Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities (TEFMIBO)

Abstract: Purpose – The objective of this study is to provide a support tool for managers to identify future business opportunities. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed model consists of eight-steps. For the first step the authors propose two studies: trends analysis and change drivers' identification; these help to identify the most relevant trends in areas that may affect the business activities. All this information is put into a Delphi process with the help of experts in order to find the common denominator of where the future is going; afterwards, with this information, the authors can build events and scenarios for the business opportunities. Then, a diagnostic of the study area, sector or organization through the dynamic diagnostic methods is performed. Findings – Once the opportunities have been identified, a strategic analysis that allows decision making to prioritize and define the activities or projects that may be achievable in the future is done, and the result of the process is a portfolio of b...

The Future of Knowledge Sharing in a Digital Age: Exploring Impacts and Policy Implications for Development

Abstract: We live in a Digital Age that gives us instant access to information at greater and greater volumes. The rapid growth of digital content and tools is already changing how we create, consume and distribute knowledge. Even though globally participation in the Digital Age remains uneven, more and more people are accessing and contributing digital content every day.Over the next 15 years, developing countries are likely to experience sweeping changes in how states and societies engage with knowledge. These changes hold the potential to improve people’s lives by making information more available, increasing avenues for political and economic engagement, and making government more transparent and responsive. But they also carry dangers of a growing knowledge divide influenced by technology access, threats to privacy, and the potential loss of diversity of knowledge. The book examines the underlying principles that guide effective teaching in an age when everyone, and in particular the students we are teaching, are using technology. The book enables teachers and instructors to help students develop the knowledge and skills they will need in a digital age: not so much the IT skills, but the thinking and attitudes to learning that will bring them success. In 2014, the Institute of Development Studies conducted a horizon scanning research project to look at digital technologies and their potential impact on development, focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, over the coming 15 years. Using Foresight methods – a range of horizon-scanning tools and approaches based on scenario development – this research gathered knowledge and insights from a range of people working with digital technologies representing different perspectives: development agencies, government, librarians, ICT professionals and the private sector. Through interviews and two workshops, in London and Centurion, South Africa, participants identified key drivers of change and developed scenarios for different futures. Foresight methodology, especially the creation of scenarios, allows us to creatively imagine various futures while taking account of the evidence we already have…

A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy

Abstract: Purpose Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape. Design/methodology/approach The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia. Findings The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate. Originality/value A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.