Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 1979"

Some recent methodologies in futures studies: A personal view

Abstract: Everyone wishes to know what the future holds; to understand the problems ahead so that they may be able to effectively manage possible future adverse events. This need to know and to understand the future is no less real now than it has ever been, and this is particularly true of groups, organizations and institutions, which, in a world of considerable flux, feel particularly vulnerable if they are not aware of the vital forces at work affecting their own fortunes. Consequently, a number of attempts have been made in the recent past to develop ways to become better informed about particular futures for specific needs. These improvements in ways of looking at the future will inevitably continue to develop. Organizational plans will become increasingly dependent upon such studies, and management, particularly R&D management, will need to be able to judge the value of such studies carried out on its behalf just as informed management attempts to assess, for example, the value of economic, market, manpower or raw materials forecasts. The intended purpose of this paper is to reduce some of the ‘futures studies’ mystique and to provide management with a feel for what can be done now as a result of forward thinking. That is, the intention is: —to introduce the concept of a futures study (why forecast?); —to suggest what it should encompass (what to ask for); —to describe some of the more useful methods together with suggested advantages and disadvantages (what are the tools?); —to recommend the type of analysis of a futures study which generates maximum effectiveness in the planning process. It is worth repeating that the emphasis in this paper is placed upon the use to which a good futures study can be put, if effectively commissioned, analysed and implemented.

World Order and Futures Studies Reconsidered

Abstract: Beginning in the 196Os, a large-scale academic movement among those involved in international studies began to take shape. It was committed to systemic social change. Many of these scholars coalesced around the rubrics of world order and alternative world futures studies. Academics interested in social change were urged to take holistic, futuristic, interdisciplinary and normative approaches to the study of global problems, which included war, political and social justice, dehumanization and ecological spoliation. While this concern for social change was creative, progressive vis-a-vis the traditional approaches to international relations, and well-intentioned, a retrospective analysis of the movement (of which this author was a part) suggests that world order and futures studies were fundamentally flawed in terms of both theory and action. This paper surveys the fundamental concepts of the world order and futures studies, and, on the ground of theoretical and practical objections to them, examines them in the light of Frederick Engels’s parallel analysis of the ‘utopian socialists’ of his day. This exercise is as much self-criticism as criticism of colleagues in world order and future studies. It is being attempted in the hope that it will stimulate a new level of discourse on the nature of theory and practice as they relate to social change. It may be mentioned here that the criticism voiced here of my own prior

Way to go and ways to get going: Futures studies for the gifted and talented

Abstract: Many of the basic principles of future studies are closely related to the objectives and approaches of gifted education. Including future studies as an integral part of a gifted education curriculum would give added meaning to these programs.