Topic
Foreign exchange market
About: Foreign exchange market is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 6661 publications have been published within this topic receiving 153384 citations. The topic is also known as: forex & FX.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in the emerging financial markets of India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines, and found unidirectional causality from exchange rates to stock prices.
Abstract: Interactions are investigated between exchange rates and stock prices in the emerging financial markets of India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines. The motivation is to establish the causal linkages between leading prices in the foreign exchange market and the stock market; the linkages have implications for the ongoing attempts to develop stock markets in emerging economies simultaneously with a policy shift towards independently floating exchange rates. Some recent econometric techniques are applied to a bivariate vector autoregressive model using monthly observations on the IFC stock price index and the real effective exchange rate over 1985:01–1994:07. The results show unidirectional causality from exchange rates to stock prices in all the sample countries, except the Philippines. This finding has policy implications; it suggests that respective governments should be cautious in their implementation of exchange rate policies, given that such policies have ramifications on their stock markets.
501 citations
TL;DR: In this article, an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates and prices of goods is developed, based on the assumption that price changes may create a correlation between the exchange rate and the terms of trade, but this correlation cannot be exploited by the government to affect the conditions of trade by foreign exchange market operations.
Abstract: This paper develops an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates and prices of goods. Changes in relative prices of goods, due to supply or demand shifts, induce changes in exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity. These changes may create a correlation between the exchange rate and the terms of trade, but this correlation cannot be exploited by the government to affect the terms of trade by foreign exchange market operations.
495 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market using a new data base, currency futures contracts for the period 1976-1990, and implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology.
Abstract: In this paper, we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market. We utilize a new data base, currency futures contracts for the period 1976-1990, and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology. Using this approach, we generate thousands of new exchange rate series constructed by random reordering of each original series. We then measure the profitability of the technical rules for each new series. The significance of the profits in the original series is assessed by comparison to the empirical distribution of results derived from the thousands of randomly generated series. Overall, our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual. Splitting the entire 15-year sample period into three 5-year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the 1986-1990 period although profits remained positive (on average) and significant in many cases.
491 citations
TL;DR: The authors analyzes the role of momentary asset equilibrium and expectations in the determination of the exchange rate in the short run and the process of asset accumulation in determining the time path from momentary to long run equilibrium.
Abstract: This paper analyzes, by way of a dynamic model, the role of momentary asset equilibrium and expectations in the determination of the exchange rate in the short run, and the role of the process of asset accumulation in the determination of the time path from momentary to long-run equilibrium.
482 citations
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TL;DR: This paper introduced a three-part transactions dataset to test various microstructural hypotheses about the spot foreign exchange market and found that trades have both a strong information effect and a strong inventory control effect, providing support for both strands of microstructure theory.
Abstract: This paper introduces a three-part transactions dataset to test various microstructural hypotheses about the spot foreign exchange market. In particular, we test for effects of trading volume on quoted prices through the two channels stressed in the literature: the information channel and the inventory-control channel. We find that trades have both a strong information effect and a strong inventory-control effect, providing support for both strands of microstructure theory. The bulk of equity-market studies also find an information effect; however, these studies typically interpret this as evidence of inside information. Since there are no insiders in the foreign exchange market, this finding suggests a broader conception of the information environment, at least in this context.
477 citations