Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2016"

Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda

Abstract: While the concept of the Anthropocene reflects the past and present nature, scale and magnitude of human impacts on the Earth System, its true significance lies in how it can be used to guide attitudes, choices, policies and actions that influence the future. Yet, to date much of the research on the Anthropocene has focused on interpreting past and present changes, while saying little about the future. Likewise, many futures studies have been insufficiently rooted in an understanding of past changes, in particular the long-term co-evolution of bio-physical and human systems. The Anthropocene perspective is one that encapsulates a world of intertwined drivers, complex dynamic structures, emergent phenomena and unintended consequences, manifest across different scales and within interlinked biophysical constraints and social conditions. In this paper we discuss the changing role of science and the theoretical, methodological and analytical challenges in considering futures of the Anthropocene. We present three broad groups of research questions on: (1) societal goals for the future; (2) major trends and dynamics that might favor or hinder them; (3) and factors that might propel or impede transformations towards desirable futures. Tackling these questions requires the development of novel approaches integrating natural and social sciences as well as the humanities beyond what is current today. We present three examples, one from each group of questions, illustrating how science might contribute to the identification of desirable and plausible futures and pave the way for transformations towards them. We argue that it is time for debates on the sustainability of the Anthropocene to focus on opportunities for realizing desirable and plausible futures.

Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future

Abstract: Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.

Evolution Cum Agency: Toward a Model of Strategic Foresight

Abstract: This study examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial services—Charles Merrill’s financial supermarket business model—through three well-known and largely juxtaposed conceptual models of strategic foresight. Our study, whose purpose, business historical focus, and structure mirrors Graham Allison’s famous “Conceptual Models of the Cuban Missile Crisis,” allows us to make three contributions. First, it sharpens our understanding of the models we used in the study. Second, it provides the foundations of an integrated view and model of strategic foresight that suggests disciplined strategic foresight is possible, understandable, and replicable within some precise boundaries. Finally, it suggests directions for future behavioral strategy work.

An introduction to Prospective Multiple Attribute Decision Making (PMADM)

Abstract: .In recent years futures science has received a great deal of attention and has gained world-wide credibility in the science community as the science of tomorrows. The countless applications of futures studies in various fields have been a major breakthrough for mankind. Undoubtedly, decision making is one of the most significant aspects of shaping the future and an integral part of any credible future research. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) in general and Multiple Attribute Decision Making in particular (MADM), are among the most remarkable subparts of the decision making process. The most recent model developed using the MADM method is the Dynamic MADM. The model does not specifically concentrate on the future actions and approaches and remains to be fully explored. This research presents a new concept and a new approach in the MADM field which is called the Prospective Multiple Attribute Decision Making (PMADM). The PMADM model can very well cover the DMADM concept but instead choose...

Incorporating a systemic and foresight approach into smart city initiatives: The case of Spanish cities

Abstract: At the dawn of the twenty-first century, cities face serious societal, economic, environmental, and governance challenges. Under the term “Smart City,” numerous technology-based initiatives are emerging to help cities face contemporary challenges while the concept itself is evolving towards a more holistic approach. Nevertheless, the capability of smart initiatives to provide an integrated vision of our cities is still very limited. Eventually, many of these initiatives do not fulfill satisfactorily their initial objectives because they fail to understand the complexity, diversity, and uncertainty that characterize contemporary cities. The purpose of this paper is twofold: to display an urban functional system, capable of interpreting the city in a more holistic way, and to incorporate foresight tools so as to formulate Smart City visions in a more participatory way with the involvement of local stakeholders.

Precision Nutrition 4.0: A Big Data and Ethics Foresight Analysis—Convergence of Agrigenomics, Nutrigenomics, Nutriproteomics, and Nutrimetabolomics

Abstract: Nutrition is central to sustenance of good health, not to mention its role as a cultural object that brings together or draws lines among societies. Undoubtedly, understanding the future paths of nutrition science in the current era of Big Data remains firmly on science, technology, and innovation strategy agendas around the world. Nutrigenomics, the confluence of nutrition science with genomics, brought about a new focus on and legitimacy for "variability science" (i.e., the study of mechanisms of person-to-person and population differences in response to food, and the ways in which food variably impacts the host, for example, nutrient-related disease outcomes). Societal expectations, both public and private, and claims over genomics-guided and individually-tailored precision diets continue to proliferate. While the prospects of nutrition science, and nutrigenomics in particular, are established, there is a need to integrate the efforts in four Big Data domains that are naturally allied--agrigenomics, nutrigenomics, nutriproteomics, and nutrimetabolomics--that address complementary variability questions pertaining to individual differences in response to food-related environmental exposures. The joint use of these four omics knowledge domains, coined as Precision Nutrition 4.0 here, has sadly not been realized to date, but the potentials for such integrated knowledge innovation are enormous. Future personalized nutrition practices would benefit from a seamless planning of life sciences funding, research, and practice agendas from "farm to clinic to supermarket to society," and from "genome to proteome to metabolome." Hence, this innovation foresight analysis explains the already existing potentials waiting to be realized, and suggests ways forward for innovation in both technology and ethics foresight frames on precision nutrition. We propose the creation of a new Precision Nutrition Evidence Barometer for periodic, independent, and ongoing retrieval, screening, and aggregation of the relevant life sciences data. For innovation in Big Data ethics oversight, we suggest "nested governance" wherein the processes of knowledge production are made transparent in the continuum from life sciences and social sciences to humanities, and where each innovation actor reports to another accountability and transparency layer: scientists to ethicists, and ethicists to scholars in the emerging field of ethics-of-ethics. Such nested innovation ecosystems offer safety against innovation blind spots, calibrate visible/invisible power differences in the cultures of science or ethics, and ultimately, reducing the risk of "paper values"--what people say--and "real values"--what innovation actors actually do. We are optimistic that the convergence of nutrigenomics with nutriproteomics, nutrimetabolomics, and agrigenomics can build a robust, sustainable, and trustworthy precision nutrition 4.0 agenda, as articulated in this Big Data and ethics foresight analysis.

Real-time foresight : preparedness for dynamic innovation networks

Abstract: Collaborative innovation processes in unpredictable environments are a challenge for traditional management. But new demands in a global digital society push public and corporate leadership to collaborate ad hoc, without predictable goals and planned working rules. In this study, an actor-network approach (ANT) is combined with critical incident technique (CIT) to elaborate dynamic network principles for a new real-time foresight (RTF). Real-time foresight replaces traditional planning and strategic management in ad hoc multi-sector collaborations. Although ANT originates from science and technologies studies, it is here applied to a management problem due to ist ability to merge voluntaristic and evolutionary managerial components and micro- and macro perspectives. The investigation is placed in an exemplary management field of high dynamics: global disaster management. From process analysis and from comparison of three dynamic innovation networks that emerged around Indian coastal villages after Tsunami 2004, five dynamic network patterns are obtained which underly successful collaborative innovation processes. These dynamic structures build the agenda for a new real-time foresight, and for an instrument to evaluate in real-time the emergence of dynamic innovation networks (DINs).

Human centred science and technology—transdisciplinary foresight and co-creation as tools for active needs-based innovation governance

Abstract: Current governance structures are increasingly showing inability to address complex issues such as the Grand Challenges. Dealing with these highly interrelated, cross cutting, extensive and potentially open ended issues requires research, development and innovation to be oriented towards societal needs and demands. Here, developing and applying sustainable long term strategies for socio-technical change on the basis of socially robust knowledge seems inevitable and using the tools of anticipatory governance—forward looking and participation—is essential in order to govern innovation actively and responsibly. Yet, expert-based forward looking has its limits, especially when considering long term perspectives, and may fail to include all necessary opinions. Thus, stakeholder engagement has become a norm over the last decades, but including laypeople into forward looking science, technology and innovation (STI) governance is underexplored. Here, strategy and policy programme development may be well suited to function as early entry point for public needs and values into the innovation process. This paper will briefly review the theoretical basis for transdisciplinary forward looking and provide first insights into an ongoing highly deliberative and reflexive foresight and co-creation process engaging science, society and policy makers, CIMULACT—Citizen and Multi-Actor Consultation on Horizon2020. We will especially focus on the role of technology within a collective visioning exercise that allowed for shared explorations of desirable futures, thereby collecting tacit knowledge as well as social needs and values. Integrating these with stakeholders’ and experts’ knowledge serves for co-creating socially robust knowledge for orienting policy and strategy programming towards needs based science, technology and innovation.

Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education.

Abstract: Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension—past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can provide a suitable entry point for futures work. In this paper, we describe how we have used futures themes, concepts and techniques both implicitly and explicitly in our undergraduate middle school teacher education courses and, in particular, science curriculum and general studies courses. Taking a critical orientation to the past and the present in these courses enables the future to be more than a mere reproduction of the status quo and opens up a range of possible futures in the areas of current interest. For example, having studied middle school teaching and learning in mathematics and science, students explore the past, present and possible future of a natural part of a university campus. In a general studies course on the science of the Earth’s atmosphere, students construct a normative futures scenario on living in a changing climate. One way to gain insight into an uncertain future is to construct scenarios. This technique has been used since the 1970s to bring issues of environment and development—areas with strong science content—to the attention of both scientists and policymakers.

Foresight and the third mission of universities: the case for innovation system foresight

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to argue that innovation system foresight (ISF) can significantly contribute to the third mission of universities by creating an active dialogue between universities, industry and society. Design/methodology/approach – This paper’s approach is conceptual. The authors analyse the third mission and relevant literature on innovation systems and foresight to explain how and why foresight contributes to the third mission. Findings – The authors propose that foresight contributes to the third mission of universities, particularly to the research and development and innovation dimensions through the development of joint understanding of the agendas and future needs of stakeholders. In addition, foresight enables education to be designed to address identified needs. Research limitations/implications – The findings are both conceptual and exploratory in nature. Thus, the argument needs further examination through a broader study on foresight in the university–industry context and/or longi...

Foresight in cities: on the possibility of a “strategic urban intelligence”

Abstract: Purpose This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method. Findings The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence. Practical implications The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis. Originality/value The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.

Where Next for Social Protection

Abstract: The rapid ascendancy of social protection up the development policy agenda raises questions about whether its current prominence will be sustained, or whether it will turn out to be just another development fad. What trajectory will social protection follow, which actors will drive it forward and what will be the main issues and challenges? This article reports on a small foresight study designed to address the question: ‘Where next for social protection?’ A scenario-building exercise revealed that there is no single linear pathway for social protection, but multiple highly context-specific trajectories subject to change as political ideologies and institutional capacities shift. A ‘wind-tunnelling’ exercise highlighted the importance of a country’s political regime as a fundamental determinant of which social protection policies will be adopted. Better understanding of political processes is needed to protect gains made in social protection against possible reversals when the political climate shifts against pro-poor redistributive policies.

Foresight Study on the Risk Governance of New Technologies: The Case of Nanotechnology

Abstract: Technology-led innovation represents an important driver of European economic and industrial competitiveness and offers solutions to societal challenges. In order to facilitate responsible innovation and public acceptance, a need exists to identify and implement oversight approaches focused on the effective risk governance of emerging technologies. This article describes a foresight study on the governance of new technologies, using nanotechnology as a case example. Following a mapping of the governance landscape, four plausible foresight scenarios were developed, capturing critical uncertainties for nanotechnology governance. Key governance elements were then stress tested within these scenarios to see how well they might perform in a range of possible futures and to inform identification of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for nanotechnology governance in Europe. Based on the study outcomes, recommendations are proposed regarding the development of governance associated with the responsible development of new technologies.

Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars

Abstract: The megatrends towards both a digital and a usership economy have changed entire markets in the past and will continue to do so over the next decades. In this work, we outline what this change means for possible futures of the mobility sector, taking the combination of trends in both economies into account. Using a sys-tematic, scenario-based trend analysis, we draft four general future scenarios and adapt the two most relevant scenarios to the automotive sector. Our findings show that combing the trends from both economies provides new insights that have often been neglected in literature because of an isolated view on digital technology only. However, service concepts such as self-driving car sharing or self-driving taxis have a great impact at various levels including microeconomic (e.g., service and product design, business models) and macroeconomic (e.g., with regard to ecological, economical, and social impacts). We give a brief outline of these issues and show which business models could be successful in the most likely future scenarios, before we frame strategic implications for today’s automobile manufacturers.

Quantitative analysis of technology futures: A review of techniques, uses and characteristics

Abstract: We have benefited from comments on a preliminary draft of this paper from Jessica Bland, Michael Hopkins, Ben Martin, Rafael Ramirez and Andy Stirling. We are indebted to Alan Porter for his thorough review, which helped to improve the paper. We are grateful to two anonyous reviewers for insightful comments and to the SPP editor. All errors and omissions are our own responsibility. A first report form of this paper was prepared as part of the project financed by Nesta on 'Research into the quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures'. We acknowledge further support from the US National Science Foundation (Award No. 1064146 'Revealing Innovation Pathways: Hybrid Science Maps for Technology Assessment and Foresight'). The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors, do not necessarily reflect the views of the US National Science Foundation, and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

Design and the Future: Temporal politics of ‘making a difference’

Abstract: It’s difficult to know what the future holds. The future is by no means empty – it will be occupied by built environments, infrastructures and things that we have designed. It will bear the consequences of our histories, structures, policies and lifestyles, which we daily (re)produce by habit or with intent in design. The future is already loaded with our fantasies, aspirations and fears, by persuasively designed visions and cultural imaginaries. Designed things, lifestyles and imaginaries, or ‘stuff-image-skill’, endure, proliferate and occupy the future. By (re)producing things, lifestyles and imaginaries, design takes part in giving form to what will be in the future. Discussions of the future may raise questions such as what can be known about the future and how. In design research, such epistemological questioning can become preoccupied with the nature and scope of knowledge and recourse to more established ways of relating to such questions from the natural and social sciences. However, futurity is more than an epistemological question. Contemporary philosopher Elizabeth Grosz, for example, poses a potential of futurity that is given precisely by the ontological assumption that the future is different. It is, categorically, not the past nor the present. From this perspective, futurity can be a conceptual modality through which it is possible to ask: How can things be different? The future as different is a political as well as a philosophical question. That things can be different also raises political questions about what can, or should, change and what difference that makes. As design takes part in giving form to the future, to possible or preferred futures, we need more and critical ways of relating to issues of futurity. In this chapter, I reflect upon issues of futurity for design. I briefly characterize ‘concept’, ‘critical’ and ‘persuasive’ design practices, because they explicitly take on the future by formulating visions, speculating on alternatives and steering toward particular ideals. While important in my own work as a practice-based design researcher, these practices expose issues that I problematize here in terms of futurity. I have (re)positioned my own work over the years, and, increasingly, in relation to futures studies and philosophies of time as illustrated here through a description of the project ‘Switch! Energy Futures’. Suggesting that futurity can be a philosophical and political modality for ‘seeing and acting’ differently in and through design, I frame two proposals to invite further work in design research and design anthropology.

Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

Abstract: Purpose This paper aims to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues. Have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity? Have urban planners used adequate tools to generate plausible future visions? Are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty? Design/methodology/approach In total, 20 city foresight examples were selected which either have international relevance or which constitute good examples of future-oriented initiatives. Case studies were classified into five taxonomies: European Union initiatives; local initiatives; academic initiatives; corporate initiatives; and architectural initiatives. A set of assessment criteria was established: city complexity conceptualization; methodological approach; and study impact. Findings Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools used in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies. Research limitations/implications Some of the initiatives studied are relatively recent, so impact analysis has been limited by available data. Mostly, secondary documented sources were used to validate cases’ assessment. Research suggests a number of areas in which foresight studies may have a practical application to the urban realm. Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the effort for assessing and improving forward-looking activities undertaken at cities through a set of criteria which take into consideration the complexity and diversity of contemporary cities.

Managing The Future Foresight In The Knowledge Economy

Abstract: Thank you very much for reading managing the future foresight in the knowledge economy. As you may know, people have look hundreds times for their chosen readings like this managing the future foresight in the knowledge economy, but end up in infectious downloads. Rather than enjoying a good book with a cup of coffee in the afternoon, instead they juggled with some infectious bugs inside their desktop computer.