Topic
Forward exchange rate
About: Forward exchange rate is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 285 publications have been published within this topic receiving 19758 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: The authors compared the performance of various structural and time series exchange rate models, and found that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar /yen and trade-weighted dollar exchange rates.
3,621 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the hypothesis that the expected rate of return to speculation in the forward foreign exchange market is zero; that is, the logarithm of the forward exchange rate is the market's conditional expectation of the future spot rate, and they were able to reject the simple market efficiency hypothesis for exchange rates from the 1970s and the 1920s.
Abstract: This paper examines the hypothesis that the expected rate of return to speculation in the forward foreign exchange market is zero; that is, the logarithm of the forward exchange rate is the market's conditional expectation of the logarithm of the future spot rate. A new computationally tractable econometric methodology for examining restrictions on a k-step-ahead forecasting equation is employed. Using data sampled more finely than the forecast interval, we are able to reject the simple market efficiency hypothesis for exchange rates from the 1970s and the 1920s. For the modern experience, the tests are also inconsistent with several alternative hypotheses which typically characterize the relationship between spot and forward exchange rates.
2,258 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors find that most of the variation in forward rates is variation in premium, and the premium and expected future spot rate components of forward rates are negatively correlated, and they conclude that the forward market is not efficient or rational.
2,217 citations
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TL;DR: A survey of advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey is presented in this paper, with a focus on the relationship between uncovered interest parity and real interest parity.
Abstract: Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfolio-balance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.
1,137 citations
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TL;DR: A survey of advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey is presented in this article, with a focus on the relationship between uncovered interest parity and real interest parity.
998 citations