Topic
Futures studies
About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.
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TL;DR: In this article, a case study of community based participatory approaches involving community scenario writing and community visioning, which enacts a collaborative engagement between futures researchers and climate-vulnerable communities is presented.
Abstract: This paper points to the value of broadening the palette of approaches to climate change futures beyond the dominant methods of empiricist predictive trends and expert scenarios. The first half of the paper contextualises the climate change discourse within the field of futures studies and explores potential points of dialogue between a number of futures approaches and the most prominent of the climate protection work. The second half of the paper introduces a case study of community based participatory approaches involving community scenario writing and community visioning, which enacts a collaborative engagement between futures researchers and climate-vulnerable communities. However, any participatory futures method chosen to facilitate climate change adaptation must be context-aware in both its design and implementation if it is to facilitate adaptability and resilience in climate-vulnerable communities.
90 citations
09 Sep 2016
TL;DR: The authors examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial services through three well-known and largely juxtaposed conceptual models of strategic foresight, and provides the foundations of an integrated view and model of strategic forecasting.
Abstract: This study examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial services—Charles Merrill’s financial supermarket business model—through three well-known and largely juxtaposed conceptual models of strategic foresight. Our study, whose purpose, business historical focus, and structure mirrors Graham Allison’s famous “Conceptual Models of the Cuban Missile Crisis,” allows us to make three contributions. First, it sharpens our understanding of the models we used in the study. Second, it provides the foundations of an integrated view and model of strategic foresight that suggests disciplined strategic foresight is possible, understandable, and replicable within some precise boundaries. Finally, it suggests directions for future behavioral strategy work.
87 citations
Book•
30 May 2002
TL;DR: This chapter discusses the role of Scenario Planning Software for Collaborative Working Foresight into Insight Healthcare 2010, and the importance of linking Scenarios into the Organisation.
Abstract: About the Authors Acknowledgements Abbreviations Introduction Part I: Evolution in the Use of Scenarios Summary Vision 2000 A Scenario Project to re--orient ICLa s portfolio From data to scenarios Information markets Use in corporate planning Using scenarios in teams Adopting existing scenarios Lessons Learned Part II: Scenario Thinking Summary Strategy and Scenarios. Where are we now? Forecasts Pitfalls and Pratfalls Evolutionary models for cultural change Where next? Conclusions Part III: Making scenarios work Summary The Environment for Scenario Thinking The Stages of a Project Getting started Deciding the question Interviews and workshops Scenario creation Scenarios to plans Linking Scenarios into the Organisation Main points Part IV: Case Studies Summary A Study in Turkey Preparing for a New Environment of Energy of Statoil New Car Distribution of the Future Reframing Industry Boundaries for Structural Advantage -- the role of Scenario Planning Software for Collaborative Working Foresight into Insight Healthcare 2010 Scenarios: Guiding a Vision for Predictive Medicine A Trading Group Lessons Learned and Conclusions References Index
87 citations
TL;DR: The transition of futures studies from an insubstantial "perspective" to an applied discipline has been discussed in this paper, where the authors explore some of the reasons for the transition of FS from a relatively insular perspective to a more applied one.
Abstract: This article explores some of the reasons for the transition of Futures Studies (FS) from an insubstantial “perspective” to an applied discipline. It begins with an outline of the author's own starting points and continues with a brief account of critical futures studies. It reviews how this perspective was implemented in master's courses within three universities and describes aspects of the knowledge base of FS that emerged at the time. Finally, the article traces some of the links between the intellectual foundations of FS and emerging applications in a variety of organizations. It concludes that the kinds of knowledge and capability created will be increasingly useful throughout society in negotiating the turbulence ahead.
87 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the potential of multicriteria decision-making methods in this kind of priority-determination and examine the limitations of these methods in the foresight context.
Abstract: In recent years, many countries have carried out foresight exercises to better exploit scientific and technological opportunities. Often, these exercises have sought to identify ‘critical’ or ‘key’ technologies or, more broadly, to establish research priorities. In this paper, we consider the potential of multicriteria decision-making methods in this kind of priority-determination and examine the limitations of these methods in the foresight context. We also provide results from a combined evaluation and foresight study where multicriteria methods were deployed to support the shaping of research and technology development activities in the Finnish forestry and forest industry. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
87 citations