Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

Strategic European Integration Scenarios of Ukrainian and Polish Research, Education and Innovation Spaces

Abstract: A comprehensive study was conducted in the direction of research and institutional support and comparison with the nearest neighbour - Poland, to determine the current state and justify strategic scenarios for Ukraine's integration into the research, educational and innovation spaces of the EU as a source of proactive sustainable innovative development. Analysis of the use of foresight technology to determine the possible future, create the desired image of the future and determine strategies to achieve it using methods developed in various research areas revealed that its application makes sense in determining long-term factors, trends and directions of national economies. That is, in foresighting, in contrast to forecasting, the emphasis is made on qualitative rather than quantitative results, which does not provide the expected targeted policy of the state, because it does not give clear, concrete results of actions - quantitative strategic benchmarks, monitoring which would control the process of these areas' development. The disadvantages of foresighting methods that limit its application are identified. Scientific substantiation of strategic scenarios of European integration of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces is based on the concept of sustainable development, which is grounded on applied systems theory, management theory and economic cybernetics and comprises the stages of identifying and strategizing. Identification is carried out taking into account the definition of the safe existence boundaries and simultaneous norming and integrated convolution of indicators and thresholds of education and innovation. Comparison on one scale of integrated indices of education and innovation makes it possible to carry out the goal-setting stage, identify possible strategic development scenarios and build the desired development trajectories, i.e., to implement the principle of strategizing "the future is determined by the trajectory into future." Thus, knowledge of the desired values of integrated indices in each year makes it possible, through their decomposition by the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory, to justify the values of indicators that provide the desired growth trajectory and achieve certain goals of research, educational and innovative spaces of Ukraine and Poland.

Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives

Abstract: This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios.

Perceptions of risk in cyberspace

Abstract: Sociology, information and computer sciences, communications, and economics are among the perspectives of 15 papers commissioned by the British government's Foresight project on Cyber Trust and Crime prevention. The project was charged with exploring the application and implications of new generations of information and communication technologies in selected areas that are expected to present future opportunities and challenges for crime prevention. They consider possible drivers of the evolution of cyberspace, opportunities created by innovations in technology, threats and barriers to cyberspace development, and the feasibility of various crime prevention measures.

Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective

Abstract: In the face of accelerated change and genuine uncertainties in the business environment as well as the need of processing and interpreting the information coming from majority of sources, foresight research in the enterprises comes into prominence. The main aim of the article is to assess foresight maturity of companies based in Podlaskie province in Poland as one of the least developed regions in Europe. The survey research is preceded by bibliometric analysis and literature review to examine current tendencies in foresight research in organisations. The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the existing works on organizational foresight are that foresight is no longer referred to only as a portfolio of methodologies through which organizations may garner a broader vision and probe the future to ascertain potential competitive landscapes but also as a human or organisational competence. Therefore, the research is based on a foresight maturity model developed by Grim (J Futur Stud 13(4):69–80, 2009). The model, besides traditionally associated foresight components such as environmental scanning, takes into consideration such aspects as leadership, collective vision building, and planning. Pilot survey research carried out among 134 production and services enterprises based in the Podlaskie region has allowed us to state that the companies are characterised by low foresight maturity levels. Hence, based on a literature review, two management concepts are suggested as means to increase the level of foresight maturity in companies.