Topic
Futures studies
About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.
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TL;DR: Futures studies not only considers wickedly complex problems, but it is itself a wicked entity, with many puzzles and contradictions as mentioned in this paper, which is why many of the most important futures-thinkers are outside the entity.
26 citations
TL;DR: The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis, and finds that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035.,The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis.,Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors.,The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.
26 citations
TL;DR: In an interdependent and complex world, only few public policy challenges can be confined to one particular policy area anymore as discussed by the authors, and many governments have started to experiment with strategic foresight that deliberately cuts across the traditional boundaries of policy areas and government departments.
Abstract: In an interdependent and complex world, only few public policy challenges can be confined to one particular policy area anymore. Many governments have realized that a single-issue focus is often insufficient in dealing with emerging threats and opportunities. They have therefore started to experiment with strategic foresight that deliberately cuts across the traditional boundaries of policy areas and government departments. This article reviews the foresight activities of three countries that have been at the forefront of this trend: the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands. To this end, the article discusses the concept of strategic foresight and explains the two distinct ways in which it contributes to public policy-making: on the one hand, it informs policy by providing more systematic knowledge about relevant trends and developments in an organization's environments; on the other hand, it acts as a driver of reflexive mutual social learning processes among policy-makers that stimulate the generation of common public policy visions. The article concludes by drawing lessons with regard to the key success factors allowing strategic foresight to make an effective contribution to public policy-making.
26 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors categorised and analyzed the academic publications and understand the contents of foresight, the empirical cases, benefits and benefits, the foresight methodology, the risk and implementation framework, and the implications for Taiwan's foresight projects.
Abstract: This research is to categorise and analyse the academic publications and understand the contents of foresight, the empirical cases of foresight, the benefits of foresight, the foresight methodology, the risk and implementation framework of foresight to answer the pressing concerns for Taiwan's foresight projects by the overview and organisation of journal paper on national foresight. This research applies the SDOS search engine of Inderscience and Elsevier to screen 494 relate papers published from 1984 to 2005 in which 117 key papers were selected. By doing this, three distinct periods, four trends and six implications for Taiwan of national technology foresight are identified.
25 citations
TL;DR: The strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning is presented, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can beused to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities.
Abstract: The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time-consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward-looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad-minded, forward-looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York State. The plan identified solutions that should be effective across a range of possible futures. Illustrating the application of strategic foresight to identify conservation opportunities should provide the impetus for decision makers to explore strategic foresight as a way to support more proactive conservation policy, planning, and management.
25 citations