Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 1998"

Futures Studies as an Intellectual and Applied Discipline

Abstract: This article explores some of the reasons for the transition of Futures Studies (FS) from an insubstantial “perspective” to an applied discipline. It begins with an outline of the author's own starting points and continues with a brief account of critical futures studies. It reviews how this perspective was implemented in master's courses within three universities and describes aspects of the knowledge base of FS that emerged at the time. Finally, the article traces some of the links between the intellectual foundations of FS and emerging applications in a variety of organizations. It concludes that the kinds of knowledge and capability created will be increasingly useful throughout society in negotiating the turbulence ahead.

Introduction: The Future Lies Behind! Thirty Years of Teaching Futures Studies

Abstract: Since futures studies has been a worldwide serious academic and consulting activity for more than 30 years, why have people never heard of it—or at least why do they know so little about it? The author briefly outlines his own teaching and consulting experiences in futures studies since 1967 and then introduces each of the 25 authors whose essays follow in this special issue.

Fritz Zwicky, Morphologie and Policy Analysis

Abstract: Fritz Zwicky pioneered the development of morphological analysis (MA) as a method for investigating the totality of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, usually nonquantifiable problem complexes. During the past two decades, MA has been extended and applied in the area of futures studies and for structuring and analysing complex policy spaces. This article outlines the fundamentals of the morphological approach and describes recent applications in policy analysis.

Postmodern Education: A Futures Perspective

Abstract: This article reports on futures-oriented teaching and research in the United Kingdom, which derives its inspiration from the field of futures studies. The article focuses on the need for a futures ...

Pedagogy, Culture, and Futures Studies:

Abstract: Through case studies of futures workshops and courses, the importance of decolonizing the future and creating authentic alternative futures is highlighted. Futures studies, it is argued, is about u...

Agricultural holdings: hindsight and foresight

Abstract: In France, the concept of the agricultural holding is a result of a lengthy social construction in which the stages in classification and statistical work have proceeded in tune with the major political struggles and social debates of the 19th and 20th centuries. Some people argue that the “ agricultural holding ” is now just a term revived from the past for the modern “ agricultural enterprise ”. Sociologists and economists therefore need to reconsider the significance and relevance of this concept. The diversity of the ways of practising agricultural activities encountered in French households shows that the economic and social realities referred to in this concept are far too varied for its use in defining a productive sector having an institutional existence. Neither can it be used to demark the social groups that will be entitled to benefit from the support measures of agricul-tural and rural development policies. As a basic statistical unit, however the concept of the agricultural holding can provide a com-mon basic unit for measuring agricultural activity, and the land used for this activity, thereby permitting the integration of results concerning the different functions of agricultural activity (production, natural resource management, land use, socio-economic cohesion, etc.). From this angle, the statistical notion of the agricultural holding as presently defined is of increasing interest for the management of new agricultural and rural policies and for social sciences research.

Futures Studies From the Experience of a Sociologist Who Tries to Be a Futurist

Abstract: Even though many futurists have been interested, or even trained, in the social sciences, the relationship between futures studies and the social sciences has been, and still is, ambivalent, especi...

Past and Future

Abstract: Although few practicing historians consider themselves futurists, the study of the future is in effect the history of the future, a continuation of the historian's effort to reconstruct the past by projecting what may come next. Postmodernist theory, however, suggests that just as historians cannot literally reconstruct the past, so futurists cannot literally predict the future. Rather, historians engage the evidence of the past by telling stories about it; futurists, by the same token, engage whatever evidence of the past may bear upon the future by writing scenarios of times to come. The future, like the past, will consist of all people everywhere doing all the things that people do. The article concludes with examples of how the author has sought to apply these perspectives in teaching futures studies courses since 1974 in the Department of History at Binghamton University, State University of New York.

Giving Images a Chance Images of the Future as a Tool for Sociology

Abstract: Social sciences inevitably both trigger and enforce social change. However, current sociology has become more analysis oriented than action oriented. Futures studies can improve sociological thinking by its general cross-disciplinary approach, methods that emphasize alternatives and encourage participation in public discussions and decision making. The author discusses the idea of evolutionary transition as progressive differentiation toward increasing complexity that explains social change. This theory is then used to explore images of the future that arise from different interpretations of the present (Western) transition from modernity through late modernity to postmodernity and, similarly, from industrialism through late industrialism to a new epoch. The images consist of items that reflect the simultaneous existence of different and partly contradictory interpretations of reality that reflect socioeconomic and cultural change.

Technological change and organization

Abstract: Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Innovation, Capabilities and Knowledge 3. Research Procedures Induced by Non-market Variables 4. International Technology Development Structures in Multinational Firms 5. Management of Technology in Multiproduct Firms 6. Reorganizing for Knowledge Integration and Constituency 7. Rapid Technological Change and Shortening Business Horizons 8. 'Upgrading' National Systems of Innovation 9. Foresight for Research and Technology Policies 10. Cultural and Institutional Determinants of National Technological Advantage 11. Innovation, Diffusion and Political Control of Co-generation Technology in the UK Since privatization

Pavement management: a great past but what about the future?

Abstract: Pavement management has progressed from a concept in the 1960's to a process which has been implemented by many countries around the world. The reasons for this widespread success are threefold: development and application of technology within a well designed operational framework, creative individuals with foresight and agencies willing to provide support and encouragement. So the past has been a record of achievements and progress, but what about the future? It seems obvious and desirable that pavement management will see greater integration with other infrastructure management systems and with asset management in general. However, it needs to continue functioning as a distinct management system and continuing and quantum advances in technology are vital to future generations of pavement management systems.

The Challenge of Teaching Futures Studies

Abstract: When teaching futures studies, there is a tendency to focus on methodologies because they are more in demand. This article argues that futures studies teaching should also cover the conceptual and theoretical questions (including such philosophical issues as the nature of time and its unfolding). Thus, the three elements of teaching futures studies, in order, are concepts, theories, and methods. Some detail is given about the particularities of teaching futures in Europe.

Futures Praxis Consulting and Teaching Futures Studies Through the World Wide Web

Abstract: This article outlines some of the ideas, insights, and strategies arising from developing and teaching for two years a multimedia, on-line, World Wide Web futures studies course designed for intera...

Politics + Science = Futures Studies?

Abstract: The eternal truth of the future cannot, of course, be the goal of futures studies. Future is full of surprises, uncertainty, trends and trend breaks, irrationality and rationality, and it is changing and escaping from our hands as time goes by. It is also the result of actions made by innumerable more or less powerful actors. In this article, the author describes the general features of futures studies, especially in its impact on societal development and decision making. The aim is also to show that the change in societal development has brought new challenges to the theoretical and methodological aspects of futures studies. Finally, the author discusses the problem of linking scenarios of the future to social and political decision making.

Maximizing Evolvability Teaching Futures Studies at the University Level

Abstract: For teaching or consulting in the area of futures studies, the author developed an approach called the theory of evolving systems. This approach is based on the author's personal quest to understand the future in a way that avoids the arbitrary and relative nature of many futures-related activities. The evolving-systems approach is a science-based framework that enables students or clients to use their knowledge in a nested evolutionary context to discern a finite number of high-probability generic alternative futures. Furthermore, this approach enables students or clients to differentiate alternatives futures that can maximize evolvability from those that are dystopian or devolutionary.

New Zealand's Foresight Project

Abstract: How can governments best position science and technology policy while the knowledge revolution is driving profound changes in economies and societies around the world? What can small countries such as New Zealand, which account for only a tiny fraction of global science and technology investment, actually contribute to global knowledge? And what role should government play? These questions are at the heart of the Foresight Project, initiated in New Zealand last year to review priorities for public investment in research, science, and technology and to motivate strategic thinking about the future across New Zealand. The project could be a model for other small countries seeking to redefine relationships between government and industry. New Zealand has a proud tradition of research, science, and technology. Our unique biological, geological, and climatic features have required science and technology that cannot simply be transported from elsewhere in the world. In addition, contributing to the global knowledge base has been an important part of building a national capability for locally interpreting and adapting international advances. Traditionally, government funding and institutions have dominated research, science, and technology in New Zealand, and public investment still accounts for about two-thirds of total research and development. Indeed, our private sector investment is among the lowest among countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. New Zealanders also have a relatively low awareness of the benefits of science and technology, particularly its link to wealth creation, so it is vital that a public debate about the future direction of public investment in science and technology be tied to a general discussion about the role of new knowledge and technological change in meeting the needs of and creating opportunities for our society. A public debate might address questions such as these: Who is responsible for providing public services that until now have been delivered by government? What as individuals, local communities, and citizens are we obligated to provide for the greater good? Where do we draw the line between public and private responsibilities? The process we undertake to answer such questions will be as dramatic as the answers themselves. In countries like New Zealand, dominated by small firms that have difficulty realizing the benefits of investing in new ideas, governments play an important role in research and technological innovation. In the emerging knowledge economy, the role of government needs to be reconsidered. A new focus on fostering linkages and information flows and on building human capital needs to be achieved. There must be sufficient incentives to invest in knowledge creation. Governments must underpin innovation throughout all sectors of society, focusing on the needs of end users. The New Zealand Foresight Project provides a framework for various groups to think about their future and thereby define a context for the government's research, science, and technology investments. These groups—ranging from the fruit industry to local governments—are being asked four simple questions. First, describe your group's future strategic position and significance. Next, outline the key achievements or milestones that enable this position. Then, identify the new knowledge and technologies that these achievements require. Finally, review the investments required in terms of costs and benefits and articulate the expected relationship to government investments. The strategies for innovation that come out of this excercise will feed directly into the government's review of its goals and priorities for research, science, and technology investment. In the knowledge age, developing “smart” policy will depend on engaging the wider community, drawing on extensive information, and fostering new ideas about how to address goals. This is not a task to be restricted to the academically or technologically elite. Instead, we need open and public debate about policy objectives and how they will be met. This debate must include people from all perspectives to ensure that social, ethical, environmental, and economic perspectives complement the technological perspective that scientists provide. Furthermore, the policy dialogue may itself foster the interaction between scientists and end users that is sorely needed to develop innovation in countries like New Zealand. The success of the Foresight Project should therefore be judged by its impact on how various groups across New Zealand think about the future role of knowledge and technological change. It should also be judged on the basis of the associated changes in investments, partnerships, and competencies brought about to support our development as a knowledge society.

Hindsight Serving Foresight: The Role of History in Strategic Leadership.

Abstract: : The following paper explores the uses of retrospective analyses in the professional development of strategic leaders. Heretofore, the Army and other military services have stressed the employment of historical analysis to gain operational and tactical lessons learned. Even though the Army has a long tradition of drawing upon the past to gain perspectives on current issues, the process has yet to reveal guidelines and theories with respect to strategic thinking. Undoubtedly, history empowers analysis, but most publications of leadership development focus on behavior rather than the cognitive processes of the human mind. New theoretical and practical approaches to the uses of the past are needed to sharpen the decisions of strategic leaders.

Future-Oriented Complexity and Adaptive Studies (FOCAS)

Abstract: This article describes the development and research agenda of a specific variant of futures studies known as FOCAS: future-oriented complex and adaptive studies.

Planet Eaters or Star Makers? One View of Futures Studies in Higher Education

Abstract: For the author, the avocation of futures studies has been a personal journey, which he describes in this article. He then posits a conundrum: the possibility of humanity's role in its own destruction, on one hand, or human transcendence, on the other hand (planet eaters or star makers). The roles of driving forces and theories of social change are emphasized, especially the role of technology innovation in social change. Other “tsunamis of change” are discussed, including economic and environmental change and the status of women. The author's focus on alternative futures methodologies is covered in some detail, in particular, popular societal images of the future. His preference for either a “sane, humane, and ecological” future or a high-tech future is described. The author concludes with a discussion of the changing nature of higher education students and the challenges facing both education and the human species.

A Journey to the Future

Abstract: Drawing on the author's experience as a geographer, town planner, and now futurist, an eclectic mix of approaches to and theories of the future, many of which are more implicit than explicit, is developed. Among the most important are aspects of systems, chaos, and complexity theories. Two important concepts—paradox and a learning approach—provide important themes to the future. These ideas are summed up in the philosophy of the master's degree in foresight and futures studies at Leeds Metropolitan University.

Developing simulation models with policy relevance: The implications of recent UK reforms for emergent scientific disciplines

Abstract: Recent changes in the science and technology policies of a number of European countries are driven by the belief that a shift of academic activities towards more market-orientated research will increase national economic performance and prosperity. In the UK this has led to a move away from a predominantly peer review based funding system to one that explicitly incorporates industrial and political objectives. The central plank of the new policy regime is the UK Foresight Programme (previously Technology Foresight Programme). Its aims are two-fold. One objective is to identify opportunities where government involvement in R&D, and the science underpinning this, can enhance wealth creation. Another objective is to establish better communications and networks between science and industry — to affect the national innovation system — and thereby influence the behaviour of academic scientists through closer links. Other aspects of the reforms include the reorganisation of academic funding councils to include greater industrial representation, and the introduction of a ‘Research Assessment Exercise’ (RAE) employing various performance indicators to rank the research capabilities of different academic departments and institutions.

Creative knowledge work and interaction design

Abstract: The main aim of the research presented in this thesis is to inform the design of interactive computer systems for supporting creative knowledge work. Research into creativity and knowledge work has been explored and used to develop a criteria modelling approach. The particular contribution of the author's work is the drawing together of that research and applying the findings to interaction design. The publications were selected on the basis of how well they represent the main outcomes of the work. The journey from prescribing system requirements and design goals to framing the system design process in terms of evaluation criteria may be traced through the papers presented. Interest in creativity and the role of computer technology in creative tasks has recently increased. A number of national initiatives have been set in motion in the LJK, beginning in December 1996 with the Initiative for National Action on Creative Technologies, the Creative Media Initiative: Technology Foresight, Department of Trade and Industry, National Endowment for Science and Technology in the Arts (NESTA) and the People and Computers Programme, of the Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC). Thus, the author's involvement in creativity research and computer support is proving to be timely. Amongst her recent initiatives is Creativity and Cognition, an international symposium which brings together creative people in the arts with technologists and scientists. The thesis is divided into three parts : themes and outcomes, methodology and case studies. A criteria-based modelling approach is presented which has evolved from earlier models that represent key elements of creativity and knowledge work. A model of creative knowledge work is proposed and categories of criteria identified. Underpinning the main outcomes are the case studies which were carried out in industry/academic collaborative projects. The findings were considered in relation to other studies. The thesis presents an approach to computer systems design and development that directly links the requirements definition to the application of evaluation criteria. These criteria are based upon the characteristics of the cognitive style and working practices of creative knowledge workers.

Technology foresight in its science and technology policy context in Spain

Abstract: This paper is part of a TSER project, "Foresight as tool for managing the innovation and the flows of knowledge", funded by the EU.