Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2020"

Outlook on biofuels in future studies: A systematic literature review

Abstract: Foresight methods are useful for long-range planning such as strategic energy management, energy policy, and renewable and sustainable energy planning to manage uncertainties. Futures studies may affect the anticipation and speculation of future and emerging technologies. In this paper, biofuels futures are explored based on a critical evaluation of the literature to draw the state-of-the-art for the future-oriented biofuel research. A six-fold typology mapping from two main futures studies methodologies is used. (i) descriptive scenarios, forecasts, and statistical scenarios as descriptive methods; (ii) roadmaps, visions, and backcasts as prescriptive methods. The expectations embodied in the literature are then explored through deriving research challenges about the future of biofuels: (1) the main motives and driving forces in a biofuel era; (2) the main obstacles or difficulties confronting a biofuel era; (3) the plausibility and importance of each of different scenarios; (4) key technological breakthroughs for the bioeconomy; (5) details about development, maturity and flourish; (6) biofuel era's significant achievement. The literature explains a wide range of plausible futures, from centralized systems related to technological breakthroughs to decentralized systems based on small-scale renewable. Fundamental technological elements are uncovered, and a plausible biofuel economy is drawn along with the necessary pathway to reach it. The review shows a general agreement that a biofuel economy would develop gradually, and a prompt shift to biofuels would require powerful governmental support coupled with significant disruptions such as changes in environmental principles of countries, technology breakthroughs, higher oil prices, and urgency of climate change.

Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios.

Abstract: Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows.

Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance: Different conceptions of the future and implications for the present

Abstract: In times of accelerating earth system transformations and their potentially disruptive societal consequences, imagining and governing the future is now a core challenge for sustainability research and practice. Much social science and sustainability science scholarship increasingly engages with the future. There is, however, a lack of scrutiny of how the future is envisioned in these literatures, and with what implications for governance in the present. This article analyses these two aspects, building on the concept of “anticipatory governance.” We understand anticipatory governance to broadly mean governing in the present to adapt to or shape uncertain futures. We review perspectives within public policy, futures studies, social–ecological systems, environmental policy and governance, transition studies, science and technology studies, and responsible research and innovation literatures. All these literatures engage explicitly or implicitly with the notion of anticipatory governance, yet from distinct ontological and epistemological starting points. Through our review, we identify four approaches to anticipatory governance that differ with regard to (a) their conceptions of and engagement with the future; (b) their implications for actions to be taken in the present; and (c) the ultimate end to be realized through anticipatory governance. We then map onto these four approaches a diverse set of methods and tools of anticipation that each engages with. In concluding, we discuss how these four approaches provide a useful analytical lens through which to assess ongoing practices of anticipatory governance in the climate and sustainability realm.

Artificial Intelligence in Innovation: How to Spot Emerging Trends and Technologies

Abstract: Firms apply strategic foresight in technology and innovation management to detect discontinuous changes early, to assess their expected consequences, and to develop a future course of action enabling superior company performance. For this purpose, an ever-increasing amount of data has to be collected, analyzed, and interpreted. Still, a major part of these activities is performed manually, which requires high investments in various resources. To support these processes more efficiently, this article presents an artificial-intelligence-based data mining model that helps firms spot emerging topics and trends at a higher level of automation than before. Its modular structure consists of components for query generation, data collection, data preprocessing, topic modeling, topic analysis, and visualization, combined in such a way that only a minimum amount of manual effort is required during its initial set up. The approach also incorporates self-adaptive capabilities, allowing the model to automatically update itself once new data has become available. The model parameterization is based on latest research in this area, and its threshold parameter is learnt during supervised training using a training data set. We have applied our model to an independent test data set to verify its effectiveness as an early warning system. By means of a retrospective analysis, we show in three case studies that our model is able to identify emerging technologies prior to their first publication in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. Based on our findings, we derive both theoretical and practical implications for the technology and innovation management of firms, and we suggest future research opportunities to further advance this field.

Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management

Abstract: This article introduces the construct of corporate foresight to a strategy and management scholars audience. Corporate foresight is a dynamic, firm level capability that allows firms to evaluate an...

Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities : An Exploratory Study

Abstract: Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance.

Foresight as a Tool for the Planning and Implementation of Visions for Smart City Development

Abstract: Global change, including population growth, economic development and climate change constitute urgent challenges for the smart cities of the 21st century. Cities need to effectively manage their development and meet challenges that have a significant impact on their economic activity, as well as health and quality of life for their citizens. In the context of continuous change, city decision-makers are constantly looking for new smart tools to tackle it. This article addresses this gap, indicating foresight as an effective tool that anticipates the future of a smart city. Its aim is to develop a methodology for planning and implementing a vision of smart city development based on foresight research. The proposed methodology consists of five stages and was developed with the use of methodology for designing hybrid systems. It is an organised, transparent and flexible process which can facilitate the development of sustainable and smart future visions of smart city development by virtue of the involvement, knowledge and experience of a large number of urban stakeholders at all stages of its creation. The article discusses in detail the operationalisation of each stage of the methodology in which the following main methods were used: megatrend analysis, factors analysis: social (S), technological (T), economic (E), ecological (E), political (P), relating to values (V) and legal (L) (STEEPVL), structural analysis, Delphi, creative visioning, scenarios and identifying actions related to the development of a smart city, divided into four categories: new, so far not undertaken (N); implemented so far, to be continued (C); redundant, to be discontinued (R); actions that have been implemented in the past and to be restored (R) (NCRR). The summary enumerates the benefits that foresight implementation can bring to the smart city.

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035.,The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis.,Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors.,The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.

Dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies

Abstract: This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help companies to shape these interactions for achieving positive outcomes.,This conceptual paper is based on prior literature streams, which were interrelated through an abductive research process. This iterative conceptualization approach led to the formation of testable propositions that advance the understanding on the interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies.,The framework demonstrates the existence of an actions cycle between strategic foresight and knowledge management through a constructivist perspective, where one can improve the other. These interactions can be useful both for the development of emerging technologies and for identifying these innovations in market that can be applied in companies. Hence, all these dynamic interactions do not point to a hegemonic relationship of one construct over the others, but for the value equality among them.,Although current literature points to the existence of relationships among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, the dynamism inherent in these interactions as well as their positive effects for companies’ results are not properly discussed. This paper fills such a gap and proposes directions for future research.

A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning

Abstract: Originally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of the future vision in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability based on empirical research.

The future of the circular economy and the circular economy of the future

Abstract: The circular economy (CE) has gained momentum in recent years as a new economic paradigm. While the CE sets a very defined vision for a sustainable future, it still operates in the present. As such, existing guidance on and research into the CE lack a necessary understanding of how to go from the present to the future. What if the future is different from what the CE expects? The CE cannot answer this question adequately and therefore is not capable of developing this understanding alone. To address this shortcoming, this paper proposes futures studies (FS) as a complementary discipline because it offers exactly what CE lacks: methods to explore alternative futures.,To understand the level of interdisciplinary research in the built environment between CE and FS, a systematic literature review is carried out using a bibliometric review and a snowballing technique. This manuscript reviews seminal literature in both fields and their theoretical background.,This paper demonstrates the lack of collaboration between CE and FS and highlights a systemic failure within CE, which is to consider the future as unknowable. It further provides an initial understanding of where the synergy sits, recommendations on where to start and introduces some of the FS chief methods that could be used by CE in the built environment.,The authors’ bibliometric review and snowballing approach might have missed out on some literature that still falls within the scope. Such limitations are due, on one hand, to the authors’ bibliometric review approach by selecting publications based on matching keywords. On the other hand, the snowballing approach is affected by the authors’ subjective judgements on which of the publications are worth to explore based mainly just on the title and abstract of the paper.,The inclusion of Futures Studies will allow a stronger focus on approaching possible futures to be integrated overtly into existing work, research and action within the CE community.,It is more reasonable to expect that by cooperatively creating and implementing constructed futures with FS methods and CE principles, a better future for the built environment be reached. This is why it is so relevant for humanity that these two communities start to interact as soon as possible and maintain and open and productive collaboration in transitioning towards a sustainable society.,To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first of its kind by considering FS into the CE debate.

After the toolkit: anticipatory logics and the future of government

Abstract: Introducing a special issue of Policy Design and Practice on designing future governments, this article draws on growing interest in the concepts and practices of anticipation, foresight and design...