Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 1991"
TL;DR: This article deals with paradigms in futures studies, namely (1) descriptive futures research, (2) the scenario paradigm and (3) evolutionary futures research.
92 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, Roy Amara identifies new directions for futures research methodology, and focuses on validation and quality criteria for futures studies, and a set of initial criteria is outlined, such as plausibility, reproducibility, and explicitness of values and impacts.
34 citations
Book•
01 Dec 1991
TL;DR: Cornish as mentioned in this paper presents the teaching of the future futures inquiry and the state of the art past futures paradigms alternative futures, including the Future of the Earth, Wealth and Power, and War and Peace.
Abstract: Foreword by Edward Cornish Prologue: Teaching the Future Futures Inquiry The State of the Art Past Futures Paradigms Alternative Futures The Future of the Earth The Future of Wealth and Power The Future of War and Peace Epilogue: The Next Three Futures Suggested Reading Index
33 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1991
TL;DR: In this article, the Club of Rome and the Limits to Growth have been used to limit the growth of the world's population in the 1960s to the late 1980s, in order to achieve sustainable development.
Abstract: Contents: Futures studies - Environmentalism - The Club of Rome - Limits to Growth - Long term planning - Global modelling - History of ideas from the 1960s to the late 1980s - Sustainable development.
23 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors develop an empirical model for foresight studies as a tool in strategic decision-making and demonstrate how several stakeholders in a nation can be mobilized to assess emerging technologies, develop a common field of reference in judging these technologies, and coordinate the joint actions of the actors in this field.
17 citations
TL;DR: The 1991 Hawaii Judicial Foresight Congress as discussed by the authors was held in Honolulu, Hawaii, 6-8 January 1991, with a goal to contribute to the dialogue on how to have appropriate futures conferences and to present futures thinking on the US courts.
9 citations
Book•
18 Dec 1991TL;DR: The economic consequences of ageing are a case in point when it comes to solving problems by definition as discussed by the authors, and the problem of financing expenditures on social security during periods of demographic change has until now been approached in a rather pragmatic way by governments and their advisers.
Abstract: Practical questions of economic policy are sometimes solved by methods of Uncle Scrooge, in other words, by defining the problem away. The economic policy consequences of ageing are a case in point when it comes to solving problems by definition. The problem of financing expenditures on social security during periods of demographic change has until now been approached in a rather pragmatic way by governments and their advisers. The lowering of benefit levels, an increase of the retirement age, an increase of the social security premiums c.q. tax rates or simply the promotion of fertility, are all policy options which have far-reaching consequences for the intergenerational distribution of resources and economic growth. Of course, such solutions do not conform to economic principles but to principles of accounting. Foresight should be the essence of government. The principle of dynamic economic policy is that one has to make a choice between scarce means to achieve given ends over a certain planning horizon. Decisions about the choice of particular ends is not an economic subject, it belongs to the field of ethics in the case of normative questions and political science in the case of positive questions.
6 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a reappraisal of the author's mid-1970s pessimistic prognostications on global futures is presented, and the potency of human factors is re-emphasized.
3 citations
TL;DR: The main aim of the conference was to promote discussion concerning the challenges of future management and the qualifications managers will need in the future, as well as the inevitable, rapid changes in working circumstances as mentioned in this paper.
1 citations
TL;DR: The Secretariat for Futures Studies (SFZ) as mentioned in this paper was founded as an independent and non-profit research body in 1990 in Gelsenkirchen, a town of about 300 000 residents in the Ruhr District of Northrhine-Westfalia, the formerly heavy industrial 'heart beat' of the country in the North-west.
TL;DR: A World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) regional conference was held in Sofia, Bulgaria on 3-6 June 1991 as mentioned in this paper, which aimed to shape and bring forward new ideas of current changes and alternative visions of future developments in Eastern Europe.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on methodological issues in long-range societal futures studies and argue that attempts at forecasting must be based on systematic assessments of alternative outcomes and must be protected from ideological pitfalls.
TL;DR: The findings of a survey of 22 prominent US futures studies published between 1967 and 1982 are presented in this article, with common themes and divergences among the studies delineated, and the underlying reasons for these are discussed, in order to throw some light on the strengths and limitations of futures studies as a whole.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the findings of a survey conducted recently with the aim of discovering which writers and thinkers are generally regarded as the intellectual leaders in future studies, which may help in locating sources of significant new ideas about the future.