Topic
Futures studies
About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.
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Journal Article•
109 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors put forward a concept for the identification and analysis of future development options of technological innovation systems, which is a methodology to identify coherent socio-technical and organizational variants within a specific innovation field.
108 citations
TL;DR: The application of scenario planning methods to identifying disruptive innovations at an early stage, mapping out potential development paths for such innovations, and building appropriate organizational capabilities are described.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the application of scenario planning methods to: identifying disruptive innovations at an early stage, mapping out potential development paths for such innovations, and building appropriate organizational capabilitiesDesign/methodology/approach – A combination of scenario planning with technology road‐mapping, expert analysis and creative group processes The techniques described can be integrated with traditional tools of strategic technology planning The paper presents a short illustrative case study and examples from practiceFindings – Scenario techniques can be successfully applied to analysing disruptive innovationPractical implications – Scenario techniques help guide managers to more effective decision making by preparing for a wide range of uncertainty and by counteracting typical biases of over‐optimism and decision “framing” The techniques presented can be used in executive development and in strategic planning for innovative and high‐tech
107 citations
29 Mar 2006
107 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that strategy in the face of complex foresight horizons should consist of an on-going set of practices that interpret and construct the relationships that comprise the world in which the firm acts.
Abstract: What is a strategy? The answer to this question ought to depend on the foresight horizon: how far ahead, and how much, the strategist thinks he can forsee. When the very structure of the firm's world is undergoing cascades of rapid change, and interpretations about the identity of agents and artifacts are characterized by ambiguity, we say that the foresight horizon is complex. We argue that strategy in the face of complex foresight horizons should consist of an on-going set of practices that interpret and construct the relationships that comprise the world in which the firm acts. Our discussion focuses on two intertwined kinds of strategic practices. The first is cognitive: a firm "populates its world" by positing who lives there and interpreting what they do. The second structural: the firm fosters generative relationships within and across its boundries---relationships that produce new sources of value that cannot be foreseen in advance. We illustrate the ideas advanced in the paper with a story about the entry of ROLM into the PDX market in 1975.
107 citations