Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2003"

A generic foresight process framework

Abstract: A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.

From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany

Abstract: The definitions of forecasting vary to a certain extent, but they all have the view into the future in common. The future is unknown, but the broad, general directions can be guessed at and reasonably dealt with. Foresight goes further than forecasting, including aspects of networking and the preparation of decisions concerning the future. This is one reason why, in the 1990s, when foresight focused attention on a national scale in many countries, the wording also changed from forecasting to foresight. Foresight not only looks into the future by using all instruments of futures research, but includes utilizing implementations for the present. What does a result of a futures study mean for the present? Foresight is not planning, but foresight results provide ‘information’ about the future and are therefore one step in the planning and preparation of decisions. In this paper, some of the differences are described in a straightforward manner and demonstrated in the light of the German foresight process ‘Futur’. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight

Abstract: Part 1: Aspects of Futures Enquiry 1. A 21st Century Agenda 2. Are There Futures Beyond Dystopia? 3. Professional Standards in Futures Work Part 2. The Case Against Hegemony 4. Three Pop Futurist Texts 5. Perils of Breadth American Style Part 3. Expanding and Deepening a Futures Frame 6. Beyond the Mundane 7. Changing Methods and Approaches in Futures Studies Part 4. Futures Studies and the Integral Agenda 8. Transcending Flatland 9. A New Framework for Environmental Scanning 10. Knowledge Creation, Futures Methods and the Integral Agenda 11. Towards Integral Futures Part 5. Social Learning Through Applied Foresight 12. Futures Studies to Social Foresight 13. Emergence of Futures into the Educational Mainstream 14. Creating and Sustaining Second Generation Institutions of Foresight 15. Foresight in a Social Context Part 6. Strategies and Outlooks Conclusion: The Dialectic of Foresight and Experience 16. A 'Great Transition' or Many? 17. Futures Studies as a Civilizational Catalyst

Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level: the UK experience

Abstract: A main reason for the popularity of national technology foresight exercises over the last decade has been their promise of allowing emerging generic technology areas to be identified and prioritized for resource-allocation purposes. Yet descriptions of the conduct of such exercises tend to be superficial, providing few clues to those wanting to undertake similar exercises. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme as an example, this paper sets out to describe the processes used to obtain a list of prioritized generic ‘themes’. We show that several difficult choices have to be made, often requiring an assessment of opposing and synergistic tendencies. In the case of the UK Programme, a number of decisions seemed to be taken without adequate regard to some of the consequences. This resulted in the identification of generic themes that were, for the most part, subsequently ignored. This paper sets out to explain how this state of affairs came about, and points to possible lessons for those intending to embark upon similar exercises. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multicriteria Methods for Technology Foresight

Abstract: In recent years, many countries have carried out foresight exercises to better exploit scientific and technological opportunities. Often, these exercises have sought to identify ‘critical’ or ‘key’ technologies or, more broadly, to establish research priorities. In this paper, we consider the potential of multicriteria decision-making methods in this kind of priority-determination and examine the limitations of these methods in the foresight context. We also provide results from a combined evaluation and foresight study where multicriteria methods were deployed to support the shaping of research and technology development activities in the Finnish forestry and forest industry. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evolving foresight in a small transition economy

Abstract: Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An integrated view of foresight: integrated foresight management model

Abstract: The use of foresight as a tool in policy and strategic decision making increased especially in the last decade of the twentieth century in order to enhance competitiveness and innovation of nations, regions, corporations and even individuals. Coupled with this development a lot of different definitions which partly include part of the others emerged in the literature. However, it was observed that none of these definitions were capable enough to represent an integrated and holistic view about the impact of foresight on the management of the future. In this article, the integrated foresight management model is introduced which is based on the integrated management model but enriched by a knowledge‐people‐system‐organisation framework. The current list of definitions was tabulated in this new model and the vacancies in the model were filled out. This integrated foresight management model can help practitioners in designing national, regional or corporate programs in developing necessary organisational structures, deliverables and behaviours on policy, strategy and operational levels of management.

Developing futures for agriculture in the Netherlands: a systematic exploration of the strategic value of foresight

Abstract: Science and Technology Foresight (STF) is an interactive and systematic exploration of future dynamics of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying and supporting viable strategies and actions for stakeholders. In comparison to futures studies and forecasting, the literature on foresight has paid little attention to its actual strategic value. In this paper we review the 1995-1999 foresight programme of the Dutch National Council for Agricultural Research, and evaluate some key dimensions of the foresight process, including the selection and range of participants, the immediate impact of interactive tools such as workshops and the ultimate effect on the strategic thinking in the agricultural sector. The evaluation indicates that strategic thinking in the Dutch agricultural sector has improved. The paper concludes with suggestions for monitoring and evaluation of foresight that may increase the understanding of foresight's strategic value.

Islam, Postmodernism and Other Futures: A Ziauddin Sardar Reader

Abstract: Introduction: the Other Futurist 1. Rethinking Islam 2. Reconstructing the Muslim Civilisation 3. Permanence and Change in Islam 4. The Shariah as a Problem Solving Methodology 5. Islam and Nationalism 6. Paper, Printing and Compact Discs 7. Reformist Ideas and Muslim Intellectuals: The Demands of the Real World II Postmodernism 8. When the Pendulum Comes to Rest 9. Walt Disney and the Double Victimisation of Pocahontas 10. Christian-Muslim Relations in the Postmodern Age 11. Total Recall: Aliens, Others and Amnesia in Postmodern Thought 12. Bosnia and the Postmodern Embrace of Evil 13. Postmodern(ising) Quawwali 14. The End of Civilisation? III Other Futures 15. The Problem of Futures Studies 16. Asian Cultures: Between Programmed and Desired Futures 17. Other Futures: Non-Western Cultures in Futures Studies 18. Medicine in Multicultural Society 19 Beyond Development: An Islamic Perspective 20. What Chaos? What Coherence? -Across the River I called Bibliography : Ziauddin Sardar - A Working Bibliography by Gail Boxwell Index

Foresight – using scenarios to shape the future of agricultural research

Abstract: In the year 2000, the Agricultural Research Business Unit (ARBU) of the Swiss Federal Office of Agriculture (FOA) decided to carry out a foresight process. Foresight means taking a systematic look at the future in order to be able to draw conclusions about actions taken or not taken in the present. Foresight is now best practise and is applied internationally by a growing number of countries and organisations, particularly in the areas of research and development, regional planning and business planning. The scenario technique seemed to us to be a suitable way of tackling the assignment. Over recent months we held a total of four scenario workshops, each of several days. Participants included people from a wide area connected with agricultural research together with representatives of related social fields. The result was two very different, but internally consistent scenarios (alternative ideas of the future). Based on the two scenarios developed, we drew up a master guideline with concrete measures fit to face the future. The results show that as far as organisational measures are concerned, staff motivation and training are key factors. With regard to technical measures, much attention is focused on the topic of food safety and health. It is now up to decision makers to determine the extent to which they accept and implement the recommendations of foresight in strategic business planning.

Identifying Critical Technologies in the United States: a Review of the Federal Effort

Abstract: The United States government has not sponsored technology foresight as it has been defined and practised by governments in Europe, Japan and elsewhere in the world. [Foresight has been described in many places, but the original concept, as far as the authors are aware, was proposed by Martin and Irvine (1989).] [Different approaches to identifying important technologies is summarized in Wagner (1997).] Instead, the US government sponsored a parallel effort called ‘critical technologies identification’ between 1989 and 1999. This paper describes the critical technologies movement in the United States and explores why critical technologies identification was limited in its ability to capture the attention of US government officials and other decision-makers. The authors suggest possible alternative futures for foresight in the United States. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the moral impediments to foresight action

Abstract: Why is foresight research often unable to create foresight actions? This paper explores whether an individual’s psychological development could be a factor. It employs the work of Jane Loevinger as a basis for exploring this hypothesis. It also examines the findings of the Global Lookout Panel which identified the factors needed for successful implementation of futures research.

Challenging futures studies to enhance EU’s participatory river basin management

Abstract: Can the field of futures studies help advance long-term participatory management of river basins, which has been prompted by the latest European Water Framework Directive? This question will be addressed in the present paper from a theoretical and conceptual point of view. Futures studies could help to meet two important process requirements of the Framework directive: the consideration of the long term and the involvement of all interested parties (participation). Conceptually, participatory futures studies provides sufficient originalities, which will be discussed in the paper. The number of practical cases is still rather limited, but growing. An inventory of cases shows already a large diversity in terms of participation as well as its place and ambition in the decision-making process.

Time Travelling: Organisational Foresight as Temporal Reflexity

Abstract: No abstract avaliable.

History, purposes, and knowledge

Abstract: Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. This book summarizes and expands contributions of futurists to the envisioning power and well-being of humanity. Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field. Foundations of Futures Studies fulfills Bell's five main purposes for writing this two-volume effort: (1) to show that futures studies, like other fields from anthropology to zoology, exists as an identifiable sphere of intellectual activity; (2) to create a teaching instrument that can be used as a basic text for core courses in futures studies; (3) to futurize the thinking of specialists in other disciplines; (4) to contribute to the further development and improvement of futures studies; and (5) to provide tools to empower both ordinary people and leaders to act in ways that create better futures for themselves and their societies. Bell maintains that despite its sometimes doomsday rhetorical style and widespread use by special interests, futures studies offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of our everyday lives. It will appeal to all interested in futures studies, as well as sociologists, economists, political scientists, and historians.

Creating imaginable futures: using human-centered design strategies as a foresight tool

Abstract: Corporations as well as private or public institutions all need to plan for the future, but the difficulty of anticipating the long-term effects of current decisions is well known.This paper explores how design research methods and strategic design can strengthen a foresight and innovation process by enhancing scenarios of the future with the visual, the spatial, and the experiential.The case study is based on two recent design foresight initiatives, Macrowave and Project F, that Whirlpool Europe, a leading manufacturer and marketer of major domestic appliances, carried out as a multidisciplinary effort to use design strategy and user experience research in shaping its business policy for the next ten years.Results from these projects show that by using design to create tangible representations of future product solutions, the company was able to stimulate interest, buy-in, and support internally, as well as to open up a more sustainable dialogue with all the stakeholders involved in its foresight strategy and decision-making.

The management of technological innovation: lessons from case studies in the UK food and drink industry

Abstract: This paper presents a series of case studies in the UK food and drink industry, undertaken under the aegis of the UK Government's Foresight Programme, which show the many and varied ways in which firms have been innovative in their use of technology. The sector is characterised with low research and development expenditure but it is apparent that there are many ways in which firms are being effective innovators that do not involve having dedicated R&D resources. The aim of the Foresight Programme is to highlight such activity and use 'good practice' models to encourage more innovation and uptake of technology across this, and other sectors of the UK economy. The conclusions from the current paper are that there are potentially many positive returns from looking beyond the firm for answers and to seeking out support for innovation from non-commercial organisations such as universities and research institutions, regardless of the source of the driver for innovation. However, what is central to the success of such activity is the existence of a culture of innovation and support mechanisms and structures to encourage it within a long-term strategy.

Evaluating Foresight and Lessons for its Future Impact, The Third Generation Foresight and Prioritization in Science and Technology Policy

Abstract: In the array of strategic policy approaches available to the policymaker, evaluation and foresight are often grouped together, with the simple distinction being made that evaluation is looking backwards at what has occurred and foresight looking forward at possible futures. The two approaches are not so easily separated as most evaluations include some form of formative perspective on the future and often have to consider the future implications of the measures they seek to assess. In turn, foresight activity generally needs to be informed by a thorough understanding of the past and present. However, the object of this paper is to turn one instrument upon the other – to examine how we might go about evaluating foresight and what conclusions that might lead us to in terms of the future of foresight.

Technology foresight: Philosophy and principles

Abstract: SummaryA number of strategic planning tools can contribute to building links between government, academia and business and to identifting priority areas for investment. Forecasting tools rely on trend data extrapolations or application of models to develop a unique future. They assume that the future is an extension of the present and that the economy, society and technology will continue in a steady pattern. The risks associated with unforeseen events are usually minimized or not considered.The Third Generation definition of Foresight by APEC CTF in Bangkok proposes that: “Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of science, technology, society and the economy, and their interactions, in order to promote social, economic and environmental benefit”. Economic, social and cultural contexts of different countries and of different industries can influence the choice of Foresight methodology used; combinations of methodologies can be more effective, e.g. scenario and Delphi. The experienc...

From critique to cultural recovery: Critical futures studies and casual layered analysis [Australian Foresight Institute (AFI) Monograph Series 2003, No. 2]

Abstract: Critical futures studies is not about the careers of a few scholars, rather it is about projects that transcend the narrow boundaries of the self. This biographical monograph examines the life and work of Richard Slaughter and Sohail Inayatullah.

Foresight in a research institution : a critical review of two exercises

Abstract: Foresight is a powerful tool for imagining possible futures, for raising public awareness, for helping decision-making and addressing questions related to the relationship between science and society. In this article we make a critical analysis of two foresight exercises organized by a research institution. A precise description of the exercises conducted on the futures of the cocoa commodity chain and the hevea commodity chain helps to understand the possible processes of a foresight exercise, what foresight can achieve and what kinds of difficulties can occur. From these experiences, proposals are made to facilitate the development of strategic intelligence in a research institution and improve the linkages between foresight, evaluation and programme formulation. The role of foresight in transforming knowledge and in pushing a closed system into a political arena is also shown. (Resume d'auteur)

Green Technology Foresight as Instrument in Governance for Sustainability

Abstract: There is increasing focus on foresight exercises as a tool in public governance of research and industrial innovation systems. Technology foresight has in recent years been carried out at the European level as well as in many individual countries e.g. Austria, France, UK, The Netherlands, Greece, and the Czech Republic. Technology foresight can be defined as systematic analysis and discussion about possible technology futures. The activities are in many cases set up as an input to research and technology policy and prioritisation, often with close connections to industrial policy and innovation policy. Apart from governmental institutions, innovation and engineering supporting institutions e.g. associations of engineers in Germany, Sweden, and Denmark have engaged in establishing technology foresight activities. Also people in the fields of technology studies and technology assessment are discussing technology foresight at present.

Teaching Futures Studies: From Strategy To Transformative Change

Abstract: In this short piece, I describe my pedagogy in futures studies, based on teaching it in numerous countries (New Zealand, Pakistan, Australia, Andorra, Thailand, Malaysia, the United States, Taiwan, for example), in numerous settings (government agencies, the University, non-governmental organizations, corporations, professional associations) and in short one-day courses, week long courses, and semester long courses. My pedagogical approach is based on teaching about the future (data, trends, litany, for example) and teaching for the future (civilizational challenges, the necessity to decolonize the future) as well teaching in the future (living the future one prefers, as well as possible). My theoretical framework consists of empirical, interpretive, critical and action research approaches. What I teach is based on the following: (1) the main pillars of futures studies; (2) ways that the future can be used; and (3) mapping and change methods.; ;

International foresight’s contribution to globalisation

Abstract: This paper presents and discusses the APEC Center for Technology Foresight’s experiences with its first five international foresight projects. The projects are described in some detail to illuminate the kinds of topics addressed, the rationale for their selection and the kinds of conclusions which emerged. The impact of the projects on policy is considered, and important additional benefits are demonstrated, especially their contribution to the creation of a “forward‐thinking” culture among scientists and policy‐makers. Thus, the projects are seen to address critical issues of regional and global concern and, at the same time, to build foresight capacity within the Asia‐Pacific region.

Foresight: learning from the future

Abstract: Universities continue to undergo a process of’ transformation as their purpose, their relevance and the way their work is carried out is challenged. The increasingly global marketplace for higher education requires a perspective very different to that provided by traditional strategic planning. What will be the impact of transformation and globalisation on the university as an organisation? How should universities respond to position themselves for the future, 10-20 years hence? And how should individual universities plan for the future? Foresight is a process which allows people in an organisation to develop a coherent forward view and to imagine, explore and assess a range of possible futures. It is not about prediction, but it is about informing strategy. Foresight is used extensively by both business and governments across the world including the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Japan, German;’ and Australia. In education, foresight is manifested in academic programs in futures studies and in scenario planning. Thinking about the future is not new —foresight is an innate human capacity and we all do it to some degree already Foresight seeks to tap into these existing capacities to inform organisational planning and to use the outcomes in organisationally useful ways. This paper discusses how foresight can inform strategy and reports on how foresight is being introduced into strategy processes at Swinburne University of Technology Initial implementation is through the use of scenarios within a framework of a broader educational process designed to introduce the organisation to foresight, its purpose, methodologies and benefits. The paper will provide information about the process, the results to date and, perhaps most importantly the challenges and surprises encountered in introducing an approach which sounds a bit too much like crystal ball gazing.