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Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2015"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Corporate foresight is defined as a practice that permits an organization to lay the foundation for a future competitive advantage as discussed by the authors, and it has been studied extensively in the literature, including the field of finance.

190 citations


Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: In 1970, the state of Hawaii organized a landmark project to garner public input on possibilities for the futures, called Hawaii 2000 as mentioned in this paper, a year-long, cross-island endeavor that utilized then-cutting edge communication technologies and a range of tools for engaging various stakeholders.
Abstract: In 1970, the state of Hawaii organized a landmark project to garner public input on possibilities for the futures, called Hawaii 2000—a year-long, cross-island endeavor that utilized then-cutting edge communication technologies and a range of tools for engaging various stakeholders. As Chaplin explains, “A Commission on the Year 2000 for Hawaii, involving not only academics and professionals, but also the young for whom the twenty-first century will exist, could help us focus on where we want to go and how to get there” [5, pp. 3–4]. As Dator et al. recount:

164 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Sustainability requires a significant input from Ergonomics/Human Factors, but the profession needs some expansion in its thinking in order to make this contribution, highlighting the need for some new thinking and knowledge capture by systems ergonomics professionals.

113 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Feb 2015-Futures
TL;DR: The authors explored how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors.

98 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an approach of combining Foresight and integrated roadmapping for corporate innovation management is presented. And the authors apply the suggested approach through case studies of major Russian companies in the oil & gas, energy, and aviation sectors.

95 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a signalling exercise with a view to trace emerging dynamics in the development of the service economy in Europe and identify the most promising service innovation dynamics, and foresight scenarios demonstrate possible future trends of the new service economy.

90 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that companies should invest in pedagogically rich scenario processes that develop the capability of managers to sense changes, and the learning generated by scenario processes can strengthen the ‘sensing’ dynamic capabilities of firms.

84 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors address a key issue in literature on management and foresight: the author explores how firms might cope with the increased turbulence of the business environment by introducing the concept of "boundary uncertainty" and investigates its managerial implications.
Abstract: Purpose – The main purpose of this paper is to address a key issue in literature on management and foresight: the author explores how firms might cope with the increased turbulence of the business environment. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a multiple case study of major firms of the energy and the mobile communication industries. Findings – The focus is on strategic foresight and organizational flexibility: the author introduces the concept of “boundary uncertainty” and investigates its managerial implications. Originality/value – The main contribution of this paper is to expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty and to reinvigorate the study of strategic decision making in turbulent industries. The author provides descriptive data on the foresight approaches that some of the world’s largest and most influential companies used throughout the 2000s for remaining aligned with their fast-paced environments, and thus informs the debate between the “planning” and the “learnin...

74 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Futures literacy is the capacity to design and implement processes that make use of anticipation, generally with the purpose of trying to understand and act in a complex emergent context as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Futures Literacy is the capacity to design and implement processes that make use of anticipation, generally with the purpose of trying to understand and act in a complex emergent context. This article examines the potential of Futures Literacy to contribute to the realisation of a better balance between learning that is shaped by the supposition that what needs to be learned is knowable in advance, what I will label ‘push’ education, and ‘pull’ learning, that starts from the discovery of not knowing something, initiating the search for hypotheses, experiments, and evidence that eventually lead to understanding. Insufficient Futures Literacy impedes the expansion our anticipatory activities beyond preparation and planning, with the result that at both the individual and institutional levels it is difficult to find the motivation and capability to undertake and organise learning that goes beyond ‘push’ education, or what people ‘need’ to know now in order to get: a ‘good job’, be ‘good citizens’, etc., in the future. As a result humanity may be less able to embrace complexity or pursue a diversification approach to resilience.

73 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Frank Ruff1
TL;DR: In this paper, the current state of practice of a corporate foresight unit within a multinational automotive company, working with this task assignment for more than three decades, is described, where the early detection of medium to long-term developments in the broader business environment, including social and market developments, is integrated into innovation and strategy processes.

72 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the role that online approaches may play in qualitative scenario planning, using data from five empirical case studies, and found that increased participation in terms of both amount and diversity, increased volume and speed of data collected and analyzed, increased transparency around driver selection and analysis, and decreased overall cost of project administration.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the value of networked foresight: foresight conducted in innovation networks for the benefit of the network and its partners with active contributions from the partners.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Aug 2015-Futures
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors trace the changing contexts for futures research over the past 25 years and suggest three pathways for revived critical futures research: socio-technical practices, future-oriented dialectics, and socioeconomic imaginaries.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a theory of foresight is defined as "the process of theorizing about the future of a given socio-technical system." The main guiding question is "What does a theory-of-foresight mean?"

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Feb 2015-Futures
TL;DR: In this article, a three-phase periodization of modern Western futures studies to construct historical classification is presented, which is characterized by the dominance of foresight, the advance of critical futures studies, and the intensification of fragmentation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a typology of knowledge in foresight workshops is developed and an exploratory methodological approach for analysing the knowledge creation dynamics in transcribed workshop discussions is presented.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is concluded that a critical mechanism of a system such as the radar is its probing of analytical thinking, as well as its way of making people connect and exchange views across functions and departments.

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this paper, a conceptual framework for service innovation process that is grounded on foresight and service design is presented, based on a large body of literature from four burgeoning fields of study: dynamic capabilities, service innovation, foresight, and design.
Abstract: Identifying opportunities for service innovation and exploiting them requires novel capability building in the rapidly changing business environments. This study extends the existing literature on dynamic capabilities in service innovation by operationalizing the capabilities of sensing and seizing new opportunities. The purpose of this chapter is to examine how futures thinking and design thinking can facilitate service innovation from the dynamic capabilities point-of-view. As a result this chapter provides a conceptual framework for service innovation process that is grounded on foresight and service design. To synthesize the literature into a new conceptual framework, this chapter is based on a large body of literature from four burgeoning fields of study: dynamic capabilities, service innovation, foresight, and service design. The key point the chapter wishes to make is that a forward look at new methodological perspectives in service innovation is needed and that integrating the methods and tools of foresight and service design to the service innovation process provides a promising new avenue to future success.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a comparative analysis of planning approaches in two organisations linked through common ownership is presented, where data generated from planning documentation and the foresight practice of strategy personnel in the two cases (transport and banking) provided support for a dynamic model of foresight integrated LT planning.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a synthesis of how services are understood, how they are likely to develop and how future development can be studied more closely in the forest-based sector (FBS).
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze and provide a synthesis of how services are understood, how they are likely to develop and how future development can be studied more closely in the forest-based sector (FBS). Services are likely to have an increasing role in the FBS in the future. Design/methodology/approach – The findings are based on a literature review of FBS outlook studies, strategies and programs and services-related studies in FBS and general services literature. Three case examples of services businesses in FBS companies are presented, and possible foresight approaches related to them are discussed. Foresight methods used in parallel sectors are also discussed. Findings – The study provides the first systematic introduction, classification and review of FBS services to include both industry- and non-industry-related services. The paper also points out the need for foresight studies and suggests various approaches for an analysis of the potential of FBS services in the future bioec...

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Aug 2015-Futures
TL;DR: A real-time Delphi study, entitled, "The Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” was conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries to debate the forces that might diminish or enhance futures work as discussed by the authors.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In insights on how regionally implemented foresight contributes to regional innovation systems and thereby contribute to the emerging research stream on FSS, the conceptualization of a foresight support system is presented.

Posted Content
01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this paper, an integrated approach involving the complementary functions of foresight, intelligence and business analytics is proposed for monitoring an industrial program's use so that any problems can be corrected early on.
Abstract: Creating industrial programmes, especially in technology, is fraught with high levels of uncertainty. These programmes target the development of products that will not be sold for several years; therefore, one of the risks is that the products will no longer be in demand due to the emergence of more advanced technologies. The paper proposes an integrated approach involving the complementary functions of foresight, intelligence and business analytics. The tools of foresight and intelligence are focused on the external environment and enable industry and researchers to, among other things, understand the direction in which markets and technologies are evolving, and profile local industries to determine which policy instruments may be effective in these industries. Signals picked up today through externally focused intelligence studies can be used to confirm conclusions from longer term foresight initiatives such as scenarios, roadmaps and scans, thereby providing the information needed to establish the long-term industrial policy that science and technology related industries require. The authors propose a dashboard for monitoring an industrial programme’s use so that any problems can be corrected early on. The dashboard relies on both information available in open sources and that accessible to a government. Combining foresight, intelligence and business analytics is believed to notonly decrease uncertainty and risk but also make it more likely that the policy is implemented by its intended audience and that industry opportunities are identified at an early stage. To illustrate how this approach works in practice, the paper discusses a hypothetical case of a state programme to develop the nutraceuticals industry in Canada.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, an approach is presented that describes how a foresight-based strategy development approach can be designed in order to leverage the potential of middle management, which is applied in strategy development to the supply chain management of a multinational manufacturing company.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In a challenging address to the 18th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Doha in 2012, the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon urged the global community to respond with conscientious foresight.
Abstract: Climate change and environmental disasters are destabilising communities across the world. In a challenging address to the 18th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Doha in 2012, the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon urged the global community to respond with conscientious foresight. This article discusses how social work might respond to this challenge. It outlines the social implications, social work theorists’ reconceptualisation of the environmental space as a domain of practice and ways that the global social work community can act to address these significant global challenges.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the future prospects of innovative services linked to sustainable energy systems and examined service perspective in the context of socio-technical transition and linked to the bottom-up and top-down social processes that foster sustainability.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the future prospects of innovative services linked to sustainable energy systems. Design/methodology/approach – Service perspective is examined in the context of socio-technical transition and linked to the bottom-up and top-down social processes that foster sustainability. The foresight method applied is trend analysis. Findings – Two groups of trends were identified: the trends driven by technological development and the trends focussing on societal, managerial and consumer issues. The former consists of renewable energy sources, hybrid solutions, smart grids and smart energy markets. The latter involves distributed energy production, demand response, optimisation of sustainability and the role of energy as an opportunity and as service. The study reveals that energy is increasingly understood as a comprehensive and tailor-made service solution for communities and individual households. Consumers will enter the energy market as active participants; it ra...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article documents and demonstrates the development and implementation of a foresight support system tailored for the German Federal Armed Forces and provides a holistic approach to strategic foresight incorporating the rules of order in foresight processes, foresight method combinations, mechanisms for the reuse of foresight activity results, and collaborative decision-making.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector, where they used primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the methodological approach and first results of the ongoing national level foresight process organized in Lithuania in the context of preparing the smart specialisation strategy and defining the national research and innovation priorities.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This Special Issue on the future role of ICT in foresight introduces nine informative articles that present the most recent research on foresight support systems, which form the basis for ongoing scientific debate in this new research stream.