Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

The future urban road: A systematic literature review-enhanced Q-method study with experts

Abstract: In an era of complexity, rapid technological advance and need for climate change action, urban roads may need to transform. The aim of this research is to identify the concepts underpinning the fundamental dimensions of the future urban road and open up an interdisciplinary dialogue about its delivery. We used a combinatorial approach incorporating a Systematic Literature Review to a Q-method. The Systematic Literature Review identifies 28 transforming concepts and organises them into five categories, namely: efficiency, safety, liveability, accessibility, and smart technology. Through a Q-method study, 50 transport experts “described” the urban road of the future. Four main factors emerged classifying the experts into: People-First Techno-Centrists (smart technology used as an enabler of human-centric transport futures), Autonomous Vehicles Sceptics, (AVs should not be the key paradigm-changer) Unconventionalists (shared road space and mixed uses should prevail) and Infrastructurists (safety-first multimodal infrastructure interventions should lead any change). The main dilemmas that arise are: a) prioritisation of modes: human first or not? b) share or segregate? and c) design systems or roads?

Exploration of internal and external indicators of social change in sustainable communities: A futures perspective

Abstract: This thesis addresses some of the most pressing issues of contemporary society, such as widespread unsustainable practices, including armed conflict, and the worldviews underlying them, as well as the likely consequences of the current social change. Conflicts and rapid changes taking place in our postmodern society need to be evaluated and understood in a broader historical context, to enable progress towards sustainable futures. The wide historical perspective of this research is facilitated by macrohistory, and more specifically Sorokin Pitirim’s theory of social change (the pendulum model). Macrohistory, as methodology, is embedded in the discipline of futures studies. This thesis by publication proceeds from analysis of external indicators of social change to ever deepening layers of internal indicators, as expressed in sustainable communities. Firstly, the thesis presents case studies of three sustainable communities as representatives of the three categories constituting the innovative taxonomy Models of Sustainable Communities, developed by the author of this thesis. These three sustainable communities: Damanhur (Italy), Toarps Ekoby (Sweden) and Masdar City (United Arab Emirates), offer diverse ‘slow living’ alternatives to the prevailing fast paced Western lifestyle. Further, analysis of external indicators of social change was completed through case studies of sustainable communities (Sippy Downs, Australia, and Masdar City, United Arab Emirates) by contrasting their external features and underlying worldviews, to elicit trends in the social change of the 21st century. The macrohistory analysis based on the above case studies found that Western society is currently in the late sensate phase of sociocultural development, based on Sorokin’s pendulum theory, and is transitioning into the next idealistic epoch.; Submitted in the fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, University of the Sunshine Coast, 2017.

A systems perspective as a tool to understand disruption in travel and tourism

Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from the outside, with the outbreak of COVID19 as a case study Design/methodology/approach: This conceptual paper concisely discusses the notion of systems thinking and the concept of complex adaptive systems and puts this in the context of contemporary society in general and travel and tourism in particular Strategic foresight and scenario planning are introduced as an approach to anticipate disruptions in the complex adaptive travel and tourism system Findings: As COVID-19 has demonstrated, travel and tourism is sensitive for disruptions from the outside To ensure long-term resilience and sustainability, a systems approach embedded in strategic foresight and scenario planning is emphasised Practical implications: Strategic foresight and scenario planning is a competence that can be learned Originality/value: Given the present status of COVID-19 and other disruptors on travel and tourism, a resilient approach to the future is necessary;thus, the value of this viewpoint paper is the proposition of an adaptive capacity system This paper offers advice to understand and manage complexity and adaptive systems © 2020, Albert Postma and Ian Seymour Yeoman