scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Topic

Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.


Papers
More filters
01 Jan 2009
TL;DR: Jim Dator has specialized in understanding and developing "alternative futures". He periodically assesses the range of futures as seen by experts and futurists and by people in various settings where he serves as a futurist as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Jim Dator has specialized in understanding and developing "alternative futures". He periodically assesses the range of futures as seen by experts and futurists and by people in various settings where he serves as a futurist. These expert and popular images change over time, and some reflect that lack of thought about the future. But for three decades Dator has compressed the range of futures into four archetypes – continued growth, collapse/decline, conserver/disciplined society, and high tech transformation. As co-founder of the Institute for Alternative Futures and futures mentor to Clem Bezold, his approach has been significant in the origins and evolution of IAF's aspirational futures approach. Aspirational futures has organizations or communities generate several scenarios: a most likely, best intelligence future that usually parallels a continued growth image; a challenge scenario that considers significant responses to "what could go wrong"; and one or two visionary scenarios that identify future visionary conditions and alternative paths to get there.

55 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an innovation policy road mapping (IPRM) framework for linking R&D results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design, and explore the methodological background of the IPRM method and outline its policy rationale.
Abstract: The systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been much discussed recently. This paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) as a methodological framework for linking R&D results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design. The paper explores the methodological background of the IPRM method and outlines its policy rationale. It also illustrates IPRM with two case studies from Australia and Finland. The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies. The paper concludes by assessing the policy implications of the IPRM approach. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

55 citations

01 Nov 2005
TL;DR: In this article, a scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development, to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what method and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes.
Abstract: Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to predict the future, forecasts and what-if scenarios are of interest. If the user wants to think in terms of several possible futures, perhaps in order to be able to adapt to several different types of outcomes, explorative scenarios may be useful. If the user wants to search for scenarios fulfilling specific targets, and maybe link this to actions that can be taken towards the visions, normative scenarios should be the choice. Those three approaches to scenario studies are different. By emphasising the user's perspective to scenario studies, we have argued that the choice of scenario category is not only a question of the character of the studied system. Instead, the user's world view, perceptions and aim with the study can be even more important for the choice of approach.

55 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A review of the evolution of corporate and organizational foresight within the Technology Forecasting & Social Change (TED) journal is presented in this paper, where the authors discuss how these authors have cumulatively defined and evolved this portion of the strategic foresight field, from integrating technology with market forecasting, to expanding forecast approaches to include multiple futures and integrating foresight to create agile and adaptive organizations.

55 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explore the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level.

55 citations


Network Information
Related Topics (5)
Sustainability
129.3K papers, 2.5M citations
81% related
Globalization
81.8K papers, 1.7M citations
81% related
Government
141K papers, 1.9M citations
80% related
Corporate governance
118.5K papers, 2.7M citations
80% related
Politics
263.7K papers, 5.3M citations
78% related
Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20241
2023323
2022665
2021145
2020155
2019173