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Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 1984"


Book
01 Jan 1984

335 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A brief, informal, reconnaissance study of "foresight" activities now being conducted in the private sector and the Federal government is presented in this paper. But, the study focused on the analysis of the existing literature and discussions with over 50 people in diverse private and public sector organizations.

15 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Dec 1984-Futures
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the practicality and legitimacy of futures studies in relation to the policy sciences and the legitimacy of future studies as a relevant public policy exercise should not be at issue.

6 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Dec 1984-Futures
TL;DR: In this paper, the status of futures studies and research in Africa is considered and compared to the position two decades ago, African planning services today represent a real achievement, and can act as the basis for advanced public policy analysis.

5 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that corporate strategists must be more astute than trappers; they must adjust their companies' strategies to changing circumstances in the corporate environment and take advantage of the daily regularities in the selected victim's behavior.
Abstract: Trappers study their prey and take advantage of the daily regularities in the selected victim's behavior. Corporate strategists, however, must be more astute than trappers; they must adjust their companies' strategies to changing circumstances in the corporate environment.

5 citations



Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1984
TL;DR: In this article, Pohl and Kornbluth's Wolfbane is discussed and a step-by-step procedure for moving from the words on the page to the complexities of their socio-cultural context is discussed.
Abstract: The principal aim of this chapter is to explore some of the mechanics of analysing science fiction novels so as to reveal their social and historical character. I have chosen to discuss Pohl and Kornbluth’s Wolfbane,1 but my main concern is less the inherent interest of this novel than illustrating a possible step-by-step procedure for moving from the words on the page to the complexities of their socio-cultural context. Readers approaching the analysis of SF texts for the first time will, I hope, find it useful to reapply such a procedure for themselves until they are confident of adopting a more flexible approach without sacrificing completeness. For this reason I have spelt out some of the more laborious detail which is often only implicit in critical analyses. Moreover, since any critical method is only ever the crystallisation of theory, whether or not conscious and explicit, I have tried throughout to suggest the theoretical rationale behind the procedures and their broader theoretical implications.

2 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Feb 1984-Futures
TL;DR: This article marks the return of IF Clarke to the pages of Futures as discussed by the authors, marking the beginning of a long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques.

2 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
E. Wenk1
TL;DR: In this paper, the connections of ocean and arctic engineering to their broadest context are traced to highlight the economic, social, legal, cultural and political ramifications that increasingly season intrinsic elements of research, design and application.
Abstract: This paper traces the connections of ocean and arctic engineering to their broadest context--the economic, social, legal, cultural and political ramifications that increasingly season intrinsic elements of research, design and application. With a series of historical and anecdotal vignettes, this theme is elaborated to dramatize the sharp changes that have accompanied the interaction of technology and society generally in the last four decades. Moving from examples of the excitement of personal enlightment through discovery to the satisfaction of successful operating performance, this review concludes with four evolving challenges: updating tools of practice to incorporate notions of risk assessment and social impact; major reforms in engineering education to emphasize breadth instead of specialization; active engagement in technology-policy analysis to facilitate citizen enlightenment and foresight; and recognition that engineering ethics must parallel technical proficiency.

1 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: The role of foresight in the theory of business cycles is discussed in this article, where the survey data on agents' expectations and experts' forecasts are extracted from a survey data set.
Abstract: What is the role of foresight, and the significance of the lack of foresight under uncertainty, in the theory of business cycles ? What relevant evidence on these questions can be extracted from the survey data on agents' expectations and experts' forecasts? To provide some answers, the recent work in this area is reviewed in the perspective of economic and doctrinal history. The address proceeds from (1) a discussion of the expectational aspects of modern business cycles theories and (2) a critique of the currently dominant approaches to (3) a summary of the evidence and (4) some illustrations and implications for further analysis. Of the conclusions drawn,perhaps the most general one is that expectations matter a great deal but are not all-important. They may be rational in the sense of effectively using the limited available knowledge and information, but they are also diversified and not always self-validating or stabilizing.

1 citations