Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2012"

Prospects for technology assessment in a framework of responsible research and innovation

Abstract: In this article the broad societal quest for the “right” impacts of science and technology and the imperative of governmental bodies to make “impact assessments” part and parcel of the planning and justification of their major activities will be discussed. This will be discussed from a European perspective. The basis of a systematic use of impact assessments and foresight will pave the way for a framework for responsible research and innovation on which a proposal will be made.

Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations

Abstract: Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures. It has a range of applications and is used with different methods, for different objectives and in different settings. Yet, anticipation in science and technology is not limited to foresight, but occurs in many more informal ways. This paper investigates the phenomenon that socio-technical developments are saturated with formal and informal anticipations and discusses the implications of this condition for foresight. The range of foresight studies is reviewed as well as the main results of the sociology of expectations, which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived, and it is discussed how these support or limit the ambitions of foresight.

Anticipatory Ethics for Emerging Technologies

Abstract: In this essay, a new approach for the ethical study of emerging technology ethics will be presented, called anticipatory technology ethics (ATE). The ethics of emerging technology is the study of ethical issues at the R&D and introduction stage of technology development through anticipation of possible future devices, applications, and social consequences. I will argue that a major problem for its development is the problem of uncertainty, which can only be overcome through methodologically sound forecasting and futures studies. I will then consider three contemporary approaches to the ethics of emerging technologies that use forecasting: ethical technology assessment, the techno-ethical scenarios approach and the ETICA approach, and I considered their strengths and weaknesses. Based on this critical study, I then present my own approach: ATE. ATE is a conceptually and methodologically rich approach for the ethical analysis of emerging technologies that incorporates a large variety of ethical principles, issues, objects and levels of analysis, and research aims. It is ready to be applied to contemporary and future emerging technologies

Neoliberalising Adaptation to Environmental Change: Foresight or Foreclosure?

Abstract: The UK's Government Office for Science has recently released an important report, produced by its internal think tank Foresight. Over seventy peer-reviewed studies have been commissioned and some 350 experts and `stakeholders' have been involved in creating Migration and Global Environmental Change (Foresight, 2011). Its lead authors have recently published a summary of the main conclusions in the leading scientific journal Nature (Black et al, 2011), and the report has already received extensive media coverage. By virtue of its scope and authorship, the report can be considered a milestone in the scientific and practitioner fields related to environment and migration. It is targeted at a wide readership, both in academia and in policy-making circles.(1) An attached `action plan' suggests that the report's findings and recommendations are already being disseminated widely within international organisations and governance networks worldwide.

Anticipating ethical issues in emerging IT

Abstract: In this essay, a new approach to the ethics of emerging information technology will be presented, called anticipatory technology ethics (ATE). The ethics of emerging technology is the study of ethical issues at the R&D and introduction stage of technology development through anticipation of possible future devices, applications, and social consequences. In the essay, I will first locate emerging technology in the technology development cycle, after which I will consider ethical approaches to emerging technologies, as well as obstacles in developing such approaches. I will argue that any sound approach must centrally include futures studies of technology. I then present ATE and some applications of it to emerging information technologies. In ATE, ethical analysis is performed at three levels, the technology, artifact and application levels, and at each levels distinct types of ethical questions are asked. ATE analyses result in the identification and evaluation of a broad range of ethical issues that can be anticipated in relation to an emerging information technology. This ethical analysis can then be used for ethical recommendations for design or governance.

Cold War social science : knowledge production, liberal democracy, and human nature

Abstract: Foreword: Positioning Social Science in Cold War America T.M.Porter Cold War Social Science: Spectre, Reality, or Useful Concept? M.Solovey PART I: KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION The Rise and Fall of Wartime Social Science: Harvard's Refugee Interview Project, 1950-54 D.C.Engerman Futures Studies: A New Social Science Rooted in Cold War Strategic Thinking K.Tolon 'It was All Connected': Computers and Linguistics in Early Cold War America J.Martin-Nielsen Epistemic Design: Theory and Data in Harvard's Department of Social Relations J.Isaac PART II: LIBERAL DEMOCRACY Producing Reason H.Heyck Column Right, March! Nationalism, Scientific Positivism, and the Conservative Turn of the American Social Sciences in the Cold War Era H.Cravens From Expert Democracy to Beltway Banditry: How the Anti-War Movement Expanded the Military-Academic-Industrial Complex J.Rohde Neo-Evolutionist Anthropology, the Cold War, and the Beginnings of the World Turn in U.S. Scholarship H.Brick PART III: HUMAN NATURE Maintaining Humans E.Jones-Imhotep Psychology, Psychologists, and the Creativity Movement: The Lives of Method Inside and Outside the Cold War M.Bycroft An Anthropologist on TV: Ashley Montagu and the Biological Basis of Human Nature, 1945-1960 N.Weidman Cold War Emotions: The War over Human Nature M.Vicedo

Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research

Abstract: The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does not exist. We propose that futures research, a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 years, offers an underused but fruitful set of approaches to address this important challenge. A few futures research methods—notably several forms of scenario analysis—have been applied to environmental issues and problems in recent years. But futurists have developed an array of other useful methods for exploring possible, plausible, and preferable futures, important insights into the nature of change, and perspectives for thinking creatively and deeply about the future. We present an overview of futures research and its potential to enrich environmental planning and policy by offering a cross-fertilization of new ideas and approaches, providing a more complete view of emerging environmental problems, and facilitating the development of strategies to increase adaptive capacity and deal more effectively with surprises.

The Economic Man

Abstract: This paper questions how economic systems are using knowledge to support economic decision making Scientific knowledge collected by centralized planners is not the right type of information to base economic decisions on since it does not have the capacity to consider local opportunity factors These concerns, originally espoused by Frederick Hayek when analyzing the economy as a whole, can be decomposed to focus on individual businesses A large corporation, encumbered with a traditional vertical organizational structure, typically has an executive management team taking on the role of the centralized planners in Hayek’s model, and is forced to make decisions without the local opportunity knowledge that may be available in their low-level business units Economic decisions must fundamentally be based on accurate information that considers local opportunities, and must be made rapidly in today’s dynamic market place To get access to local knowledge from their low-level business units, executive management teams should consider implementing learning organizations with horizontal management structures that encourage collaboration Companies with centralized organizational structures simply move too slowly to be competitive The “Economic Man” is an economist’s creation designed by Mr Hayek to show how unlikely it is that economic decision makers could ever accurately predict future economic conditions A hypothetical “Economic Man” with “perfect foresight” was described, in essence, to allow readers to visualize the futility of the assumptions underlying our current economic theories Yet in today’s competitive business environment, perfect foresight is precisely the standard we impose on our executive managers The perfect knowledge assumption is said to mislead these economic decision makers into a false believe the problem is simpler, from the perspective of the information needed to support such decisions, than it actually is This results in poor investment decisions by managers that collect the wrong economic data The division of labor concept notices that complex jobs can be more efficiently completed by a number of workers performing specialized tasks, than by one worker trying to complete the entire job By dividing up the required skills on complex tasks across multiple workers, they can become specialists and work their assigned area more efficiently The level of knowledge required to make workers skilled specialists is essential for the division of labor concept to be effective Further knowledge is required to quantify economic input variables to the extent that decision makers in executive management can accurately predict how the marketplace will unfold and, in so doing, achieve an "economic man" like stature No matter how we materialize or describe the problem; it seems the effective acquisition and use of knowledge is the correct answer Peter Drucker relates the economic successes a corporation has with their ability to create “core competencies” that lead to market leadership positions He begins to abstractly define the type of data that should be collected to help managers of these corporations monitor the strength and relative position of their core competencies This relates to Mr Hayek’s concern that managers need accurate, but relevant, information to base their decisions on Just when things were looking bleak for our hypothetical “Economic Man,” these important steps define feasible types of real time information processing that can support economic decision makers monitoring the strength and position of core competencies While it’s not quite as good as the perfect foresight imposed on our “Economic Man,” relevant, near real time economic data is a giant leap forward

Why Society is a Complex Matter: Meeting Twenty-first Century Challenges with a New Kind of Science

Abstract: Society is complicated. But this book argues that this does not place it beyond the reach of a science that can help to explain and perhaps even to predict social behaviour. As a system made up of many interacting agents people, groups, institutions and governments, as well as physical and technological structures such as roads and computer networks society can be regarded as a complex system. In recent years, scientists have made great progress in understanding how such complex systems operate, ranging from animal populations to earthquakes and weather. These systems show behaviours that cannot be predicted or intuited by focusing on the individual components, but which emerge spontaneously as a consequence of their interactions: they are said to be self-organized. Attempts to direct or manage such emergent properties generally reveal that top-down approaches, which try to dictate a particular outcome, are ineffectual, and that what is needed instead is a bottom-up approach that aims to guide self-organization towards desirable states. This book shows how some of these ideas from the science of complexity can be applied to the study and management of social phenomena, including traffic flow, economic markets, opinion formation and the growth and structure of cities. Building on these successes, the book argues that the complex-systems view of the social sciences has now matured sufficiently for it to be possible, desirable and perhaps essential to attempt a grander objective: to integrate these efforts into a unified scheme for studying, understanding and ultimately predicting what happens in the world we have made. Such a scheme would require the mobilization and collaboration of many different research communities, and would allow society and its interactions with the physical environment to be explored through realistic models and large-scale data collection and analysis. It should enable us to find new and effective solutions to major global problems such as conflict, disease, financial instability, environmental despoliation and poverty, while avoiding unintended policy consequences. It could give us the foresight to anticipate and ameliorate crises, and to begin tackling some of the most intractable problems of the twenty-first century.

Innovative classification of technology foresight methods

Abstract: Since the end of the twentieth century there is a noticeable worldwide paradigm shift in future studies which are so far based mainly on statistical methods. The development of a social, not only a strictly scientific vision of the future has become crucial. It appears that the biggest role in this context played technology foresight programs (whose origins go back even to the 70's), integrating traditional methods of forecasting as well as those derived from the social sciences, economics, management science, etc. The paper presents a rich collection of foresight methods identified by the author, a general outline and characteristics of various types of methods, and an innovative classification of technology foresight research methods. Because of the huge complexity of the approach to technological foresight and its further evolution, the ability to classify and identify the typology of methods may be necessary for an orderly and rational way of structuring foresight projects.

The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy Making

Abstract: Contents: Preface Part I Knowledge: Introduction Foresight concepts Strategic concepts Evolutionary concepts Inferring in theory Inferring in foresight. Part II Structure: Principles of strategic foresight in public policy making Strategic foresight in European Union's older member states' public policy making Strategic foresight in the European Union's ten new member states' public policy making Strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations. Part III Process: How could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision? - views of policy makers and high government officials How could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision making? - views of strategic foresight knowledge producers How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems? - views of strategic foresight knowledge producers How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems? - views of policy makers and high government officials. Part IV Discussion: Trilogy of systems thinking, foresight and strategic management Adjusting foresight, intelligence and inferring for different types of systems Bibliography Index.

Foresight: the future of computer trading in financial markets (2012). Final project report.

Abstract: A new two-year Foresight study The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets - An International Perspective, sheds new light on technological advances which have transformed market structures in recent years. It assembles and analyses evidence on the effect of HFT on financial markets looking out to 2022.The aim of this project is to make a significant contribution to the challenges computer-based trading brings in the coming years and capitalise on the opportunities it has to offer. The independent and international study has involved 150 leading experts from more 20 countries to provide the best possible analysis on computer trading to date. Sponsored by Her Majesty's Treasury, the project was led by the Government Office for Science under the direction of the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Sir John Beddington. It has involved leading experts in the field and explores how computer generated trading in financial markets will evolve over the next 10 years.A High Level Stakeholder Group, comprised of senior individuals from relevant institutions, provided strategic oversight for the project and advised on the key issues to be addressed. It was chaired by the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Greg Clark MP.

Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design

Abstract: The systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been much discussed recently. This paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) as a methodological framework for linking R&D results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design. The paper explores the methodological background of the IPRM method and outlines its policy rationale. It also illustrates IPRM with two case studies from Australia and Finland. The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies. The paper concludes by assessing the policy implications of the IPRM approach. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Teaching about the Future

Abstract: Lists of Tables List of Figures Preface Purposes Acknowledgements Introduction Introducing the Future Why Teach the Future? The Problem of Prediction The Future(s) Be Prepared Imagine the Future Create the Future The Tricks of Foresight Telling Stories Pursuing Visions The Benefits of Foresight Structure of the Book PART I: UNDERSTANDING Models of Change Introduction Understanding Change What is Change? How Much Change is There? The Four Dimensions of Change A Model of Change: Punctuated Equilibrium 'What can we know about the future?' [Not] Predicting the Future Certainty Assumptions Types of Futures: the Cone of Plausibility Futures Methods Some Definitions Around Methods Thinking about the Future Framework Conclusion Resources Systems Thinking Introduction History Limits to Growth: Three Strikes! Generalization System Behaviours Approach Cybernetic Systems Complex Adaptive Systems Conclusion Resources Perspectives on the Future Introduction History Empirical and Cultural Critical Integral Generalization Approach Causal Layered Analysis Integral Futures Conclusion Resources Social Change Introduction History Generalization Explaining Social Change Critical Assumptions Approach Conclusion Resources PART II: MAPPING Research Introduction History Generalization Choosing a Domain Primary Research Secondary Research Approach Research Supports Framework Forecasting Conclusion Resources Scanning Introduction History Generalization Why Scanning is Difficult Approach Identify Scanning Hits Scan a Wide Range of Sources Operate at Different Levels of the Domain Keep an Eye on Wildcards Keep Track of Your Hits Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits Conclusion Resources Forecasting Introduction History Generalization Forecasting Theory Approach: Framework Forecasting Summary Era Analysis Baseline Forecasting Critical Thinking Baseline Analysis Creativity Alternative Futures Forecasting Scenario Kernels Conclusion Resources PART III: INFLUENCING Leadership Introduction History Era I: Traits Era 2: Situation Era 3: Effectiveness Era 4: Contingency Era 5: Shared Leadership Era 6: Managers and Leaders Generalization Leadership Distinctions Approach Leading People into New Territory Exploring Boundaries of the Possible Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do Conclusion Resources Visioning Introduction History Generalization Attributes of a Vision Vision Statements Approach Values Background Conclusion Resources Planning Introduction History Generalization Approach Planning to Plan Understanding the Future Setting the Direction Developing the Plan Conclusion Resources Change Management Introduction History Generalization Establish a Sense of Urgency Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition . . . Is Rarely Chosen it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances . . . Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope . . . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic . . . Always Politicizes Communication . . . Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups . . . Always Occurs One Person at a Time . . . Is Never Fully Adopted by Force Approach Have a Good Reason Be Honest about the Process Articulate a Vision Commit to Achieve the Vision Communicate! Generate Trust Conclusion Resources Appendices Appendix 1: Framework Forecasting Specification Appendix 2: World Futures Appendix 2: World Futures Appendix 3: Scanning Form and Explanation Bibliography

The Complex Futures of Emerging Technologies: Challenges and Opportunities for Science Foresight and Governance in Australia

Abstract: This paper outlines trends in the development of high-profile new technologies such as nano- and bio-technology, identifying roles foresight and governance practices must play to enable their usage in addressing 'wicked' problems (e.g. climate change). We explain the notion of emerging technologies, and their expected convergences, and consider both their potential and issues faced in the Australian context. Recent trends and emerging issues - such as slower, more problematic development and adoption than expected, and increasingly global competition to establish 'future industries'- are reviewed to identify a set of imperatives. These imperatives highlight emerging opportunities and challenges, focussing on how examining alternative futures and perspectives may help enable effective responses to emerging technologies.

Towards Networked Foresight? Exploring the Use of Futures Research in Innovation Networks

Abstract: Along with the rise of the now popular ‘open’ paradigm in innovation management, networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks. This article seeks to investigate how innovation networks and foresight are related, to what extent networked foresight activities exist and how they are practiced. For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework and applied to three cases. The foresight activities are analyzed in terms of type, scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size. ‘Networked foresight’ is clearly observable in all three cases. Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight. However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that ‘networked foresight’ entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e.g., the broad resource base and the large pool of people with diverse backgrounds that are available. Furthermore, effective instruments for the re-integration of knowledge into the networks’ partner organizations are needed.

How Foresight Creates Unforeseen Futures: The Role of Doubting

Abstract: This paper defines foresight as being a mental model about the future and considers the role of foresight in shaping actions and events reflected in imperious, heroic, tragic and chaotic futures (defined within the paper). The paper contends that success in foresight is not about acquiring knowledge or using it to build pictures about the future. Rather, it is the expectations that come with such processes that cause organisational closure, and thus chaotic and tragic futures. The argument is made that firms need to doubt much more than they do.Two processes of doubting are described: the first (single loop doubting) shows how differences between expectations and perception cause doubt that (whenever the underlying mental model is sufficiently plastic) is accommodated by social processes without change. The second process, called double loop doubting, is based on genuine attempts to refute, rather than confirm, mental models about the future. The contention is that such processes would lower expectations and certainty, thereby opening the organisation and enabling mental models to be more accurate.

Environmental Scanning, Futures Research, Strategic Foresight and Organizational Future Orientation: A Review, Integration, and Future Research Directions

Abstract: In this paper we explore the current understanding on how firms explore future changes and trends as well as plan their managerial responses. We review literature in four research streams: (1) environmental scanning, (2) futures research, (3) peripheral vision, and (4) corporate/strategic foresight. Through the analysis of more than 250 articles we (a) trace the evolution over time, (b) highlight the linkages between the different research streams, and (c) give recommendations for future research. Overall we call for more cross-fertilization of the different research streams and a stronger linkage to adjacent research disciplines. Through such integration and linkage research should produce better recommendations for managers on how to build an organizational future orientation, drive organizational adaptation, and make their firms robust towards external discontinuous change.

Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight

Abstract: – The objective of this paper is to contribute to improved practice and impact of foresight through the development and testing of a Foresight Impact Evaluation Schema. The schema is designed to guide foresight practitioners in the more effective design and conduct of foresight exercises to optimise impact., – The development of the schema is based on the significant previous work in this field, and the author's experience of designing and managing more than 100 foresight projects. It also takes into account accumulated experience with heuristics developed to guide foresight design and management, and with various approaches to evaluating the impact of social science knowledge on policy‐ and decision‐making., – A range of impacts identified from major foresight projects have been characterised according to four categories of impact ‐ awareness raising, informing policy, enabling greater capacity to address uncertainty, and influencing policy, strategy, investment, program delivery and public attitudes., – The schema needs to be tested against a variety of foresight projects to further refine its usefulness., – With the rapid growth of the application of foresight, it has become essential to guide practitioners in the appropriate design and management of all the processes associated with foresight to achieve maximum impact, and to demonstrate the value of the investment in foresight to consequent policy and planning., – This paper builds on earlier and contemporary work to develop a more refined and applicable schema to guide foresight impact evaluation.