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Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2010"


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Apr 2010-Futures
TL;DR: In this article, Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).

234 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular and that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.

223 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study on the origins and early evolution of technology foresight illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences, particularly in the case of policy research.

176 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The use of the term "technology foresight" has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments) in science, technology and innovation as discussed by the authors.

169 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In order to identify discontinuous technological change and develop appropriate action, companies are increasingly building technology foresight (TF) practices using networks of experts as mentioned in this paper, which can support sourcing external technologies.
Abstract: In order to identify discontinuous technological change and develop appropriate action, companies are increasingly building technology foresight (TF) practices This paper explores how, using networks of experts, TF capabilities can be built On the basis of three case studies and 43 interviews, it is shown that building foresight systems through networks of scouts yields several benefits, including the support for sourcing external technologies Using insights from the three major telecommunication incumbents in Europe, the paper describes and discusses (1) what can be achieved by technology scouting, (2) how a process can be set up, (3) what is important in the design of a scouting network, and (4) the characteristics that should be aimed for when choosing technology scouts The paper contributes to the methodological base of corporate foresight, to the technology management literature, and to the understanding of how companies can increase their open-innovation capabilities by extending the intertwinement with their environment

166 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the effect and response uncertainty of emerging drivers of change in the context of strategic foresight is investigated. But the authors focus on the state uncertainty about the likely path of evolution and the response uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers.

162 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Beat Habegger1
01 Feb 2010-Futures
TL;DR: In an interdependent and complex world, only few public policy challenges can be confined to one particular policy area anymore as mentioned in this paper, and many governments have started to experiment with strategic foresight that deliberately cuts across the traditional boundaries of policy areas and government departments.

135 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Foresight has evolved as a distinct prospective analytical tool: it considers alternative futures of various ST as well as sectoral perspectives; and various policy domains, beyond science, technology and innovation (STI) policies as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Foresight has evolved as a distinct prospective analytical tool: it considers alternative futures of various ST as well as sectoral perspectives; and various policy domains, beyond science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. In spite of this apparent success, the perspectives for the future use and impacts of foresight are far from clear. The notion of ‘hype–disappointment cycles’, originally developed to describe the patterns of attention paid to emerging technologies, might be applicable to foresight, too: initial enthusiasm has already given way to a significant deal of scepticism in several countries. Clearly, a strong need is emerging for a more realistic assessment of the strengths and the weaknesses of various types of prospective analyses. There are two main reasons for this approach: 1. Embedding foresight in the decision-making pro

134 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project, to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability.

124 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The paper argues that the next 25 years will challenge the current organization of education around the unit of the individual child, the school and the discourses of the knowledge economy; and will require the development of new approaches to curriculum, cross-institutional relationships, workforce development and decision-making in education.
Abstract: The educational technology research field has been at the heart of debates about the future of education for the last quarter century. This paper explores the socio-technical developments that the next 25 years might bring and the implications of such developments for educators and for educational technology research. The paper begins by outlining the diverse approaches to educational futures that are currently visible in the field, and suggests four principles to underpin future thinking in educational technology. It then describes the methods used to inquire into long-term socio-technical futures in the 2-year Beyond Current Horizons Programme. These included a foresight and scenario development process bringing together evidence reviews and insights from over 100 researchers from disciplines as diverse as computer science, demography and sociology of childhood, as well as consultation with over 130 organizations and individuals from industry, practice and educational beneficiary groups. The outcomes of this programme are then presented, including a set of future scenarios for education and a set of socio-technical developments that might underpin such scenarios. The scenarios emerge from three future worlds ('Trust Yourself', 'Loyalty Points' and 'Only Connect'), and from projections including: changing demography, new human–machine relations and a weakening of institutional boundaries. The paper then argues that the next 25 years will challenge our current organization of education around the unit of the individual child, the school and the discourses of the knowledge economy; and will require the development of new approaches to curriculum, cross-institutional relationships, workforce development and decision-making in education. Finally, the paper argues that these developments challenge educational technology research to move beyond pedagogy to curriculum; beyond the school to the community, home and workplace; and beyond social sciences to collaborations with medical and bio-ethics fields.

113 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conjecture the possible technological determinants underpinning future economic long waves based on prominent forecasting studies of scholars and a leading British company, and assume that converging nano-bio-info-cogno technologies are the foundation of 5th and 6th Kondratieff waves, whereas the future technological revolution that may underpin the 7th economic long wave is assumed to be Faster-Than-Light (FTL) Technologies.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to conjecture the possible technological determinants underpinning future economic long waves. The foresight is based on prominent forecasting studies of scholars and a leading British company. This research assumes that converging nano-bio-info-cogno technologies are the foundation of 5th and 6th Kondratieff waves, whereas the future technological revolution that may underpin the 7th economic long wave is assumed to be Faster-Than-Light (FTL) Technologies. The positive effects of these next technological revolutions on worldwide economic system are a high increase in productivity, employment rate, consumption and economic growth that lead to longer, happier and healthier living as well as general well-being.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) as mentioned in this paper developed lessons on the design and set-up of foresight efforts, their use and follow-through, and the need to communicate the results of such efforts to their members effectively.


Journal ArticleDOI
Gill Ringland1
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the role of scenarios in strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of scenarios for renewal.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the role of strategic planning processes for improving the prospects of achieving sustainable transitions in infrastructure sectors is analyzed, and the authors present the "Regional Infrastructure Foresight" methodology as a specific procedural proposal and analyse results from its application to a case study in the Swiss sanitation sector.
Abstract: Sustainability transitions have repeatedly been demanded in various economic sectors to confront global environmental problems. The present paper analyses the role of strategic planning processes for improving the prospects of achieving sustainable transitions in infrastructure sectors. Current planning approaches in these sectors tend to perpetuate the established socio-technical configurations by neglecting context uncertainties, by ignoring radical system alternatives and by focusing on narrow value considerations. In order to improve the prospects for sustainable transitions, more reflexive and discursive strategic planning methods are needed. We present the ‘Regional Infrastructure Foresight’ methodology as a specific procedural proposal and analyse results from its application to a case study in the Swiss sanitation sector. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 May 2010-Futures
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors conceptualize trends as (socio-cultural) innovations, and they present a framework for identifying the invention aspect of a trend (i.e., "the new") which is based on the fact that “the new" results from a transgression of contextual boundaries.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is a lack of a general framework of analysis that clearly defines how all the foresight activities should be carried out in a firm and should be integrated in an organic way, in order to support strategic decision makers at corporate, business and functional levels.
Abstract: Strategy formulation is strictly intertwined with the analysis of the likely evolution of the business environment, in order to detect promptly the opportunities and the threats brought about by emerging trends and to deal with them properly (strategic foresight). Today many companies put much effort into strategic foresight, and also in the literature on strategy there is a growing attention to strategic foresight. However, it still seems there is a lack of a general framework of analysis that clearly defines how all the foresight activities should be carried out in a firm and should be integrated in an organic way, in order to support strategic decision makers at corporate, business and functional levels. This is the main issue we have taken into account through the study of some relevant European and US firms that have established foresight units, in order to deliver support for long term strategy formulation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a socio-technical roadmapping method is presented as a tool to integrate the technology developments better with societal developments and transport policy design, and three thematic, complementary roadmaps of the potential transport system technology services of the future are provided.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a rich repertoire of 13 families of foresight methods is presented, and the authors suggest considerations in deciding which of those methods suit the various types of future endeavours.
Abstract: This paper posits nine dimensions to distinguish the types of foresight studies. It arrays a rich repertoire of 13 families of foresight methods. It then suggests considerations in deciding which of those methods suit the various types of foresight endeavours. There is no one way to conduct effective foresight studies.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The most central characteristic of American futurists and their approach as practiced around the world is eclectic flexibility in methods and techniques as mentioned in this paper, illustrated by the author's own decades of work for organizational clients.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building, is discussed and a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common futureoriented policies are made.
Abstract: Over the past decade, horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way. This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building. Analysing the national horizon scans of the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark in a joint horizon pilot project initiated under the ERA-Net ForSociety, this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An innovative foresighting study which constructed a set of hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy.
Abstract: This paper reports an innovative foresighting study which constructed a set of hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. Combining backcasting and multi-criteria appraisal the authors developed a participatory expert stakeholder-led methodology to build and appraise a set of visions, which sought to acknowledge the diversity of possible hydrogen futures and contested claims as to their sustainability. A set of transition scenarios were then developed exploring the dynamics and governance of the large-scale socio-technical changes that would be required for the emergence of the different visions. While aspects of this project have been reported elsewhere, this paper seeks to: (1) locate the work with respect to broader developments in the fields of foresight, expectations and socio-technical transitions to sustainability; (2) provide a description of the UKSHEC sustainable futures methodology; and (3) reflect on key insights for research and practice.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Dec 2010-Futures
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on emergent signs of evolutionary change in human thinking that run parallel with many of the exponential changes manifesting in the external world, identifying new ways of thinking within several disciplines such as science, philosophy, religion and education.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For many decades, the concept of sustainability has been highly successful in public policies and even in the business world as mentioned in this paper, however, the efforts made to construct specific methods dedicated to building sustainable strategies seem rather weak.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University (CNS-ASU) as mentioned in this paper is a nano-scale Science and Engineering Center (NSEC) funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF).
Abstract: The Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University (CNS-ASU) is a Nano-scale Science and Engineering Center (NSEC) funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). It implements an agenda of “real-time technology assessment” (RTTA) in pursuit of a strategic vision of the “anticipatory governance” of nanotechnologies. To achieve this vision, CNS-ASU unifies research programs not only across several universities but also across three critical, component activities: foresight (of plausible future scenarios), integration (of social science and humanities research with nano-scale science and engineering), and engagement (of publics in deliberations). CNS-ASU also performs educational and training activities as well as public outreach and informal science education. This paper elaborates the Center’s strategic vision of anticipatory governance and its component activities, especially in the context of extending the concerns of societal dimensions research beyond the traditional risk paradigm.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Nov 2010-Futures
TL;DR: A review of journals in the field(s) of Foresight and Futures Studies pointed to a tension in the relationship between the field of future studies and practice as discussed by the authors.

Dissertation
01 Jan 2010
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a scenario method to help product development teams in planning for system innovation for sustainability, which can influence the business transformation which needs to take place as part of the societal transformation to achieve sustainability.
Abstract: The overall objective of this research was to effectively link the activities/decisions at product development (micro-innovation) level in companies with the transformation which needs to take place at the societal (macro-innovation) level to achieve sustainability. The research took place in three phases. In the first phase a broad literature review was carried out which covered areas of sustainability science, futures studies and system innovation theory. In the second phase, based on the findings and insights gathered from the review of the literature, a theoretical framework was developed explaining how activities and decisions at product development level relates to the long term and structural changes required at the socio-technical system level to achieve sustainability. This theoretical framework was used to develop a scenario method to help product development teams in planning for system innovation for sustainability. The third phase of the research consisted of field work carried out to test, improve and evaluate the scenario method following an action research methodology. The results of the field work indicated that the scenario method can aid product development teams to incorporate sustainability issues into their decision making in an effective way and can influence the business transformation which needs to take place as part of the societal transformation to achieve sustainability. Three outstanding issues related to the scenario method remain as potential areas for improvement and/or further research: 1) The trade-off between the time/cost efficiency of the scenario method and the depth of the output which can be achieved using it; 2) The conflict between the time horizon prescribed to be used by the scenario method and the planning periods conventionally used by businesses which is only a fraction of the time required to transform socio-technical systems, and; 3) The wider application scope of the scenario method.

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors acknowledge and explore the methodological intersections and complementarities of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies, and encourage their collaboration in the academic community to stimulate a more productive conversation between these two disciplines.
Abstract: Two apparently independent management disciplines – Strategic Planning and Futures Studies --are converging through joint application in practice and their literatures. The two disciplines enhance each other; yet, in the academic community, they remain largely detached and ignorant of each other. The primary purpose of this article is to acknowledge and explore the methodological intersections and complementarities of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies. In the academy, Strategic Planning was the predecessor of contemporary Strategic Management. But, Strategic Planning was essentially abandoned by the academy in the 1980s. Subsequently, a new community of strategic planning methodologists – comprised largely of futurists – emerged. Futures studies have enabled strategists to use planning models more productively by clarifying vital issues such as impending and potential changes in economic, industry and market structures; drivers of rivalry; technology; and supply/demand balances. Concurrently, the strategic planning model provides a structure for integrating and organizing the many methods and techniques that are used by futurists. Thus, Futures Studies and Strategic Planning are highly complementary. A second purpose of this article therefore is to stimulate a more productive conversation between these two disciplines and to encourage their collaboration in the academy.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies are contrasted with sociological imagination and contemporary social science discourse, and a conceptual analysis of such assumptions is presented.
Abstract: Purpose – This article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are usually embedded in foresight studies, are contrasted with sociological imagination and contemporary social science discourse.Design/methodology/approach – This paper is a conceptual analysis of theoretical assumptions embedded in foresight studies.Findings – Sociological lenses, including concepts like anticipation, latency, time, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, change and plurality of images, offer clarity in terms of both futures studies and foresights.Research limitations/implications – Explicating presumptions embedded in foresight methods helps recognition of how such methods shape the concepts of future and time. This is vital for assessment of the analytical products of foresights studies.Originality/value – This research contributes to the ambition of linking the theoretical world of futures research and the ...

Journal ArticleDOI
01 May 2010-Futures
TL;DR: This paper suggests four promising fields of application for prediction markets to enhance foresight by providing advantages in terms of continuous and real-time information aggregation, motivation of participation and information revelation as well as cost-efficiency and scalability.