to be detected. The exploitation history and spatial gradients in fishing pressure explained most patterns in abundance and diversity, including the absence of strong compensatory increases. Ecological corridors and large-scale protected areas emerged as potential management options for elasmobranch conservation.

Towards resilient recreational fisheries on a global scale through improved understanding of fish and fisher behaviour

Abstract: Despite recreational fisheries serving as a prime example of a coupled social–ecological system, much of the research on such fisheries has been monothematic in orientation and focused either on fisheries ecology or human dimensions. An attempt was made to break down some of the barriers to more interdisciplinary research on recreational fisheries at the 6th World Recreational Fishing Conference. The overall conclusion was that future research and management efforts should increasingly focus on the feedbacks between the interacting human and ecological components of recreational fisheries. Doing so promises to improve understanding of how recreational fisheries respond to social–ecological change. In this context, the behaviour of both fishes and humans provides an important, yet often overlooked, integrator of the ecological and social components of recreational fisheries. A better understanding of the behavioural dynamics of recreational fishers as well as exploited fishes will help predict how recreational fisheries change, evolve, adapt and reorganise through time to maintain resilience and achieve sustainability on a global scale.

Ghostnet impacts on globally threatened turtles, a spatial risk analysis for northern Australia

Abstract: As human population growth continues, so too does our waste, often with unintended consequences for wildlife. The estimated 640,000 tons of fishing gear lost, abandoned, or discarded annually exerts a large but uncertain impact on marine species. These “ghostnets” drift in the ocean and can fish unattended for decades (ghost fishing), killing huge numbers of commercially valuable or threatened species. We developed an integrated analysis combining physical models of oceanic drift with ecological data on marine turtle species distribution and vulnerability to make quantitative predictions of threat. Using data from beach cleanups and fisheries in northern Australia, we assessed this biodiversity threat in an area where high densities of ghostnets encounter globally threatened turtles. Entanglement risk is well-predicted by our model, as verified by independent strandings data. We identified a number of previously unknown high-risk areas. We are also able to recommend efficient locations for surveillance and interception of abandoned fishing gear. Our work points the way forward for understanding the global threat from marine debris and making predictions that can guide regulation, enforcement, and conservation action.

Causes and methods to estimate cryptic sources of fishing mortality.

Abstract: Cryptic, not readily detectable, components of fishing mortality are not routinely accounted for in fisheries management because of a lack of adequate data, and for some components, a lack of accurate estimation methods. Cryptic fishing mortalities can cause adverse ecological effects, are a source of wastage, reduce the sustainability of fishery resources and, when unaccounted for, can cause errors in stock assessments and population models. Sources of cryptic fishing mortality are (1) pre-catch losses, where catch dies from the fishing operation but is not brought onboard when the gear is retrieved, (2) ghost-fishing mortality by fishing gear that was abandoned, lost or discarded, (3) post-release mortality of catch that is retrieved and then released alive but later dies as a result of stress and injury sustained from the fishing interaction, (4) collateral mortalities indirectly caused by various ecological effects of fishing and (5) losses due to synergistic effects of multiple interacting sources of stress and injury from fishing operations, or from cumulative stress and injury caused by repeated sub-lethal interactions with fishing operations. To fill a gap in international guidance on best practices, causes and methods for estimating each component of cryptic fishing mortality are described, and considerations for their effective application are identified. Research priorities to fill gaps in understanding the causes and estimating cryptic mortality are highlighted.

Projected climate change and the changing biogeography of coastal Mediterranean fishes

Abstract: Aim: To forecast the potential effects of climate change in the Mediterranean Sea on the species richness and mean body size of coastal fish assemblages. Location: The Mediterranean Sea. Methods: Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we used species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of 288 coastal fish species by the middle and end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. Results: A mean rise of 1.4 °C was projected for the Mediterranean Sea by the middle of the 21st century and 2.8 °C by the end of the 21st century. Projections for the end of the century suggest that: (1) 54 species are expected to lose their climatically suitable habitat, (2) species richness was predicted to decrease across 70.4% of the continental shelf area, especially in the western Mediterranean Sea and several parts of the Aegean Sea, and (3) mean fish body size would increase over 74.8% of the continental shelf area. Small-bodied species that are not targeted by either commercial or recreational fleets presented, on average, the highest predicted decrease in geographic range size. Main conclusions: Projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea may have deleterious effects on coastal fish diversity, including a significant loss of climatically suitable habitat for endemic fish species. In addition, climate change may contribute to the loss of small and low trophic-level fishes, which may have ecosystem-wide impacts by reducing food supply to larger and higher trophic-level species. Fishing pressure is already selectively removing large-bodied species from marine ecosystems, and so fishing and climatic change might act in tandem to drive both direct and secondary extinctions.