Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

The future role of logistics for global wealth – scenarios and discontinuities until 2025

Abstract: Purpose – The aim is to present research results on global logistics scenarios 2025 with focus on the future contribution the logistics industry can make to the triple bottom line – people, planet and profit. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted within the scope of an interdisciplinary foresight conference, where a group of 216 renowned persons from 16 countries in business, academia and politics discussed policies and strategies for the future role of logistics as an enabler and driver of global wealth. Attendants were asked to share their visions of the future via a real-time Delphi study. The results were further discussed in futures workshops according to World Cafe methodology for group dialog. Findings – Based on extensive desk research of scenario studies, expert workshops, and creative sessions, the authors developed 20 key Delphi projections for global logistics in 2025. Experts were asked to rate the projection's probability, impact, and desirability as well as to provide rea...

Quantitative analysis of technology futures: A review of techniques, uses and characteristics

Abstract: We have benefited from comments on a preliminary draft of this paper from Jessica Bland, Michael Hopkins, Ben Martin, Rafael Ramirez and Andy Stirling. We are indebted to Alan Porter for his thorough review, which helped to improve the paper. We are grateful to two anonyous reviewers for insightful comments and to the SPP editor. All errors and omissions are our own responsibility. A first report form of this paper was prepared as part of the project financed by Nesta on 'Research into the quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures'. We acknowledge further support from the US National Science Foundation (Award No. 1064146 'Revealing Innovation Pathways: Hybrid Science Maps for Technology Assessment and Foresight'). The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors, do not necessarily reflect the views of the US National Science Foundation, and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

Foresight in a multi-level governance structure: policy integration and communication

Abstract: Foresight is widely interpreted as the process of fostering scientific research to support technological innovation and hence regional and national competitiveness. Policy integration, across administrative levels, is seen as crucial to achieving these goals. Our analysis looks at policies and their integration in the contexts of science, Foresight and governance at regional, national, European and global levels and we draw some conclusions relevant to their implementation, particularly at the regional level. We use Scotland as an illustrative example, where the recent devolution settlement has, at least in some areas, allowed greater freedom of action. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Securing the future of the natural environment: using scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature

Abstract: Summary 1. Maintaining and protecting biodiversity for the future under changing environmental and socio-political conditions is a major challenge. Scenarios are used as decision-making aids for natural resource management at local to global scales. Scenarios are underutilised by conservationists at a local level, where they can be highly effective for anticipating change. 2. People’s values and attitudes are crucial in determining the future, yet they are rarely placed at the centre of scenario exercises. Novel methods have been developed to fully integrate people’s worldviews into scenario planning. The ethnographic futures framework focuses on how changes occur through human agency and how they will be felt by society in the future. The three horizons approach considers how different ideas and paradigms become more, or less, dominant in society over time. 3. Natural England (NE), the statutory adviser to the UK Government on the natural environment in England, carried out a scenario planning process using these novel approaches. The scenarios consider a wide range of global and local factors and investigate their impact upon the natural environment in England, to 2060. 4. A set of four contrasting scenarios was produced. Despite their differences, nature was always highly valued in some form; ultimately, the state of the natural environment was determined not by natural forces but by societal choice. 5. Synthesis and applications. Scenario planning allows the development of key visions for the future. These can be used to establish, and influence, the direction of future trends and their impacts on the natural environment, particularly in the context of a shifting basis for conservation policy that seeks to enhance ecological resilience. The scenarios are being used within NE to help local communities shape the future of their natural environment; this process can be utilised by governments or environmental agencies elsewhere. This study demonstrates that across a range of scenarios the future state of the natural environment is very much a matter of societal choice. Decision-making frameworks for environmental conservation must take proper account of ecological knowledge, societal values, foresight and complexity.