Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

Politics of Designing Visions of the Future

Abstract: Scenarios for policy and the public are increasingly given form by designers. For design, this means ideas about the future – futurity – is at stake, particularly in genres of ‘concept’, ‘critical’ and ‘persuasive’ design. While critical approaches are present in futures studies and political philosophy, design assumptions and preferences are typically not explicit, including gender norms, socio-ecological practices and power structures. Calling for further studies of the politics of design visions, I outline possible approaches and elaborate through the example ‘Switch! Energy Futures’. I reflect upon how competing visions and politics of sustainability become explicit through our process, aesthetics and stakeholders.

Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight

Abstract: Foresight has become an ‘institutional’ activity as more emphasis has been given to the active participation of stakeholders to shape the future of society. As a key element of foresight, participation improves the quality of foresight exercises through the engagement of both scientific and nonscientific knowledge, and stakeholder values and preferences. It is through the participation of stakeholders and a process of dialogue that mutual understanding and learning among participants are achieved, which increases the legitimacy of foresight exercises. The overall aim of this chapter is to strengthen the foresight literature with novel concepts and ideas which are rooted in the participation literature. This will assist foresight researchers and practitioners to better understand various rationales of participation and to determine the type and extent of participation that is desirable for different types of foresight exercises. This objective is largely achieved, initially through a review of the participation literature as a useful input for the current foresight literature, which is also reviewed extensively. The chapter therefore presents a synthesis of the relevant literature, which constitutes a practical reference for foresight practitioners on how to accomplish and sustain participation and dialogue in foresight.

Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel

Abstract: Wildland fire management faces unprecedented challenges in the 21st century: the increasingly apparent effects of climate change, more people and structures in the wildland-urban interface, growing costs associated with wildfire management, and the rise of high-impact fires, to name a few. Given these significant and growing challenges, conventional fire management approaches are unlikely to be effective in the future. Innovative and forward-looking approaches are needed. This study explored wildland fire management futures by using methods and diverse perspectives from futures research. To gain foresight for wildland fire management, we convened a foresight panel consisting of seven leading academic and professional futurists outside of the wildfire community and two wildfire professionals. We engaged the panelists in a series of structured online discussions to elicit their insights and perspectives on the future of wildland fire management. There are five broad areas where the foresight panel members were in full agreement. (1) The level of uncertainty about external developments and future conditions that will set the context for wildland fire management is significantly greater than is recognized in current planning. (2) As conditions change, the traditional fire prevention and suppression approach to wildfire management will prove unsustainable. (3) A new fire resilience approach is emerging as an alternative to traditional viewpoints and practices. (4) All the major strategies needed to implement this approach are already familiar to wildfire managers. (5) There are strong short-term barriers to adopting the fire resilience approach, but the panelists believe its adoption is nearly inevitable between now and mid-century.

Green technology foresight of high technology: a social shaping of technology approach to the analysis of hopes and hypes

Abstract: High tech visions play an important part in public technology policy and are often promoted through technology foresights. The article presents and analyses results from a green technology foresight of nano-, bio- and information- and communication technologies initiated by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency with the purpose of acquiring knowledge about the environmental potentials and risks related to the three areas of technology. The foresight was organised with a social shaping of technology (SST) approach to the field in order to cater for the complex relationship between societal demands, technology options, innovation dynamics and environmental impacts. The approach involved studying actor-networks, laboratory programmes and technology trajectories as well as deconstructing different stakeholders’ high tech visions. The identified environmental potentials and risks related to the three areas of technology and recommendations for future governance of research, innovation and application area...

Sweden beyond oil: Nuclear commitments and solar options

Abstract: The project "Energy and Society," sponsored by the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies, has studied different indigenous energy sources as alternatives to imported oil in Sweden. One alternative is nuclear energy, antoer is renewable energy. Large uncertainties are associated with both alternatives today. The main characteristics of an energy policy for the rest of the century that does not foreclose either of these options have been identified. Such a policy will have to be based on an understanding of similarities and differences between the alternatives. A nuclear and a solar energy system have been outlined as a basis for an analysis of technical, economic, and institutional issues.