Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

The use of Delphi method in the process of building a tourism development strategy in the region

Abstract: The aim of the article is to show the applicability of the Delphi method in the process of building a tourism development strategy in the region. The analysis of the regional tourism development strategies, as well as of the literature indicates that the Delphi method has not yet been used in research in the area of tourism in Poland. The foreign literature, however, contains the examples of its use, starting from the eighties of the twentieth century. The article presents the framework of the research process using the Delphi method. It also presents the theses and the research questionnaire developed by the experts from the tourism sector from the Podlaskie Voivodship within the framework of the research project "Foresight as a tool to improve tourism management in the region". Indication of the possibility of applying the Delphi method in the process of building a tourism development strategy in the region will be an opportunity to build a vision of the future, based on the experience and expertise of the stakeholders in the field of science, administration, business, non-governmental organizations, protected areas, cultural institutions and media. Supporting the strategic planning process through the substantial involvement of experts and stakeholders will enable the joint development of the social vision of the future of tourism development by the parties concerned and to uphold a sense of need for its implementation.

The development and use of the UK environmental futures scenarios: perspectives from cultural theory

Abstract: This paper addresses links between the UK Foresight Programme's Environmental Futures scenarios and grid-group cultural theory. The scenarios were originally intended to inform thinking about developments in the environmental policy arena in the United Kingdom over the period 2010-40. They have subsequently been used in a variety of fields, ranging from energy futures through to crime prevention. The four scenarios were based on a two-by-two grid defined by two axes relating to social values and governance systems. The paper discusses the correspondence between the four scenarios and the four cultural types defined by grid-group cultural theory. It is argued that these linkages go some way towards explaining the apparent universal appeal and scope of the four Environmental Futures scenarios. The paper goes on to explore patterns of usage of the scenarios and the ways in which users have interpreted the original scenario work. Finally, the paper argues that insights from cultural theory could be used to develop the scenarios further; for example, by enhancing their capacity to deal with 'surprises' as opposed to incremental developments.