Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2005"

Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight

Abstract: Scenarios, as a prime technique of future studies, have long been used by government planners, corporate managers and military analysts as powerful tools to aid in decision making in the face of uncertainty. The idea behind them is to establish thinking about possible futures which can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers’ thinking about different possibilities. Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point - they have become extremely popular. This paper attempts to shed light on differences in scenario approaches. It will describe the origin of scenarios and the development of different understandings and purposes for managers. Categories are developed to compare the different ways scenarios are performed. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches are analysed.

Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight

Abstract: Scenarios, as a prime technique of future studies, have long been used by government planners, corporate managers and military analysts as powerful tools to aid in decision making in the face of uncertainty. The idea behind them is to establish thinking about possible futures which can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers' thinking about different possibilities. Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point - they have become extremely popular. This paper attempts to shed light on differences in scenario approaches. It will describe the origin of scenarios and the development of different understandings and purposes for managers. Categories are developed to compare the different ways scenarios are performed. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches are analysed.

Questioning the future : methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation

Abstract: Futures studies is the systematic study of possible, probable and preferable futures including the worldviews and myths that underlie each future. Futures studies has moved from external forces influencing the future–astrology and prophesy–to structure (historical patterns of change, of the rise and fall of nations and systems) and agency (the study and creation of preferred images of the future). Futures studies have been eagerly adopted by planning departments in organisations and nations. Yet there are clear differences between planning and futures framework. Planning seeks to control and close the future, while futures studies seek to open up the future, moving from the 'likely' future to alternative futures. This book is divided into two main sections: 1. The first section explores futures studies–approaches, methodology, epistemology, trends as well as case studies in the field. 2. The second section focuses on futures studies and action learning, developing a new focus that that combines futures studies and action learning, anticipatory action learning. The ways in which the future can be used to transform organisations is articulated in this section.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios : A report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Abstract: Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to predict the future, forecasts and what-if scenarios are of interest. If the user wants to think in terms of several possible futures, perhaps in order to be able to adapt to several different types of outcomes, explorative scenarios may be useful. If the user wants to search for scenarios fulfilling specific targets, and maybe link this to actions that can be taken towards the visions, normative scenarios should be the choice. Those three approaches to scenario studies are different. By emphasising the user's perspective to scenario studies, we have argued that the choice of scenario category is not only a question of the character of the studied system. Instead, the user's world view, perceptions and aim with the study can be even more important for the choice of approach.

Futures Thinking of Social Foresight

Abstract: This publication provides teachers and students with a practical overview of futures studies. It also acts as a source book for teachers and others looking for activities and material that will help to develop futures literacy in their students. The long-term goal is that of creating social foresight. To these ends it offers a tapestry of sections that weave patterns via ideas and practical action. There are five main sections: 1. Mapping Futures Studies – Key concepts 2. Context and Applications 3. Futures Concepts and Related Techniques 4. Methods 5. Futures Thinking for Social Foresight. In addition to these practical and user-friendly sections, there are a number of ‘reflections’ or short pieces that invite deeper consideration. In addition there are numerous diagrams and figures, many of which have been produced especially for this publication. Overall, Futures Thinking for Social Foresight provides an accessible and comprehensive introduction to, and overview of, some of the best thinking and most accessible options available in futures studies and applied foresight. It can be used with students of all ages. [Book Synopsis]

Foresight in innovation policy: Shared visions for a science park and business–university links in a city region

Abstract: The paper describes the process and outcomes of an exercise that used the ‘success scenario’ methodology to develop a shared vision of the future of business-university linkages in the city region of Manchester. The aim was to link the strategies of the four universities in the area (and in particular those of the two research universities that were in the process of merging) with the city's own self-vision of its future as a ‘Knowledge Capital’. The resulting report presented a scenario of what success would look like in 2008 in five dimensions: infrastructure, human resources, university missions, inward investment, and networking. The exercise has had a significant impact on regional strategy. The paper considers the design factors involved in gaining this level of action commitment from a foresight activity.

Foresight as a Governance Concept at the Interface between Global Challenges and Regional Innovation Potentials

Abstract: In recent years, new regionally based strategy-building processes emerged at the interface between public policy and the social coordination of collective action. Foresight as a governance process to stimulate regional innovation and strengthen the regional economic system against global competition became a popular concept. Based on the experiences of a strategy-building process in the Italian autonomous province of Trento, it is the objective of this paper to sketch recent theoretical and political developments regarding multi-actor and multi-level governance and policy concepts at the regional level.

Complexity theory for organisational futures studies

Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to make an assessment of the value and veracity that complexity theory makes as a “new” approach to futures thinking, and the implications that the approach holds for futures studies.Design/methodology/approach – There are three sections. In the first, the notion of complexity theory is explained and its robustness considered, leading to a commentary on its status as a theory. In the second section, the applications of complexity approaches to change and futures thinking are examined, including its perspective on forecasting and scenario analysis. The final section comments on the compatibility of complexity theory and the relevance of conventional analytical forecasting techniques.Findings – Complexity thinking implies that the causes of events cannot be known and that forecasting and scenario planning are doomed to failure. However, this perspective assumes that complexity has achieved status as a theory, a possibility which is rejected in this analysis.Practical implications ...

The targeted and unforeseen impacts of foresight on innovation policy: the eFORESEE Malta case study

Abstract: The paper assesses the impacts of a foresight exercise carried out in Malta in 2002–2004. An evaluation framework is applied which seeks to account for the dynamic and possibly turbulent environment of an accession country's emergent innovation system and to capture and assess those effects of foresight potentially extending well beyond those initially targeted. Three foresight pilots are described, with an emphasis upon an ICT and Education Pilot, and used to illustrate that in addition to targeted effects, important changes were stimulated in terms of tackling broader challenges related to the socio-cultural context. These included the engagement of a broader range of stakeholders in the innovation system and the generation of sustainable policy learning processes. It is concluded that an evaluation framework for foresight should be sensitive to these unforeseen process benefits which have broader societal impacts, even if the lines of attribution are blurred and not easy to trace.

Elucidating public perceptions of environmental behavior: a case study of Lake Lanier

Abstract: Participation of stakeholders in stewardship of the aquatic environment, including participation from members of the general public, has become much more widespread than was the case a decade or so ago. With this shift, from a former predominantly technocratic stance to something of a democratic stance on the style of management, it becomes important to elucidate public perceptions of environmental behavior. The paper examines this issue: from a rather specific perspective, where the role of time is significant; with a specific purpose in mind—for defining illustrative stakeholder aspirations for the future, whose plausibility is to be assessed against a computational model of lake behavior; and for a specific case study, Lake Lanier in the Chattahoochee watershed of Georgia, USA. Perturbations and variation in the behavior of the aquatic environment span many time frames, from the very short-term response associated with storms, infrastructure failure, transient pollution events, and so on, to the much longer-term, for instance, the biogeochemical ‘ageing’ of a lake over many decades and more. Our analysis is devoted to data from a survey of stakeholder imagination and perceptions of how the future state of Lake Lanier may evolve in the relatively short term (2–5 years) and in the long term, defined as 25+ years (the span of a generation). Overall, stakeholders are pessimistic and fear that things will be worse in the longer term. Guided largely by thinking on the perspectives of the social solidarities of Cultural Theory, extraction and analysis of sub-samples of the survey responses show that this outlook over the two frames of time is persistent, irrespective of what are, in principle, rather different ‘global’ attitudes towards the man-environment relationship. Of interest inter alia to the foresight generating procedure, by which the ‘reachability’ of stakeholder-derived futures for the lake is to be assessed using a computational model of the relevant parts of the science base, is the question of whether the same small number of priorities for further research on lake behavior is robust in the face of the rich variety of aspirations for the future inevitable in a democratic community of stakeholders.

Perceptions of risk in cyberspace

Abstract: Sociology, information and computer sciences, communications, and economics are among the perspectives of 15 papers commissioned by the British government's Foresight project on Cyber Trust and Crime prevention. The project was charged with exploring the application and implications of new generations of information and communication technologies in selected areas that are expected to present future opportunities and challenges for crime prevention. They consider possible drivers of the evolution of cyberspace, opportunities created by innovations in technology, threats and barriers to cyberspace development, and the feasibility of various crime prevention measures.

Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight Programmes

Abstract: This report, prepared for the ForSociety ERANET project, addresses a need to develop a common language and approach in comparing national foresight programmes. An appropriate terminology and methodology is particularly important, as foresight activities in various countries are characterised by a high level of diversity of structures, as well as varying levels of maturity, intensity, and efforts. This is often based on a diversity of perception and understanding of the role of foresight, linked to differing country context and approach. A meaningful comparison of foresight depends on a deeper understanding of the background to the evolution of foresight in each country and the template developed in this report is aimed at providing this level of detail. The report is organised in three parts: (1) the underlying concepts and framework for benchmarking – presenting (a) an overview of evolutionary economics of innovation, as a theoretical background, (b) a taxonomy of foresight programmes, as well as (c) the concept of intelligent benchmarking –; (2) a template for individual programme descriptions, together with (3) a glossary of key terms. The report claims that mechanistic or naive benchmarking is likely to produce misleading policy conclusions. Intelligent benchmarking – learning by comparison, taking into account the broader context – is a more promising way forward. There is no ‘one best way’, and thus actual foresight programmes should not be benchmarked against an ‘ideal’, ‘optimal’ or ‘best practice’ design of foresight. They can be benchmarked against 3-4 ‘ideal types’ of future-oriented programmes, and this can lead to meaningful methodological and policy lessons.

How Do We Make Sense of the Future? An Analysis of Futures Research Methodology - V2.0

Abstract: This paper focuses on how to create value and meaning for users of the AC/UNU Millennium project ”Futures Research Methodology V-2.0” report. Sensemaking is presented as a possible framework for achieving this objective, and supplements the efforts already invested in this direction by the ”Futures Research Methodology V 2.0”. The rationale for this supplement will also be presented. When applied the ”Futures Research Methodology V-2.0” shows, in general, some interesting features characteristic of the implementation of knowledge systems. In particular, the emergence of effects that are beyond the initial but not the final scope of the system. Sensemaking addresses the challenge of understanding and retrieving such dissipation from the knowledge system, and aims to bring it within a manageable range. In this way the article particularly addresses the shift that results from understanding and managing complexity. It puts forth a demonstration of these effects on futures research methods, and shows how foresight and hindsight may be used to gain insight into the present.

Futuring in the European Chemical Industry

Abstract: With the beginning of the new millennium there seems to be growing interest in foresight and futures studies. What was once seen as an intuitive skill practised by individuals with more or less success has grown into a coherent body of techniques and knowledge increasingly described as futuring and practised by think tanks and professional futurists around the world. It is therefore no surprise that these methodologies are also used in the chemical industry in order to cope with the growing uncertainty and volatility this industry has to deal with. More exceptionally, in the last couple of years different independent industry - wide initiatives were started to evaluate the future of the chemical industry. While in the US the focus was on technology there was in Europe a broader perspective. The European Chemical Marketing & Strategy Association analysed the future success factors, the UK initiative developed a vision for a competitive chemical industry in the UK and the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) developed different alternative scenarios in order to objectify the dialogue with the EU Authorities. Despite the differences in the approach there is common learning and the understanding that industry-wide futuring is a valid step in order to create a sustainable future.

Market Foresight Capability: Determinants And New Product Outcomes

Abstract: To achieve and maintain a superior competitive position, firms must develop market sensing capability-the ability to sense events and trends in markets ahead of competitors (Day 1994a). According to Day, in firms with superior market sensing capability, "the processes for gathering, interpreting, and using market information are more systematic, thoughtful, and anticipatory than in other firms" [emphasis added]. Although Day asserted that market orientation captures the essence of a market sensing capability, researchers have suggested that market orientation, by itself, does not provide the requisite ability to develop competitive advantage because of its focus on detecting rather than anticipating market trends. While prior research, most notably pertaining to market orientation, has addressed the detection of current market trends, a gap in our knowledge remains regarding the ability to anticipate future market conditions. This research seeks to address this lacuna by exploring a firm's market foresight capability, defined as the organizational capability that allows the firm to anticipate emerging shifts in the market before they are evident to competitors. Organizations possessing superior market foresight capability derive a multitude of benefits from having greater insight into future market conditions. These benefits include the ability to determine which future market trends warrant further exploration and exploitation, the identification of critical resources that will be needed in the future, and-of primary interest in this dissertation-the ability to develop new products that meet customer needs in the future. This research seeks to better inform managers as to the organizational characteristics that enhance the firm's ability to anticipate future markets by developing and testing a model of the antecedents and new product outcomes of a firm's market foresight capability. The constructs selected as determinants of market foresight capability are supported by dynamic capability theory, which focuses on the organization's information processes, learning culture, and coordination/integration influences that elevate lower-level capabilities of individuals and teams to an organization-level or dynamic capability. The organizational information processes that are hypothesized to positively impact market foresight capability include active scanning, market experimentation, and lead user collaboration. The impact of information processes on market foresight capability is contingent on an organization's learning culture (future orientation and learning orientation) and interdepartmental connectedness, which influence the coordination and integration of information between organizational actors. A firm's potential for long-term competitive advantage lies in using the insights resulting from its market foresight capability to create advantageous resource configurations. To create valuable resource configurations, the firm with superior market foresight capability must capitalize on its ability to anticipate change…

Long-term housing futures for Australia: using 'foresight' to explore alternative visions and choices

Abstract: Terry Burke and Robin Zakharov, with the assistance of Caroline Neske, look at what Australia's housing future may look like in twenty years time. They identify and develop a small number of scenarios about the nature of the housing system in 2025 and work through their implications.

Personal Futures: Foresight & Futures Studies for Individuals

Abstract: .................................................................................................................12 1.0 Introduction......................................................................................................13 1.

Understanding Rural Change -Demography as a key to the Future

Abstract: The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences. Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also instable due to migration patterns.

Managing The Future: Foresight In The Knowledge Economy

Abstract: The article reviews the book “Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy,” edited by Haridimos Tsoukas and Jill Shepherd.

Complexitiy theory for organizational futures studies

Abstract: Purpose - This paper seeks to make an assessment of the value and veracity that complexity theory makes as a "new" approach to futures thinking, and the implications that the approach holds for futures studies. Design/methodology/approach - There are three sections. In the first, the notion of complexity theory is explained and its robustness considered, leading to a commentary on its status as a theory. In the second section, the applications of complexity approaches to change and futures thinking are examined, including its perspective on forecasting and scenario analysis. The final section comments on the compatibility of complexity theory and the relevance of conventional analytical forecasting techniques. Findings - Complexity thinking implies that the causes of events cannot be known and that forecasting and scenario planning are doomed to failure. However, this perspective assumes that complexity has achieved status as a theory, a possibility which is rejected in this analysis. Practical implications - It is proposed that complexity theory offers a neat metaphor for considering aspects of change, but that there is insufficient evidence to impel managers to dispose of forecasting techniques based on the flawed assumption that all change will be emergent and fundamentally unpredictable. In fact, complexity and analytical scenario techniques might be more compatible than is suggested by complexity advocates, and might be helpful in conceptualising alternative scenarios, as it encourages an awareness of emerging patterns. Originality/value - This paper makes an assessment of the contribution that complexity theory may make to futures thinking, provides some practical guidance concerning its application, comments on the utility of conventional futures analysis methods and offers a view on the relevance of analytical forecasting techniques.

Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy: Toward a Wiser Future

Abstract: Foresight Innovation And Strategy Toward A Wiser Future Thu, 13 Jun 2019 18:58:00 GMT [PDF]Free Foresight Innovation And Strategy Toward A Wiser Future download Book Foresight Innovation And Strategy Toward A Wiser Future.pdf FREE DOWNLOAD, FORESIGHT INNOVATION AND STRATEGY TOWARD A WISER FUTURE PDF related documents: In The O In The Name Of Love : A Study Of Sexual Desire In The Shade Of The Cottonwoods. Induction Training PDF Foresight Innovation and Strategy Toward a Wiser ... Mon, 03 Jun 2019 14:38:00 GMT